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December 2022


dmillz25
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In Pittsburgh for Christmas, really crazy conditions out here. -5 in the middle of the afternoon with 50 mph gusts, absolutely wild and incredibly cold. Near whiteout-conditions on the turnpike from blowing snow, and that was from just a few inches of accumulation. Some stations in the northern part of the state hit blizzard conditions.

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9 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we are going to torch through the first week of January

however, there is increasing confidence that the Pacific jet will retract after this timeframe. this will push the ULL over AK back to the Aleutians, likely allowing for a strong -EPO/+PNA to develop, similar to what we're seeing now. you can actually see the poleward wave breaking at 200mb. pretty good signal

blocking isn't showing its hand on the ensembles yet, but blocking in Jan is quite likely given how blocky this month was. the persistent negative anomalies in the Atlantic also point towards its development

so, we're going to have a reprieve, but it should be only that. winter may return in earnest around the 10th or so... Arctic flow would make Canada cold very quickly, and we're in peak climo at that point

gfs-ensemble-all-avg-npac_wide-z200_speed-1671818400-1672509600-1673200800-20-1.thumb.gif.2ab5b3835e623f26a59ae873453fc8f4.gifgfs-ensemble-all-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1671818400-1672509600-1673200800-20-1.thumb.gif.efc4f1052b45dab949b3befcd74bf364.gif

Agree. I've been watching this and was going to post something, but you nailed it. You can now see the series of wave breaks as the vortex retrogrades. We even see the ridge breaking in the east now too. With the tropical signal headed through 6,7,8. I'd consider it to be a likely progression at that. But just to add on, I mentioned no pain no gain with the AK vortex in a previous post and that is a good loop now.

So as that feature retrogrades back to the sea of Okhotsk. You start to crank up the heat in the strat as well. Which is what we like to see. This is also in accordance with the tropical signal. This is a situation that is nothing major yet, but will definitely have to be watched as there is real support for consequences up higher. Merry Christmas. 

index.thumb.png.ec69559421a4ca6c690aed51e31c6a79.png

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4 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Bottomed out at 7 degrees. Pretty impressive cold.

NYC is just 1° off the record low which hasn’t happened in late December since the 1980s.


 

12/23 -1 in 1883 6 in 1989 8 in 2022+
12/24 6 in 1983 7 in 2022 7 in 1872
12/25 -1 in 1980 4 in 1983 4 in 1872
12/26 3 in 1914 6 in 1872 8 in 1983+
12/27 6 in 1872 7 in 1914 8 in 1989+
12/28 8 in 1917 10 in 1933 10 in 1880+
12/29 -6 in 1917 -3 in 1933 4 in 1880
12/30 -13 in 1917 -6 in 1933 -6 in 1880
12/31 -7 in 1917 -3 in 1880 4 in 1962
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The last 8 days of December are averaging    32degs.(28/37) or -2.

Month to date is    39.7[-0.4].         December should end at 37.8[-1.3] for the current 30 Year Normal...........but +1.9 from the 1960's 30 Year Normal.

Reached 56 here yesterday overnight.

Today:   17-20, wind w-breezy, p. sunny, 18 tomorrow AM.

For those who enjoy the cold, the price to pay for this Gift of the Magi---is 10 50-degree days and a record high NY'sD.

1671861600-u05X7tIvQkc.png

8*(55%RH) here at 6am.{was 11 at midnight}.      Still 8* at 9am as it has been since 4am-held till after 10am.        11* at Noon.      15* at 3pm.

How it looked around the time of the lows for this AM:

1671885000-DpNeS40cyMQ.png

 

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Morning thoughts…

Following yesterday’s historic drop in temperatures, today will be mostly sunny and very cold.  High temperatures will reach the upper teens and lower 20s.  Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 19°

Newark: 21°

Philadelphia: 21°

Despite sunshine, it will again be very cold tomorrow.

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 42.1°; 15-Year: 43.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 42.6°; 15-Year: 43.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 43.9°; 15-Year: 44.9°

The last time New York City had a high temperature in the teens was January 31, 2019 when the high was 16°. The last time New York City had a high in the teens in December was December 28, 2017 when the temperature topped out at 17°.

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