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December 2022


dmillz25
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Just some quick and dirty ensemble data to be taken with a grain of salt.  All three LR models rather similar with snowfall  over the next 2 weeks or so.   These can and will change especially once to day 7 and beyond.  EURO members pretty weak though in terms of notable (4"+) snow for NYC.  Pattern is forecast rather wet so it is not that qpf will be lacking just not looking to be in the form of snow.   EURO also not bullish on any notable cold over next 2 weeks.  Again, will likely be some adjustments once to day 7 and beyond.  Just pointing out that at least based on 12Z run of ensemble means pattern does not look overly cold or snowy through 12/17.  Did not have time to dive into 500 mb. charts so this is just a snapshot based on the means.  We're hoping for the period after this to deliver the goods as far as cold and storminess so we'll see where all this heads.  I'm still favoring an active 12/20 to 12/30 period.

EURO MEMBER SNOWFALL.jpg

GFS SNOWFALL.jpg

CMC SNOWFALL.jpg

EURO SNOWFALL.jpg

EURO QPF.jpg

EURO TEMPS.jpg

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How does this compare pattern wise to last Dec? Was brutal, I remember, but don’t remember the individual components aside from the strong -PNA. 
 

I do recall last Dec was when I seriously started talking to my wife about moving north, lol. But then Jan was more than good relative to the outlook at the time. 
 

I believe flow was very progressive and we never had much blocking, so with the intense block coming up and hopefully less flexed -PNA by default we have more potential? Is that an adequate read?

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3 hours ago, bluewave said:

Chris - You mentioned the intensity of these echoes produced by Nemo.  Most of the radar obs that we speak of relating to weather comes from the NWS network of Dual-Pol Doppler sites.  The FAA also has a network of 80 radar sites (CARSR) around the country to serve its purposes.  I have read that these sites have the capability to monitor the weather and report it in the NWS six level format.  Do you know how the functionality of these sites/equipment compares to that of the NWS?

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1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said:

Local reservoirs still need some help around here.  Drove past one yesterday and it was noticeable. 

D0E1CCD4-C072-491E-AC3B-21F30A94CCBB.jpeg

 

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Stormy wet pattern continues.  Summer drought has been completely wiped out.

Some of the area might have made up some of the short term deficit but it will take more for longer to get us out of the hole. The soil has moistened but the groundwater levels haven't really come back yet as evidenced by all of the still dry areas that would be marshy and the rivers are really low. The reservoirs are down more than the usual couple of feet they'd be in early winter, some areas look to be as much as 8 feet down, it's going to take a ton of snow and a quick melt to bring them up quickly. 

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3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Some winter trends for New York City: Rising winter temperatures, rising seasonal snowfall, fewer but bigger events.


image.jpeg.3a0fd9e8cbbd86d6423bb9ee5156e5dd.jpeg

I’m kinda mixed on this. Sometimes a 2 incher really hits the spot. To freshen the pack and bring some ambiance. 
 

Yes, that’s what she said. Don’t anyone dare spring that on me. 
 

 

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23 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Chris - You mentioned the intensity of these echoes produced by Nemo.  Most of the radar obs that we speak of relating to weather comes from the NWS network of Dual-Pol Doppler sites.  The FAA also has a network of 80 radar sites (CARSR) around the country to serve its purposes.  I have read that these sites have the capability to monitor the weather and report it in the NWS six level format.  Do you know how the functionality of these sites/equipment compares to that of the NWS?

They are a great resource to show what is going on around the airports with a shorter range. I can remember one of NWS Mets commenting on using them during a severe storm outbreak to supplement the NWS radar. Since the radar echoes with snow were so intense during Nemo, they wrote a whole study on them. Maybe there was a location  between spotter measurements that picked up 7-8” inches in one hour. But with all the drifting, we may never be able to know for sure. I have heard 6” per hour rates. But there are always gaps between observations.


https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

Abstract

On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h−1. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors ZH near the surface.

 

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21 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

 

Some of the area might have made up some of the short term deficit but it will take more for longer to get us out of the hole. The soil has moistened but the groundwater levels haven't really come back yet as evidenced by all of the still dry areas that would be marshy and the rivers are really low. The reservoirs are down more than the usual couple of feet they'd be in early winter, some areas look to be as much as 8 feet down, it's going to take a ton of snow and a quick melt to bring them up quickly. 

I have a small stream from a spring that is rather consistently flowing…while it’s muddy again it’s not flowing again yet. 

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21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

They are a great resource to show what is going on around the airports with a shorter range. I can remember one of NWS Mets commenting on using them during a severe storm outbreak to supplement the NWS radar. Since the radar echoes with snow were so intense during Nemo, they wrote a whole study on them. Maybe there was a location  between spotter measurements that picked up 7-8” inches in one hour. But with all the drifting, we may never be able to know for sure. I have heard 6” per hour rates. But there are always gaps between observations.


https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/wefo/29/6/waf-d-14-00056_1.xml

Abstract

On 8–9 February 2013, the northeastern United States experienced a historic winter weather event ranking among the top five worst blizzards in the region. Heavy snowfall and blizzard conditions occurred from northern New Jersey, inland to New York, and northward through Maine. Storm-total snow accumulations of 30–61 cm were common, with maximum accumulations up to 102 cm and snowfall rates exceeding 15 cm h−1. Dual-polarization radar measurements collected for this winter event provide valuable insights into storm microphysical processes. In this study, polarimetric data from the Weather Surveillance Radar-1988 Doppler (WSR-88D) in Upton, New York (KOKX), are investigated alongside thermodynamic analyses from the 13-km Rapid Refresh model and surface precipitation type observations from both Meteorological Phenomena Identification Near the Ground (mPING) and the National Weather Service (NWS) Forecast Office in Upton, New York, for interpretation of polarimetric signatures. The storm exhibited unique polarimetric signatures, some of which have never before been documented for a winter system. Reflectivity values were unusually large, reaching magnitudes >50 dBZ in shallow regions of heavy wet snow near the surface. The 0°C transition line was exceptionally distinct in the polarimetric imagery, providing detail that was often unmatched by the numerical model output. Other features include differential attenuation of magnitudes typical of melting hail, depolarization streaks that provide evidence of electrification, nonuniform beamfilling, a “snow flare” signature, and localized downward excursions of the melting-layer bright band collocated with observed transitions in surface precipitation types. In agreement with previous studies, widespread elevated depositional growth layers, located at temperatures near the model-predicted −15°C isotherm, appear to be correlated with increased snowfall and large reflectivity factors ZH near the surface.

 

Thank you for your response.  Do you know of a site where the output from these sites can be accessed in real time?

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In the wake of today's rainfall, colder air will again move into the region. However, much milder conditions could return toward the middle of next week before additional cold air returns.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 23. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.57°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +18.32 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -1.685 today.

On December 1 the MJO was in Phase 8 at an amplitude of 0.473 (RMM). The November 30-adjusted amplitude was 0.953 (RMM).

 

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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

Would not change a single feature. NE Canada Ridge, Ural Ridge, Atlantic Low, Sea of Okhotsk Low, Western trough, Vortex passing by Alaska. Excellent.

624813549_index(95).thumb.png.7fdc1d5e8a6fa793631ef0da6030d6c7.png

I'm going to assume by my untrained eye that you mean that this sets the stage for a pretty cold stable pattern as the weeks evolve be we must be patient?

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Just now, Itryatgolf70 said:

I'm going to assume by my untrained eye that you mean that this sets the stage for a pretty cold stable pattern as the weeks evolve be we must be patient?

Sudden stratospheric warming occurs 15-30 days following that. Based upon the observations of those events in the research. That's a really really close match.

If one was looking for longer lasting -AO possibilities. The -NAO retrograding through that point, is a very good way to start looking. 

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12 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Sudden stratospheric warming occurs 15-30 days following that. Based upon the observations of those events in the research. That's a really really close match.

If one was looking for longer lasting -AO possibilities. The -NAO retrograding through that point, is a very good way to start looking. 

Ed O Toole is a strat expert and he seems intrigued as of now. I think he is from overseas.

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10 hours ago, bluewave said:

It was the only 30” one of our major stations.

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 30.5 2016-01-23 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 28.2 2016-01-24  

 


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 27.8 1996-01-08 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 27.5 2016-01-23 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 27.8 2013-02-09 0



 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 30.7 1996-01-08 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 32.5 1978-02-07 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for ALLENTOWN LEHIGH VALLEY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, PA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 31.9 2016-01-23 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Albany Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 42.2 1888-03-13 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Binghamton Area, NY (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 40.0 2020-12-17 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 27.6 2003-02-18 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Burlington Area, VT (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 35.3 2010-01-03 0


 

Maximum 2-Day Total Snowfall 
for Worcester Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Rank
Value
Ending Date
Missing Days
1 34.5 2015-01-27 0

That's amazing that both Allentown and JFK had their largest snowfall (and both 30"+) from the same storm!  They are so close in latitude, that has to be the reason why-- you can actually draw a straight line (well in a map projection lol) from Allentown to JFK.

But what I was actually trying to ask was-- was that JFK's first measurable snowfall of the season and is their total from the storm a record for the first snowfall of the season?

 

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11 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Man, couple years with highest max in the low 40’s and even one that looks like 38? 
 

Strictly in climatological terms I was born too late, I should’ve been born before Krakatoa went kaboom. 
 

Edit: Just realized that’s only the first week of Dec, originally thought it was the entire month. 

Tambora would have been even better.

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9 hours ago, bluewave said:

The reason we are seeing the models push things back is that the useful skill days 11-15 is often too low to detect a pattern change.  A useful skill score is defined as 0.6 or greater. So the best that the EPS can do in most cases is about 10.5 days. The GEFS and GEPS are about a day behind at 9.5. So even the highest scoring EPS day 11-15 is still too low skill to detect a pattern change from 1-5 and 6-10 with certainty. So this is why a pattern change showing up day 11-15 needs to make it to 6-10 to be believable. It’s also why we start to see big jumps sometimes right around day 8-10. It’s just the way these models are constructed. But that isn’t to say that a pattern change on the Pacific side can’t eventually happen. Just that you want to see it survive to day 8-10 in order to lock in the specific date.

 

https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/

 

Description: An Anomaly Correlation Coefficient (ACC) score of 1.0 indicates that the forecast was highly accurate (i.e., essentially perfect) across the Northern Hemisphere. A model is said to have "useful skill" when the ACC score is greater than or equal to 0.6. This plot shows the average forecast day (i.e., forecast length) when the ACC score falls below 0.6 and the GFS loses useful skill

 

EPS in green and GEFS black and GEPS red
 

5E058E04-5816-42C0-9434-899886BA2218.thumb.gif.fe0eedf65c6f7f48245f3197e007b513.gif

These models should all be contracted at 10 days and none of them should be allowed to run beyond that.

 

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