December 2022

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Nice little event for interior areas. Maybe flakes for the coast.

if it happens, I’ll give you a lot of credit.you were calling for something this weekend. That’s close enough for me.

[Brian5671]

2 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

What's hilarious is after our window we mild up for the holidays. 

Going to be a small window then...LOL.    But yeah the xmas warmup is a tradition around here most years.

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Brian5671 said:

Going to be a small window then...LOL.    But yeah the xmas warmup is a tradition around here most years.

Yes very odd but wouldn't surprise me if we get more of an RNA pattern for a time. 

My prediction is we get some kind of snow event or two (maybe significant) in the 12/12-12/22 period followed by a possible cutter or SWFE in the 12/24-12/28 range and then more favorable after the new year. 

[Brian5671]

47 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Yes very odd but wouldn't surprise me if we get more of an RNA pattern for a time. 

My prediction is we get some kind of snow event or two (maybe significant) in the 12/12-12/22 period followed by a possible cutter or SWFE in the 12/24-12/28 range and then more favorable after the new year. 

The good news is that -NAO/-AO in December is often followed by more bouts of blocking later in the winter.    there are a few exceptions...89-90 it disappeared and never came back....

[MJO812]

[Franklin0529]

12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We were on this one bro. That block means business. I bet we get couple inches 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Franklin0529 said:

We were on this one bro. That block means business. I bet we get couple inches 

I think we have a chance

 

[kat5hurricane]

8 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

The point is historically we have a colder climate here, so it’s frustrating for someone who loves snow and cold. Of course things are different today when we have accelerated warming relative to other areas of the country. NJ I believe is 2.9F over pre-industrial? That’s huge.

We’re not Canada but neither are we the southeast. I think it’s reasonable to expect to have “a winter,” but of course between subjectivity of what that means and warming that’s becoming less and less reasonable.

Not to get tangential; in the Pleistocene the Laurentide extended to 40N, NYC. NA was able to extend its glaciers very far south. When I drive to work and see Manhattan I often try to visualize a fat glacier there instead, it’s wild. Not to ramble, I just mean we shouldn’t have to hug a Leprechaun every time it snows here. 

I do wonder how much longer the warming SST’s will pump up our snow totals instead of hurting them by warming the air mass too much. Is that a near future threat you think?

Personally, I don't care too much about cold if it comes without snow. We've had somewhat of a Golden Era of snow in the 2000s-2010s with tons of record snowstorms in that timeframe so I'd take that go along with warmer temps anytime over the less snowy but colder winters of yesteryear. 

My youth, in the 80s to early 90s, was filled with cold but dry winters and it sucked for the kid in me. The '93 Superstorm was a marvel for a kid like me that didn't get too experience many big snowstorms. Point being, we've been really spoiled the 20 year prior to this decade despite the warmer winters. What we've seen the last few winters is a correction to the norm, we were overdue for a clunker era.

Sorry to the mods for sending this off topic.

 

 

[Brian5671]

A wet snow bomb would be fun for someone

[EasternLI]

Put me down for an order of this. It's just nice to look at. 

[SnoSki14]

Nice to see threats showing up even if they aren't ideal just yet 

GEFS continue to make small improvements for our first system 

[Nibor]

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Put me down for an order of this. It's just nice to look at. 

I know we love to shit on the GFS here but it's nice to see some threats show up in the long range.

[HeadInTheClouds]

14 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Put me down for an order of this. It's just nice to look at. 

It's fantasy land but we can pray to the weather Gods. I find it funny that yesterday people were lamenting how warm and wet the GFS looked mid-late month. 

[Roger Smith]

10 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Triple phasers can track further east....there was one in 2004 or 2005 I think it was that hit Nova Scotia really hard.  One could argue that the tracks of triple phasers have been moving east with time if you track the historical progression of their storm tracks.

 

"White Juan" as we called it in the great white north, coming five months after Hurricane Juan hit Halifax hard in 2003. 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?jaar=2004&maand=2&dag=20&uur=000&var=1&map=2&model=noaa

Feb 19-20 2004 massive blizzard in Nova Scotia, PEI and parts of NL. 

Wikipedia article on it here: 

http://www.en.wikipedia.org/wiki/White_Juan

 

[EastonSN+]

27 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Put me down for an order of this. It's just nice to look at. 

I am pretty confident of a 6 to 12 storm before we go all RNA. I think the wave that is showing up sooner, currently modeled as rain, will end up being more south and a potential hit. 

[EasternLI]

The west pacific TC has been trending to recurving like the gfs had on that previous run. Euro losing on that. There is actually a real feature there now, 92W. It's being picked up by ensembles more and more as well. I think this is giving the boost to the EPO we've been seeing recently. Could help explain why the EPO ridge started trending, and perhaps lend some merit to that. 

[EasternLI]

5 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am pretty confident of a 6 to 12 storm before we go all RNA. I think the wave that is showing up sooner, currently modeled as rain, will end up being more south and a potential hit. 

I'm not overly sure about the period beyond about 5 days right now. I'm just not thinking much about the extended range. There's just a lot going on. In all aspects of everything lol. I like the chances, just enjoying the show for now. I'm not so confident tropical layouts will be terribly unfavorable later on either TBH. Lots of spread there, many options. Entertaining times for model watching. No time for shutting the blinds 

[Volcanic Winter]

GFS with the Dec 23rd gigastorm . At least it's better than showing a torch lol.

[Volcanic Winter]

[donsutherland1]

Cooler air will move into the region during the day tomorrow. However, temperatures will again reach the balmy 50s ahead of the arrival of the cooler air.

Afterward, the remainder of the week will see highs in the lower and middle 40s. A system could bring some rain or perhaps wet snow to parts of the region Sunday night into Monday. Some areas could see a light accumulation of snow.

With the development of an EPO-/AO-/PNA- pattern following a short-lived rebound in the EPO to positive levels, colder air intrusions could again become more frequent toward mid-December. The potential for snowfall could also begin to increase, as well, as a sustained colder pattern begins to develop, but significant snowfall is not likely during the transition to that colder pattern. No severe cold is likely through at least the first three weeks of December. The latest EPS weeklies suggest that near normal to below normal temperatures could prevail during the December 19-26 period.

The latest guidance suggests that the AO could fall to -3.000 or below during the second week of December. Since 1950, there were 24 cases that saw the AO reach -3.000 or below during December. Mean snowfall for those cases was 6.2" (Median: 6.0"). 50% of such cases saw December wind up with 6.0" or more snow (25% saw 10.0" or more). In contrast, during all other December cases, mean December snowfall was 3.5" (Median: 2.5"). In those cases, 21% of years saw December snowfall of 6.0" or more while 8% saw 10.0" or more snowfall.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.5°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 30. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -1.42°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.95°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through mid-winter.

The SOI was +0.21 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) was -2.648 today.

On December 5 the MJO was in Phase 3 at an amplitude of 0.867 (RMM). The December 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.887 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal December (1991-2020 normal). December will likely finish with a mean temperature near 39.3° (0.2° above normal).

 

[wilsonvoid1]

my thinking right now i'm very optimistic and hopefully we score it's the in me




.

[mannynyc]

24 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

my thinking right now i'm very optimistic and hopefully we score it's the in me




.

Little early for this

[Franklin0529]

43 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

my thinking right now i'm very optimistic and hopefully we score it's the in me




.

A snow map?? Lol

[Nibor]

45 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

my thinking right now i'm very optimistic and hopefully we score it's the in me




.

[eduggs]

The 0z ICON looked pretty good for snow on Sun-Mon. Ended up roughly similar to the 18z GFS, but with slightly delayed timing. Say what you want about the ICON, if nothing else it's useful for confirming the other models and identifying trends.

[wilsonvoid1]

The 0z ICON looked pretty good for snow on Sun-Mon. Ended up roughly similar to the 18z GFS, but with slightly delayed timing. Say what you want about the ICON, if nothing else it's useful for confirming the other models and identifying trends.

icon is a garbage model


.

[eduggs]

The CMC looks impressive at 84hrs. H5 looking more potent than other models and previous runs.

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, wilsonvoid1 said:

icon is a garbage model


.

Dozens of national meteorological organizations around the world as well as a few collaborations (e.g., ECMWF) have created weather forecast models. Germany's ICON is probably the 4th or 5th best mid-range model in the world. Hardly garbage. It's sister model, a hi-res version of ICON is the best short range model across much of Europe, particularly the Alps. It is a rapidly improving model suite.

[snywx]

The 0z ICON looked pretty good for snow on Sun-Mon. Ended up roughly similar to the 18z GFS, but with slightly delayed timing. Say what you want about the ICON, if nothing else it's useful for confirming the other models and identifying trends.

0z GFS continues to look good for northern areas


.

[eduggs]

All mid-range models are showing snow now for the N&W suburbs, and probably at least a little into the City. Boundary layer temps look warm, and you probably have to hedge warm when there's a surface low near the Lakes. So this favors elevated areas, but it could also favor areas where banding sets up. There's a mesoscale inverted trof type featured hinted at the tail end. This event has an unusual upper level progression - really kind of like a redeveloping clipper low.