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December 2022


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25 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Was 13/14 14/15 17/18 close to those cold winters? 

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1917-1918 25.7 0
2 1880-1881 26.5 0
3 1903-1904 27.3 0
4 1919-1920 27.4 0
5 1874-1875 27.7 4
- 1872-1873 27.7 0
6 1904-1905 28.1 0
7 1935-1936 28.3 0
8 1976-1977 28.4 0
- 1884-1885 28.4 0
- 1882-1883 28.4 0
9 1892-1893 28.6 0
- 1887-1888 28.6 0
10 1878-1879 29.0 2
11 1933-1934 29.1 0
12 1871-1872 29.5 2
13 1962-1963 29.9 0
- 1922-1923 29.9 0
- 1885-1886 29.9 0
- 1876-1877 29.9 0
14 1947-1948 30.0 0
- 1886-1887 30.0 0
- 1883-1884 30.0 0
15 1894-1895 30.2 0
16 1977-1978 30.3 0
17 1969-1970 30.5 0
- 1944-1945 30.5 0
18 1911-1912 30.7 0
19 1958-1959 30.8 0
20 1993-1994 31.1 0
- 1934-1935 31.1 0
21 2002-2003 31.2 0
- 1967-1968 31.2 0
- 1909-1910 31.2 0
- 1870-1871 31.2 4
22 2014-2015 31.4 0
- 1921-1922 31.4 0
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1917-1918 25.7 0
2 1880-1881 26.5 0
3 1903-1904 27.3 0
4 1919-1920 27.4 0
5 1874-1875 27.7 4
- 1872-1873 27.7 0
6 1904-1905 28.1 0
7 1935-1936 28.3 0
8 1976-1977 28.4 0
- 1884-1885 28.4 0
- 1882-1883 28.4 0
9 1892-1893 28.6 0
- 1887-1888 28.6 0
10 1878-1879 29.0 2
11 1933-1934 29.1 0
12 1871-1872 29.5 2
13 1962-1963 29.9 0
- 1922-1923 29.9 0
- 1885-1886 29.9 0
- 1876-1877 29.9 0
14 1947-1948 30.0 0
- 1886-1887 30.0 0
- 1883-1884 30.0 0
15 1894-1895 30.2 0
16 1977-1978 30.3 0
17 1969-1970 30.5 0
- 1944-1945 30.5 0
18 1911-1912 30.7 0
19 1958-1959 30.8 0
20 1993-1994 31.1 0
- 1934-1935 31.1 0
21 2002-2003 31.2 0
- 1967-1968 31.2 0
- 1909-1910 31.2 0
- 1870-1871 31.2 4
22 2014-2015 31.4 0
- 1921-1922 31.4 0

1976-77 was mediocre for snow though....one bonus of the new pattern is much less suppression and more bombing of coastal lows so more snow.  That kind of extreme cold isn't good for snow in our area.

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era  around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1917-1918 25.7 0
2 1880-1881 26.5 0
3 1903-1904 27.3 0
4 1919-1920 27.4 0
5 1874-1875 27.7 4
- 1872-1873 27.7 0
6 1904-1905 28.1 0
7 1935-1936 28.3 0
8 1976-1977 28.4 0
- 1884-1885 28.4 0
- 1882-1883 28.4 0
9 1892-1893 28.6 0
- 1887-1888 28.6 0
10 1878-1879 29.0 2
11 1933-1934 29.1 0
12 1871-1872 29.5 2
13 1962-1963 29.9 0
- 1922-1923 29.9 0
- 1885-1886 29.9 0
- 1876-1877 29.9 0
14 1947-1948 30.0 0
- 1886-1887 30.0 0
- 1883-1884 30.0 0
15 1894-1895 30.2 0
16 1977-1978 30.3 0
17 1969-1970 30.5 0
- 1944-1945 30.5 0
18 1911-1912 30.7 0
19 1958-1959 30.8 0
20 1993-1994 31.1 0
- 1934-1935 31.1 0
21 2002-2003 31.2 0
- 1967-1968 31.2 0
- 1909-1910 31.2 0
- 1870-1871 31.2 4
22 2014-2015 31.4 0
- 1921-1922 31.4 0

There is a million times better chance of the Jets winning 10 consecutive Super Bowls than 1917-1918 being replaced as the coldest winter......that record is safe 

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18 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some charts to illustrate the ongoing trends:

image.jpeg.b7232bde0b39264da1edf158cd6b71da.jpeg

image.jpeg.a5aa101975578f4240a78ef1c28d4bb0.jpeg

image.jpeg.3196c3b645bbbe4fb10955116b6c7c23.jpeg

 

Thanks Don!

I tend to think it's 75% natural cyclical warming, 25% human induced. 

What is odd is it seems that April has been colder than average the last 10 years. May be a statistical anomaly.

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6 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

When did you first begin to notice that?

 

Well,, I have lived in Upstate NY for 5 years. Every year, especially here in Central NY, has been exceptionally warm, with heat records being broken left and right. Every single winter has been well-below normal snowfall. It's been especially hard here in lower elevations, where the warmth just floods in. While thaws are normal during winter, it's just been M.I.A. and seriously like an eternal November. I lived in Michigan for a decade before this, and it was very similar. I saw the decline of winter in the Great Lakes throughout the teens. Hopefully it's just a "blip" but I am doubtful.

Winters up here remind me of a somewhat snowier version of what they were like when I was growing up in Southeastern PA. Rarely any pure snowstorms anymore. 

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Took a look at the LR guidance and it still looks good as we head into mid/late month.

Only December 6, a long way before the solstice. 

I will say if the LR guidance overnight is correct (and we all know that's a big IF), then 2012/2013 looks like a better analog (east half of sub forum benefits more).

Does anyone have the 12/13 snowfall totals for central park? 

SW CT ended up approx. 129% of average annual snowfall.

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2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Well,, I have lived in Upstate NY for 5 years. Every year, especially here in Central NY, has been exceptionally warm, with heat records being broken left and right. Every single winter has been well-below normal snowfall. It's been especially hard here in lower elevations, where the warmth just floods in. While thaws are normal during winter, it's just been M.I.A. and seriously like an eternal November. I lived in Michigan for a decade before this, and it was very similar. I saw the decline of winter in the Great Lakes throughout the teens. Hopefully it's just a "blip" but I am doubtful.

Winters up here remind me of a somewhat snowier version of what they were like when I was growing up in Southeastern PA. Rarely any pure snowstorms anymore. 

Thanks for the reply. If you are looking for a Christmas gift for yourself, I suggest buying So Cold a Sky...it is a great book!!

https://www.amazon.com/Cold-Upper-Michigan-Weather-Stories/dp/097781890X/ref=tmm_pap_swatch_0?_encoding=

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6 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at all the cold we had in the late 1800s....if we had an even more complete climate record going back to when NYC was first settled, would any winter after 1917-18 be in the top 20?!

 

Still emerging from the last mini ice age and have a ways to go before we plateau.

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7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Look at all the cold we had in the late 1800s....if we had an even more complete climate record going back to when NYC was first settled, would any winter after 1917-18 be in the top 20?!

 

The 1810’s are supposed to be the coldest decade of recorded history, after the 1808/9 eruption and Tambora in 1815. 

The late 1700’s had some incredible cold, too. 

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7 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Took a look at the LR guidance and it still looks good as we head into mid/late month.

Only December 6, a long way before the solstice. 

I will say if the LR guidance overnight is correct (and we all know that's a big IF), then 2012/2013 looks like a better analog (east half of sub forum benefits more).

Does anyone have the 12/13 snowfall totals for central park? 

SW CT ended up approx. 129% of average annual snowfall.

Mostly from 2 storms, Feb and March had a monster each month

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20 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The last time we had a top 10 coldest winter was 1976-1977.  The last top 20 was 93-94. 14-15 would be the coldest of the last decade coming in at 22nd place. But while February had impressive sustained cold, the lowest temperatures never really came close to the 76-94 era around the region. It’s funny that NYC couldn’t go below 0°in February 2015, but did it in the record warm winter on Valentines Day 2016. 
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
1 1917-1918 25.7 0
2 1880-1881 26.5 0
3 1903-1904 27.3 0
4 1919-1920 27.4 0
5 1874-1875 27.7 4
- 1872-1873 27.7 0
6 1904-1905 28.1 0
7 1935-1936 28.3 0
8 1976-1977 28.4 0
- 1884-1885 28.4 0
- 1882-1883 28.4 0
9 1892-1893 28.6 0
- 1887-1888 28.6 0
10 1878-1879 29.0 2
11 1933-1934 29.1 0
12 1871-1872 29.5 2
13 1962-1963 29.9 0
- 1922-1923 29.9 0
- 1885-1886 29.9 0
- 1876-1877 29.9 0
14 1947-1948 30.0 0
- 1886-1887 30.0 0
- 1883-1884 30.0 0
15 1894-1895 30.2 0
16 1977-1978 30.3 0
17 1969-1970 30.5 0
- 1944-1945 30.5 0
18 1911-1912 30.7 0
19 1958-1959 30.8 0
20 1993-1994 31.1 0
- 1934-1935 31.1 0
21 2002-2003 31.2 0
- 1967-1968 31.2 0
- 1909-1910 31.2 0
- 1870-1871 31.2 4
22 2014-2015 31.4 0
- 1921-1922 31.4 0

Great post. I would’ve thought 03-04 would be up there but I was wrong 

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6 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The 1810’s are supposed to be the coldest decade of recorded history, after the 1808/9 eruption and Tambora in 1815. 

The late 1700’s had some incredible cold, too. 

Yes there's an excellent book written by David Ludlum that mentions this, in the late 1700s and early to mid 1800s, there were a few winters where both NYC and Philly received 100" of snow and in the Poconos more than 12 feet of snow!

 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

Mostly from 2 storms, Feb and March had a monster each month

One of the benefits of being in the northeast, always in the game for a monster like Feb 2006, March 2018, Feb 1983 etc etc. Also one or two big storms are how the coastal plain usually adds up snowfall.

Was definitely back loaded however we also scored 4 inches that December so NOT a shut out early on. 

Even if NEMO was a pedestrian 10 inch event we would have reached average annual snowfall that year.

 

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8 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Yes there's an excellent book written by David Ludlum that mentions this, in the late 1700s and early to mid 1800s, there were a few winters where both NYC and Philly received 100" of snow and in the Poconos more than 12 feet of snow!

 

Early American Winters Volumes 1 & 2...must reads for any weather enthusiast. 

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10 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Unsolved Mysteries should do a show on the disappearance of the Alberta Clipper!

 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

We had them at least once a month back in the 80s....they were good for 2-4 or even 3-5 inches sometimes.

I don’t miss them drying up on radar crossing the mountains as a kid 

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Just now, LibertyBell said:

We had them at least once a month back in the 80s....they were good for 2-4 or even 3-5 inches sometimes.

They were great for providing reinforcing shots of cold air and at times some decent snow.  I think one of the reasons for the disappearance of them is the tendency for storms to hit the pacific NW.

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