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December 2022


dmillz25
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13 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I personally would like to see more Alaskan ridging instead of Aleutian ridging, which the EPS is trying to do out towards day 14-15. 

I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption. 

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18 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

boxing day happened when the west coast trough sharpened and retrograded. it spiked a rockies ridge which sent a shortwave down the midwest

It took close to 10 days for the retrogression to complete following the strongest global 500 mb block since 1950.

https://blogs.agu.org/wildwildscience/2011/01/26/while-the-u-s-shivered-amazing-arctic-warmth/

stu500.jpg


 

6780EAC4-F0F4-4523-B1F3-B0A5592A3455.gif.dcd73c1ac04e2800b980030d81bfd98e.gif

49DF0B11-57CB-4B2E-992E-00CDD676E72D.gif.2cedfc638ebfe1f2b8b98ebfa39272b1.gif

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19 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

I think we do see some of that later on, eventually. But I'm referring to the stratosphere. The Urals ridging is a very good sign for vortex disruption. 

Is this similar to what happened in 12/13? We had the block in December then the snowstorms of Feb and March that year.

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5 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

HM felt like we could get a SSW toward end of this month/early January so we shall see if he is correct.

Yeah, it'll be interesting too because it's been beat up all November. It's getting beat up by this block. From below, which is unusual. I think it's worth the occasional glance. 

803049414_index(93).thumb.png.b7cb430ecd6b923bc7d731deaea3ccac.png

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2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Odds are things trend better than worse given teleconnections. Even the MJO is moving in a better direction although its impacts are pretty nil right now. 

I would keep an eye out for the 9th. Watch to see if the high to the north trends stronger and pushes more cold air south 

Check the changes from 6z and 12z gfs run.

 

Comical

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A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough  kept the heaviest snows east of NYC.

2D24EB81-550C-4A78-A954-13CB2168CA8F.gif

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23 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough  kept the heaviest snows east of NYC.

2D24EB81-550C-4A78-A954-13CB2168CA8F.gif

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. 

I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. 

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59 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

Yeah, it'll be interesting too because it's been beat up all November. It's getting beat up by this block. From below, which is unusual. I think it's worth the occasional glance. 

803049414_index(93).thumb.png.b7cb430ecd6b923bc7d731deaea3ccac.png

Oh wow thats a major signal for disruption to the SPV. Dont normally see a complete split like that depiction.

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46 minutes ago, bluewave said:

A deep trough in the West can work for us later in the season. Nemo in February 2013 probably had the most unusual teleconnection set up for a 30”+ event in our area. But that involved a phase. So the trough  kept the heaviest snows east of NYC.

2D24EB81-550C-4A78-A954-13CB2168CA8F.gif

I had 22 when I was in Norwalk. Would have been 35 where I am now.

One thing about central park in that storm is a portion was rain. How much would have accumulated if it was all snow? I am thinking what NE NJ got about 16 inches.

 

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. 

I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. 

Nemo was the only snowstorm since the Doppler radars came out to have a 50 dbz snow band near our area.
 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/incredible-imagery-from-the-february-8-9-2013-new-england-blizzard/2013/02/11/b51df444-73f1-11e2-aa12-e6cf1d31106b_blog.html


8A46B8A3-2740-40D8-96BD-E9E808C34306.jpeg.eb1e63632205c74a1ad64f249749846c.jpeg

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18 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Initial rain/sleet ruined Nemo for immediate NYC. In Westchester where it was colder, there were many amounts over 20". I remember fuming at waiting for the snow to finally take over in Long Beach, there had to be at least 6-8" wasted. If only that storm could've been 2-3 degrees colder lol. Where I live now got absolutely hammered so I'd be perfectly fine with it here. But the setup wasn't that cold for us leading up to the storm so Central Park ended with 11" instead of the 20+ just 15 miles north. 

I'm not debbie-downing the pattern that's coming up, but it'll require patience as others said until the block can relax a bit and/or we get some help from the Pacific. 

Was amazingly consistent snowfall totals wise. From Norwalk CT to New Rochelle ALL reported 22 inches. Never saw consistency like that before.

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This is consistency

I MISSED the mega band and still got 22 in Norwalk CT. Crazy.

835 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER

...WESTCHESTER COUNTY...
   PORT CHESTER          23.3   745 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   YONKERS               23.0   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   ARDSLEY               23.0   740 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   SCARSDALE             22.5   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   EASTCHESTER           22.5   700 AM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA
   MAMARONECK            22.0   530 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   LARCHMONT             22.0   705 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   HARTSDALE             21.5   820 AM  2/09  VILLAGE EMPLOYEE
   DOBBS FERRY           21.5   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   BRONXVILLE            21.3   630 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   HASTINGS-ON-HUDSON    21.0   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   WHITE PLAINS          21.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   RYE                   20.0   630 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   ARMONK                20.0   816 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MOUNT VERNON          17.2   300 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   SOMERS                16.0   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MOUNT KISCO           14.0   710 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   SLEEPY HOLLOW         12.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   HARRISON              12.0   745 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MILLWOOD              11.6   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   OSSINING              11.5   405 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
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Here is SW CT 

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             35.0  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   STRATFORD             33.0  1030 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MONROE                30.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BRIDGEPORT            30.0   658 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER
   SHELTON               26.5   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   WESTON                26.5   800 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WESTPORT              24.5   645 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   GREENWICH             22.5   900 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   DARIEN                22.1   500 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORWALK               22.0   730 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   ROXBURY               22.0   800 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NEW CANAAN            22.0   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   DANBURY               21.5  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT
   STAMFORD              19.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NEWTOWN               17.1  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   BETHEL                16.0   800 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   RIDGEFIELD            12.0   800 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I had 22 when I was in Norwalk. Would have been 35 where I am now.

One thing about central park in that storm is a portion was rain. How much would have accumulated if it was all snow? I am thinking what NE NJ got about 16 inches.

 

Nemo had an amazing coverage of 30”+ amounts around the region. But those amounts were restricted to east of NYC. It was one of the few times just getting 10”-20” was a disappointment.


 

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             35.0  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   STRATFORD             33.0  1030 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MONROE                30.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BRIDGEPORT            30.0   658 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   EAST HADDAM           35.5   845 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   OLD SAYBROOK          30.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

 

NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   HAMDEN                40.0   100 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MILFORD               38.0   615 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   CLINTONVILLE          37.0  1040 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   OXFORD                36.2   600 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BRANFORD        36.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MERIDEN               36.0   200 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   YALESVILLE            35.0   909 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WALLINGFORD           35.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NEW HAVEN             34.3   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   WEST HAVEN            34.0  1040 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORTHFORD             33.5   950 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WOLCOTT               33.0   457 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   EAST HAVEN            33.0  1005 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GUILFORD              33.0  1113 AM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA
   NORTH GUILFORD        32.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WATERBURY             32.0   900 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MADISON               32.0   321 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NAUGATUCK             30.0   600 AM  2/09  PUBLIC

 

NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   COLCHESTER            31.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT
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4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Nemo had an amazing coverage of 30”+ amounts around the region. But those amounts were restricted to east of NYC. It was one of the few times just getting 10”-20” was a disappointment.


 

CONNECTICUT

...FAIRFIELD COUNTY...
   FAIRFIELD             35.0  1000 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   STRATFORD             33.0  1030 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MONROE                30.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   BRIDGEPORT            30.0   658 AM  2/09  COOP OBSERVER
MIDDLESEX COUNTY...
   EAST HADDAM           35.5   845 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   OLD SAYBROOK          30.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

 

NEW HAVEN COUNTY...
   HAMDEN                40.0   100 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MILFORD               38.0   615 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   CLINTONVILLE          37.0  1040 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   OXFORD                36.2   600 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   NORTH BRANFORD        36.0  1100 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MERIDEN               36.0   200 PM  2/09  PUBLIC
   YALESVILLE            35.0   909 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WALLINGFORD           35.0   700 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NEW HAVEN             34.3   600 AM  2/09  CT DOT
   WEST HAVEN            34.0  1040 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NORTHFORD             33.5   950 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WOLCOTT               33.0   457 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   EAST HAVEN            33.0  1005 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   GUILFORD              33.0  1113 AM  2/09  BROADCAST MEDIA
   NORTH GUILFORD        32.0   900 AM  2/09  SKYWARN SPOTTER
   WATERBURY             32.0   900 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   MADISON               32.0   321 AM  2/09  PUBLIC
   NAUGATUCK             30.0   600 AM  2/09  PUBLIC

 

NEW LONDON COUNTY...
   COLCHESTER            31.0  1200 PM  2/09  CT DOT

Completely agree. It's funny that we could look back and say "the storm missed my area and I got a measly 22". Although if someone said I could have the same storm and miss now I would sign up in a heartbeat.

 

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8 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Oh wow thats a major signal for disruption to the SPV. Dont normally see a complete split like that depiction.

It's been getting hammered. But still not enough. The end of the month though has potential for a show. The precursor look is there on all guidance. And with an evolving favorable tropical signal. Which is looking good at this time as well btw. It's not the standard situation for sure. Real signs pointing to watch this. 

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6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Completely agree. It's funny that we could look back and say "the storm missed my area and I got a measly 22". Although if someone said I could have the same storm and miss now I would sign up in a heartbeat.

 

29" in Huntington where I live now and the death band was 30 miles east. 

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12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter.

As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event. 

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5 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter.

As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event. 

Yep for now it's a cutter but with the NAO getting established , I wouldn't be shocked to see that storm trend south.

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4 minutes ago, winterwx21 said:

12z Euro a big warm cutter for next sunday into monday. No surprise as most of the evidence is pointing to that being a cutter.

As others have said, we do need to keep an eye on the smaller system before that for friday into saturday. Temps look borderline, and this 12z Euro run has us near the rain/snow line. Hopefully we can get a little more cold air to press down, but I wouldn't be too optimistic right now considering we have warm temps leading into that potential event. 

As long as it’s showing an event, it’s good. Where it tracks is anyones guess this far out.  

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Statistically, insight regarding strong AO+ values proved useful in heralding the arrival of AO blocking in late November. A sustained AO- regime commenced on November 23.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/58336-november-2022/?do=findComment&comment=6681570

Statistical trends in the PNA following the most similar December 3 cases suggest that, just as is shown on the dynamical guidance, the ongoing PNA- regime will be slow to breakdown. By the end of the third week in December, values should be less negative than they currently are. However, the development of sustained positive values by that time seems unlikely (not zero, but still a less than one-in-three probability).

image.jpeg.4d059ef1ba45c6e7e381a5700398f5da.jpeg

 

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