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December 2022


dmillz25
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1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Ugly run of the GFS warm and rainy through mid month-no cold air supply with the lousy pac.

Edit-CMC is better but it's the CMC-need to see if the Euro agrees with it.

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gfs_T2m_us_39.png

Too bad we don't have access to the old GFS. Like rolling back the OS on your computer or firmware to the earlier version that actually works. 

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1 minute ago, wishcast_hater said:

Too bad we don't have access to the old GFS. Like rolling back the OS on your computer or firmware to the earlier version that actually works. 

Every time the models get improved they get worse...I'm with you it's time for a "palace coup" to return the old GFS..

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54 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

If the euro agrees again than the gfs should be thrown int he shredder. I can't even think how many times there have been different solutions. 

The GFS is trash in mid term time frame and an absolute dumpster fire beyond that. It had rain up to Canada with next weekend system as late as 00z run last night and that was obviously not going to happen. I would take both the CMC and Euro over that crap model any day of the week in nearly any scenario. 

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42 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1670241600-1670932800-1671537600-20-1.thumb.gif.ca3ac61b5b62cf11e626d50f5ceaf49d.gif

I do think something will come out of this but it's a long waiting game. 

After mid month most likely. Climo gets a lot better too by then. 

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33 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1670241600-1670932800-1671537600-20-1.thumb.gif.ca3ac61b5b62cf11e626d50f5ceaf49d.gif

When I see this loop. I see a PV in severe distress. The absolute last thing that it ever wants to do is have itself shoved out to the Aleutians like that. If we want that thing to come unraveled. That would help the cause. A lot. Just look at that poor thing, that's a miserable life for the vortex.

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1 minute ago, EasternLI said:

When I see this loop. I see a PV in severe distress. The absolute last thing that it ever wants to do is have itself shoved out to the Aleutians like that. If we want that thing to come unraveled. That would help the cause. A lot. Just look at that poor thing, that's a miserable life for the vortex.

Not shocking since the block is enormous .

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54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

EPS is absolutely drool-worthy. again, it looks like the date is the 15th with a chance for wintry precip with the 12-14th system

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1670241600-1670932800-1671537600-20-1.thumb.gif.ca3ac61b5b62cf11e626d50f5ceaf49d.gif

The PAC improvement is what I like most here.  But I f that ends up being a phantom depiction, then it’s gonna be a struggle to get any fun winter wx down to the coast. Except for a few diamonds in the rough (in my lifetime, 95–96 and 10–11), these Niña winters tend to be mostly suckage (and IIRC, the good ones had decent cold in late Nov/early Dec).

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3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Not shocking since the block is enormous .

Yes. And I'm rooting for the SSW hard this year. Well, we've had some precursors too actually so it is very interesting. 

But why? Because it would be accompanied by blocking, already set up at 500mb. Whenever you get to do that, you don't need to wait for effects. Like we're used to seeing. The effect from this would be immediate. It's a very rare opportunity, and we're still very much in the hunt.

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Just now, EasternLI said:

Yes. And I'm rooting for the SSW hard this year. Well, we've had some precursors too actually so it is very interesting. 

But why? Because it would be accompanied by blocking, already set up at 500mb. Whenever you get to do that, you don't need to wait for effects. Like we're used to seeing. The effect from this would be immediate. It's a very rare opportunity, and we're still very much in the hunt.

I think people are getting impatient because they want quick results of the blocking but most of the time it takes time.  

Hey who doesn't want snow near the holidays :)

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