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December 2022 temperature forecast contest and winter snowfall contest


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Well the contest is not quite settled despite the latest provisionals adding a bit to the lead of RodneyS, and it looks like at least a three-person race with perhaps the chase pack with an outside chance, it would take a forecast well separated from those of the leaders to get much of a jump on them. You can easily figure this out, I suppose, but if you go consistently 1 F deg warmer or colder at various stations and you're correct in your trend, you can pick up 180 points in total, so if you were let's say 540 behind you would need to be correct about a 3 F differential (and hope all three leaders had similar forecasts to pass them all). I am a bit more than 900 behind so it doesn't matter what I do this month. 

I have posted provisional scoring for November and annual contests, and will try to update those to more accurate estimates on the 29th so if you want to know where you stand, have a look on the 30th and see if that changed from the estimates that are posted now.

So as always, predict the temperature anomalies in F deg for nine locations (relative to 1991-2020 averages) ...

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

(deadline Thursday Dec 1st, 06z) _ late penalties apply after that.

Also we'll see if there's interest in predicting winter snowfall for these nine locations (three replace warm weather locations above)

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 _____ 1.1 ___ 2.5 ___ 36.9 ____10.9 __ 0.9 __ 3.0

(amounts so far to Nov 30) ...

The above amounts should be included in your forecasts, plus what you foresee after you post to end of the winter snowfall season. I realize BUF has had a lot already but that really doesn't change the challenge of predicting the rest of the winter there. Last time I looked DEN had seen about 10 inches in November and the other locations are either at smaller amounts or yet to start their seasons. There won't be much of a deadline on this snowfall contest but try to get your entry in by 5th of December at latest so I can make up the table. 

Also a belated happy Thanksgiving. We do that in early October up here so it's just Black Friday for us (and that's new around here too). And Advent. Happy holidays in general. 

(Note, anyone is welcome to enter either of these, and you don't have to submit a temperature forecast entry to enter the snowfall contest)

(I will be asking you who are regular participants how you feel about continuing on with the contest in 2023 -- I am willing to keep doing what I do now for at least one more year, eventually I will age out of this weather forum entirely though, if the powers that be tolerate my presence that much longer)

 

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

1.0      1.0        1.0          1.0     2.0     2.0          1.0       1.5    1.0 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

16"      23"        33"          43"      35"      45"         55"        5"       81"

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.8     -1.0    -0.8       -4.3     0.8     1.0          0.5      0.8     -4.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

10.0     36.0   55.0       45.8    52.5    95.0       44.0   7.0      100.0

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-0.4    -1.3     -1.2        -2.1      1.1       1.7         0.3      0.5     -2.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

13.2    29.3    46.2       42.8    44.0    90.0      48.7.    8.2    96.3

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.1     -0.2     0.2       -1.3     -0.3     2.4         1.4      0.4     -2.8

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

7.4      33.0   50.0       44.0    48.0    93.0      46.0    7.0      98.0

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9     -1.6    -1.1        -3.6      1.1     1.7            1.1      1.1     -4.2

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

19.5     40.0   58.5       42.8    50.5    101.0      41.6   8.7      104.0

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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1.9     -2.3   -2.5       -3.1     +.8    +1.3    -5     -3.8 -4.6

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

12.0    62.0    105.0    65.0    70.0    140.0     60.0  8.0    130.0

 
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DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA

-1        -1.2     -1.5        -1.4    +1      +1.8        -1.4    +1.2    0   

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

18        38       64         45       38       110        42       11       84

 

Little late but wanted to do more of the snowfall contest than anything

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DCA:  -1.8

NYC:  -1.9

BOS:  -1.5

ORD:  -2.1

ATL:  -0.5

IAH:  +0.2

DEN:  -1.1

PHX:  +0.6

SEA:  +0.1

 

DCA _ NYC _ BOS ___ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

14.2 __ 41.1 __ 49.6 _____ 53.9 ___ 49.9 ___ 93.7 ____79.2 __ 6.7 __ 81.2

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Table of forecasts for December 2022

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0

Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 ________ -0.4 __-1.3 __-1.2 __ -2.1 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___+0.3 _+0.5 _-2.2

DonSutherland1 _______ -0.8 __-1.0 __-0.8 __ -4.3 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.8 _-4.2

wxallannj ______________ -0.8 __-1.0 __-1.2 ___-0.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.5

Roger Smith ___________ -0.9 __-0.6 __-0.1 __-3.2 __-0.4 _+1.0 ___-4.5 _-3.3 _-4.8

so_whats_happening __ -1.0 __-1.2 __-1.5 ___-1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ -1.4 _+1.2 __ 0.0

Consensus _____________-1.0 _ -1.2 __ -1.1 ___ -2.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _-2.1

RodneyS _______________ -1.1 __-0.2 __+0.2 __-1.3 __-0.3 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+0.4 _-2.8

RJay ___________________ -1.5 __-1.5 __-1.5 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _-2.0

BKViking _______________-1.6 __-1.5 __-1.3 ___-1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ -0.8 _+1.0 _-0.3

Tom ____ (-1%) _________-1.8 __-1.9 __-1.5 __ -2.1 __ -0.5 _ +0.2 ___ -1.1 _+0.6 _+0.1

wxdude64 _____________-1.9 __-1.6 __-1.1 ___-3.6 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -4.2

George001  ____________-1.9 _ -2.3 __-2.5 __ -3.1 __+0.8 _+1.3 ___ -5.0 _-3.8 _-4.6

__________________________________________

Forecasts are color coded for warmest and coldest. Normal is colder than all forecasters for IAH. 

Extreme forecasts and best forecasts will be determined and awarded both "all in" and among annual forecasters as is the usual practice late in the year. 

Welcome to George001, and good luck everybody. 

 

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Last call for edits or new posts on the snowfall contest. Table to be prepared Wed 7th, let's say 12z 7th deadline. Scotty Lightning if you look in, clarify BUF (and other forecasts) as the already-fallen amounts are to be counted in the forecasts so you're basically looking at a zero snowfall winter for BUF now to end. I will try a PM but I think last time I wanted to contact you, your box wasn't taking messages. (later edit _ SL confirmed by p.m. that he would accept the adjustments).

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  • Rjay pinned this topic

Table of forecasts for 2022-23 winter snowfall contest

* (in table)

I made an executive decision for Scotty Lightning who only checks in occasionally and may not have seen my p.m., have added his forecasts to values in the Nov 30th post as his BUF prediction (45") was almost the same as what had already fallen (37") (a lot of snowfall contests run Dec 1 to Mar 31 so that might be what he was thinking -- it would be extraordinary if BUF had only 8" of snow in meteorological winter). I also added the rather small values that had already fallen at some other locations. Also wxallannj you're welcome to post a forecast, if it arrives soon I will include it, there isn't that much happening yet. Let's say deadline is whenever snow starts falling in any significant quantity. Forecasts are listed in descending order of DCA predictions. Consensus is median value. (later) Scotty eventually confirmed that he wanted to add the amounts already measured before contest deadline.

Highest station forecasts are in bold type and lowest are underlined. 

 

FORECASTER ___________________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF __ DEN _ SEA _ BTV

BKViking ________________________ 25.0 _52.0 _ 60.0 __ 38.0 _50.0 _90.0 __ 60.0 _18.0_ 90.0

Roger Smith _____________________22.2 _44.4 _ 55.5 __ 55.5 _66.6_133.0 __ 52.0 _15.9 _ 88.8

RJay _____________________________20.0 _50.0 _ 65.0 __ 31.0 _27.0 _ 86.0 __ 50.0 _15.0 _ 80.0

wxdude64 _______________________19.5 _40.0 _ 58.5 __ 42.8 _50.5 _101.0 __ 41.6 _ 8.7 _ 104.0

so_whats_happening ____________ 18.0 _38.0 _ 64.0 __ 45.0 _380_ 110.0 __ 42.0 _11.0 _ 84.0

Scotty Lightning*_________________16.0 _23.0 _ 33.0 __ 44.1 _37.5 _ 81.9 __ 65.9 _ 5.9 _ 84.0

___ Consensus ___________________16.0 _40.0 _ 55.5 __ 44.1 _49.9 _ 93.7 __ 50.0 _ 8.2 _ 90.0

Tom _____________________________ 14.2 _ 41.1 _ 49.6 __ 53.9 _49.9 _ 93.7 __79.2 _ 6.7 _ 81.2

hudsonvalley21 __________________13.2 _ 29.3 _ 46.2 __ 42.8 _44.0 _90.0 __ 48.7 _ 8.2 _ 96.3

George001 _______________________12.0 _62.0_105.0__ 65.0 _70.0_140.0__60.0 _ 8.0_ 130.0

DonSutherland1 __________________10.0 _36.0 _ 55.0 __ 45.8 _52.5 _ 95.0 __ 44.0 _ 7.0_ 100.0

RodneyS _________________________ 7.4 _ 33.0 _ 50.0 __ 44.0 _48.0 _ 93.0 __ 46.0 _ 7.0 _ 98.0

 

actual snowfall to Dec 26, 2022 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 1.0 ___4.3 __ 7.5 __100.0 ___16.8 _ 5.8 _ 17.4

(DCA and NYC have both had traces)

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First look at anomalies and projections ...

____________________________DCA _NYC _BOS __ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

(11th) ____ (anom 10d) ____+0.8 _+2.5 _+4.0 __+3.0 _+6.7_+12.2___+4.2 _+1.3 _-4.7

(21st) ____ (anom 20d) ____-0.5 _-0.2 _+1.7 __ +1.3 _+2.9 _+6.4 ___+0.1 _ -1.6 _-4.9

(11th) ____ (p anom 20d) __ 0.0 _+0.5 _+1.0 __+0.5 _+3.0_ +7.0 ___ +1.5 _ 0.0 _ -2.5

(11th) ____ (p anom 27d)__+0.5 _+0.5 _+0.5 __+0.5 _+2.0 _+5.0 ___+1.5 _ 0.0 _ -1.0

(21st) ____ (p anom 31d) __ -1.0 _-0.8 __0.0 ___-1.0 _+1.5 _ +4.0 ___ -1.0 _-1.5 _-3.0

(28th) ___ (p anom 31d) __ -1.5 _-1.0 __+1.0___-2.0 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ___-1.5 _-0.5 _-3.5

( 1st Jan) _ anomalies ____ -1.6 _-0.6 _ +1.6 ___-1.4 _ +0.2 _+1.7 ___-1.9 _-0.3 _-3.2 

_______

(11th) _ After a rather mild start in the east, central regions, colder at times to 20th, bringing anomalies closer to normal. The deep cold in the Pac NW region may gradually flip to a somewhat milder pattern. The projections 21st to 27th are mainly based on persistence of trends 11th-20th.

(21st) _ Much colder for several days in central and eastern locations, but a milder trend after 26th may partially offset the changes. Turning milder in the Pac NW so the current anomalies will be shaved down a bit. 

(28th) _ Tweaked the projections based on latest actual anomalies and guidance. 

( 1st Jan _ all scoring updated )

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  • 2 weeks later...

I won't calculate any preliminary scores, will leave the outcome hanging in suspense until we get to the actual end of the month numbers, partly because I think the outcome lies perhaps within the margin of error. RodneyS had a bit of a lead on DonS and wxdude64 going in, but their forecasts are different enough that either Don or wxdude64 could in theory edge past RodneyS at the final showdown. Then I looked further down the annual scoring table, Tom has an outside chance of catching some of the three leaders but would need to max out on all differentials he's holding (a colder ATL, IAH and a milder SEA for example). 

My plan is to go ahead with a contest for 2023 and see how it goes. Any ideas about expanding our field welcome up to and including a change in management. It might just be that more Am Wx forum members would participate even if nothing else changes but the brand name, but if anyone thinks they would like to give that a go, I would be quite glad to co-operate in that venture. And certainly any new contest manager should feel free to change anything about the format. It is what it is, and I am also happy enough to continue on, it's a small but enthusiastic and contest-loyal group we have so it's also fine to keep going as is. Whatever, have a great holiday and check in around January 1-2 to see what happened. There will be the usual January relaxed late penalty call for forecasts around 27th of December. 

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11 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

Thanks, I suppose when we went from the three eastern locations to the larger grid, it was a larger commitment of time and perhaps that's the main or even only reason why we've seen the numbers decline. Anyway, it's all good if the current participants wish to continue. 

Thanks Rodger for your time and efforts.  I’d love to continue. :thumbsup:

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On 12/24/2022 at 3:35 AM, Roger Smith said:

I won't calculate any preliminary scores, will leave the outcome hanging in suspense until we get to the actual end of the month numbers, partly because I think the outcome lies perhaps within the margin of error. RodneyS had a bit of a lead on DonS and wxdude64 going in, but their forecasts are different enough that either Don or wxdude64 could in theory edge past RodneyS at the final showdown. Then I looked further down the annual scoring table, Tom has an outside chance of catching some of the three leaders but would need to max out on all differentials he's holding (a colder ATL, IAH and a milder SEA for example). 

My plan is to go ahead with a contest for 2023 and see how it goes. Any ideas about expanding our field welcome up to and including a change in management. It might just be that more Am Wx forum members would participate even if nothing else changes but the brand name, but if anyone thinks they would like to give that a go, I would be quite glad to co-operate in that venture. And certainly any new contest manager should feel free to change anything about the format. It is what it is, and I am also happy enough to continue on, it's a small but enthusiastic and contest-loyal group we have so it's also fine to keep going as is. Whatever, have a great holiday and check in around January 1-2 to see what happened. There will be the usual January relaxed late penalty call for forecasts around 27th of December. 

I and am sure many others on here appreciate the commitment you have to doing this every month and even messaging us personally for monthly temp submissions (this is appreciated as I at least get an email that reminds me). I enjoy this as a test of skills and just some fun. I will respect whatever decision you make for the upcoming year but would love to see this contest continue. If you need help from time to time don't be afraid to ask. I and am sure many others would happily step in from time to time if need be to give you a break if that would be much easier on you. I can ask in another forum I am in if they would like to join, many of which are just enthusiasts but like to dabble in long range discussion so maybe a little friendly competition?

I can see how the commitment to keeping a regular time schedule with forecasts can be very difficult have had some issues myself. This is what I think discourages people from joining more often. I hate to give up the idea of this being a contest though but that probably discourages those who loosely would play.

 

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Thanks, any help in publicizing the contest is welcome but we certainly tried that on a large scale a few years ago with the format of an inter-forum challenge but I think most of the sub-forums only managed to produce one or two entrants and eventually they were blown away by both the skill and numbers of the NYC and MA forums. I was basically it west of the Mississippi. New England and Great Lakes forums would probably be more interested in just local forecast challenges (from what I've seen). If it were not for the NYC turnout this contest likely would have gone extinct a while ago. ... as to help with the actual work involved, I am fine with that, you would be amazed and perhaps depressed if you saw how fast I can type this line DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA (under ten seconds). Also the word FORECASTER I can do without looking down. 

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Scoring for December 2022

 

* scores for Tom include 1 pt late penalty

 

FORECASTER __________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east__ORD_ATL_IAH__cent _ c/e ___DEN_PHX_SEA__west ____ TOTAL

__ anomalies __________  -1.5 _-0.6 __+1.6 __ __ __-1.4 __+0.2 _+1.7 ____ ___ ____ -1.9  _-0.3 _-3.2 ____ 

RodneyS _______________ 90 __ 92 __ 72 __ 254 __ 98 __ 90 __ 86 __ 274 _ 528 __ 34 __ 86 __ 92 __212 ____ 740

___ Consensus __________88 __ 88 __ 46 __ 222 __ 86 __ 84 __ 96 __ 266 _ 488 __ 58 __ 76 __ 78 __ 212 ____ 700

hudsonvalley21 ________ 76 __ 86 __ 44 __ 206 __ 86 __ 82 __100__ 268_ 474 __ 56 __ 84 __ 80 __ 220 ____ 694

so_whats_happening __ 88 __ 88 __ 38 __ 214 __100__ 84 __ 98 __ 282496 __90 __ 70 __ 36 __ 196 ____ 692

RJay ___________________ 98 __ 82 __ 38 __ 218 __ 78 __ 96 __ 86 __ 260 _ 478 __ 62 __ 74 __ 76 __ 212 ____ 690

BKViking _______________100__ 82 __ 42 __ 224 __ 98 __ 88 __ 82 __ 268 _ 492 __ 78 __ 74 __ 42 __ 194 ____ 686

wxallannj ______________ 84 __ 92 __ 44 __ 220 __ 82 __ 84 __ 94 __ 260 _ 480 __ 52 __ 74 __ 66 __ 192 ____ 672

DonSutherland1 ________84 __ 92 __ 52 __ 228 __ 42 __ 88 __ 86 __ 216 _ 444 __ 52 __ 78 __ 80 __ 210 ____ 654

___ Normal _____________ 68 __ 88 __ 68 __ 224 __ 72 __ 96 __ 66 __ 234_ 458 __ 62 __ 94 __ 36 __ 192 ____ 650

Roger Smith ___________ 86 __100 __66 __ 252 __ 64 __ 88 __ 86 __ 238_ 490 __ 48 __ 40 __ 68 __ 156 ____ 646 

wxdude64 _____________ 90 __ 80 __ 46 __ 216 __ 56 __ 82 __100__ 238 _ 454 __ 40 __ 72 __ 80 __ 192 ____ 646

Tom ____ (-1%) _________ 97*__ 73*__ 38 __ 208 __ 85*__85*__69*__239 _ 447 __ 83*__ 81*__ 34 __ 198 ____ 645

George001  ____________ 90 __ 66 __ 18 ___ 196 __ 66 __ 88 __ 92 __ 246 _ 442 __ 38 __ 30 __ 72 __ 142 ____ 584

Scotty Lightning _______ 48 __  68 __ 88 __ 204 __ 52 __ 64 __ 94 __ 210 _ 414 __ 42 __ 64 __ 16 __ 122 ____ 536

__________________________________________

 

EXTREME FORECAST REPORT

BOS (+1.0) is a win for Scotty Lightning (+1.0) with highest forecast. 

DEN (-1.9) is a loss for Roger Smith (-4.5) within the regular forecast group, and also a loss for George001 (-5.0), with the win going to so_whats_happening (-1.4). 

PHX (-0.3) is also a loss for Roger Smith and George001 with the win going to RodneyS (+0.4) and Normal (0.0). 

___________________________

=======================

(actual forecasts)

FORECASTER __________ DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ___ DEN _PHX _SEA

Scotty Lightning _______+1.0 _ +1.0 _ +1.0 __ +1.0 _+2.0 _ +2.0 __ +1.0 _+1.5 _+1.0

Normal _________________ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ___ 0.0 __ 0.0 __ 0.0 ____ 0.0 _ 0.0 _ 0.0

hudsonvalley21 ________ -0.4 __-1.3 __-1.2 __ -2.1 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___+0.3 _+0.5 _-2.2

DonSutherland1 _______ -0.8 __-1.0 __-0.8 __ -4.3 _ +0.8 _+1.0 __ +0.5 _+0.8 _-4.2

wxallannj ______________ -0.8 __-1.0 __-1.2 ___-0.5 _ +1.0 _+2.0 __ +0.5 _+1.0 _-1.5

Roger Smith ___________ -0.9 __-0.6 __-0.1 __-3.2 __-0.4 _+1.0 ___-4.5 _-3.3 _-4.8

so_whats_happening __ -1.0 __-1.2 __-1.5 ___-1.4 _ +1.0 _ +1.8 __ -1.4 _+1.2 __ 0.0

Consensus _____________-1.0 _ -1.2 __ -1.1 ___ -2.1 _ +1.0 _+1.5 __ +0.2 _+0.9 _-2.1

RodneyS _______________ -1.1 __-0.2 __+0.2 __-1.3 __-0.3 _+2.4 __ +1.4 _+0.4 _-2.8

RJay ___________________ -1.5 __-1.5 __-1.5 __ -2.5 __ 0.0 _ +1.0 ____ 0.0 _+1.0 _-2.0

BKViking _______________-1.6 __-1.5 __-1.3 ___-1.3 _ +0.8 _ +0.8 __ -0.8 _+1.0 _-0.3

Tom ____ (-1%) _________-1.8 __-1.9 __-1.5 __ -2.1 __ -0.5 _ +0.2 ___ -1.1 _+0.6 _+0.1

wxdude64 _____________-1.9 __-1.6 __-1.1 ___-3.6 __+1.1 _ +1.7 ___ +1.1 _ +1.1 _ -4.2

George001  ____________-1.9 _ -2.3 __-2.5 __ -3.1 __+0.8 _+1.3 ___ -5.0 _-3.8 _-4.6

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=== <<<<< _______ Annual Scoring Report ( 2022 contest final report ) __________>>>>> ===

Total scores for each location, region ... best scores for locations in red, for regions in bold type. 

RodneyS by winning December has also won the annual contest by 202 points over wxdude64 and 228 over DonSutherland1.

No changes occurred in the rankings except that Normal moved ahead of 9th place Scotty Lightning.

In terms of a pro-rated score for one missed forecast, so_whats_happening had the equivalent of 2nd place by a narrow margin. StormchaserChuck who entered eight contests was scoring at a slightly lower rate than 11th place. 

Will post some final thoughts on the contest year later on in a separate post. 

 

FORECASTER ___________ DCA_NYC_BOS__east_ ORD_ATL_IAH __ cent _ c/e __ DEN_PHX_SEA __west __ TOTAL (diff) 

 

RodneyS ________________904 _868 _734__2506__824 _982 _742__2548 _5054 __834 _974 _828__2636 ____ 7690 _ 0

wxdude64 ______________ 851 _901 _833 __2585__859 _895_734__2488 _5073 __748 _904 _763 __2415 ____ 7488 (-202)

DonSutherland1 ________ 938 _926 _822__2686__844 _844 _650__2338 _5024 __662 _922 _854 __2438 ____7462 (-228)

 

___ Consensus ___________860 _894 _796__2550__860 _856 _680__2396 _4946__802 _900 _789 __2491 ____7437 (-253)

 

Tom _____________________ 874 _900 _755 __2529__863 _854 _748__2465 _4994 __854 _804 _622 __2280____7274 (-416)

BKViking ________________ 854 _876 _750 __2480__818 _810 _ 636__2264 _4744 __874 _822 _750 __2446____7190 (-500)

wxallannj ________________768 _844 _740 __2352 __820 _732 _656__2208 _4560 __832 _852 _816 __2500____7060 (-630)

hudsonvalley21 __________770 _864 _834 __2468__794 _812 _652__2258 _4726__ 730 _902 _686__ 2318____7044 (-646)

so_whats_happening (11)_732 _790 _736__2258__793 _802 _658__2253 _4511 __ 754 _838 _780 __2372 ____6883 (-807)

_____ Normal _____________826 _806 _678 __2310 __792 _830 _716 __2338 _4648 __667 _848 _598__2113____ 6761 (-929)

Scotty Lightning _________776 _810 _788 __2374 __778 _766 _704__2248 _4622 __700 _848 _550__2098____ 6720 (-970) 

RJay _____________________756 _792 _814 __2362__729 _800 _596__2125 _ 4487 __ 802 _704 _721 __2227____6714 (-976)

Roger Smith _____________766 _750 _542 __2058 __658 _730 _644__2032 _4090 __866 _844 _835__2545____6635 (-1055)

Stormchaser Chuck (8) _ 499_527 _479 __ 1505 __462 _559 _355 _1376 _2881 __ 432 _510 _329 __ 1271____ 4152

George001 _________(1) _ _ see DEC scoring 

__ __ prorated Stormchaser Chuck would compare at 6228 total points. 

__ __ and so_whats_happening would compare at 7509 total points.

=========================================

__ Best Forecasts __ 

* tied for high score with one other forecaster __ ^ tied for high score with three others (Mar). 

 

FORECASTER ________ DCA_NYC_BOS _east_ ORD_ATL_IAH_ cent _c/e__ DEN_PHX_SEA _west _ total

RodneyS _____________ 2**__ 0 ___ 1*___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 5 ___ 2 ___3 ___ 4___ 2*___ 2 ___ 3 ___2*___3__Sep,Oct,Dec

wxdude64 ___________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 2*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___1__Jan

DonSutherland1 ______5**^__3 ___0 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 2 ____4____1 ___2__ Feb,May

___ Consensus _______ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 __ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ____0 ___ 0

Tom __________________ 1^ __ 2 ___ 1 ___ 2  ___1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 0 ___0 ___ 1 __Mar

BKViking _____________ 4*^__ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ____2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0___ 0 ___ 1 __Nov  

wxallannj _____________ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___2*___ 1 ___ 2*___2 ___0

hudsonvalley21 ______ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___1*___2*___0

so_whats_happening _1*___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1__ Jul

___ Normal ___________ 3 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 3 ___ 1 ___ 1 ____0 ___ 0 ___3 ___ 1 ____0 ___0

Scotty Lightning _____ 2**__ 1 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 0 ___ 0 ___1 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 0

RJay __________________1^___ 0 ___ 3*___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 1*___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 0 ___ 1__ Apr

Roger Smith __________1 ___ 4 ___ 1*___ 2 ___ 2*___ 0 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 1 ___ 6*___2 ___2*___ 5*___2__Jun, Aug

Stormchaser Chuck __2 ___ 1 ___ 2*___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 2 ___ 1 ___ 1 ___ 2 ___ 0 ___ 0 ___ 1*___ 1 ____ 0

=========================

EXTREME FORECAST SCORING 

(second total in brackets adjusts for tied wins which are indicated by * in monthly logs only -- so far this has occurred twelve times, once for SEA in Feb, once for IAH in Apr, once for DEN in May and again Aug, once for BOS in June, once for SEA in June, once for DCA in July and also Aug and Sep, once for BOS in July and once for ORD in July and again Aug.) Normal could also be tied for extreme forecast wins but this is not tracked.

(in March, four shared a win for DCA shown by ^ -- this counts as 0.25 in the second bracketed total).

(wins for Normal are in addition to forecaster wins and do not replace them _ Normal is not charged with a loss _ would have done so in April for DEN)

In total, 73 of 108 forecasts qualify, 29 warmest and 44 coldest; Jan 0-5, Feb 4-4, Mar 2-2, Apr 3-6, May 4-2, June 3-4, July 4-3, Aug 4-5, Sep 1-3, Oct 3-4, Nov 0-4, Dec 1-2. 

 

FORECASTER __________ Jan _Feb _Mar _Apr _May _Jun_ Jul _Aug _ Sep _Oct _Nov _Dec  __TOTAL (adj for ties)

 

Roger Smith ___________ --- _ 1- 1 _ 2-0 _5-1_ ---_ 4**0 _ 0-3 _3**0 _1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ 0-2 __ 18-7 (16-7)

RodneyS _______________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2*-0_ 1*-0 _2*-0_3-2 _1*0 _ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 14-2 (12.0-2)

____ Normal ____________ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ 2-0 _ _ 1-1 _ 1-0 _ 3-0_ 2-0 _ 1-0 _ 1-0 __ 13-1

Stormchaser Chuck ____ 2-1 _ --- _ --- _ --- _ 3-0 _2-0 _1*-0 _ --- _ --- _ 2-0 _ ---- _ ---- __ 10-1 (9.5- 1)

DonSutherland1 _______ --- _ 4*-0_ 1^-0_1-0_ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-0 _ --- _ --- __ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- _ 10-0 (8.25 - 0)

RJay ___________________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ 1*-0_--- _ ---- _ 3*-0 _ 1-1_ --- _ 1-0 _ ---- _ ---- ___7-1 (6.25 - 1)

Tom ____________________ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ 2^-0_1-0_ 1*-0_ ---- _ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___6-0 (4.75 - 0)

wxdude64 ______________1-0 _ 3*-0_ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _--- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ ---- ___5-0 (4.0 - 0)

Scotty Lightning _______ --- _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 2**0_ 3*0 _---_ ---- _ 1-0 ___ 6-0 (4.5 - 0)

so_whats_happening __ 1-0 _ --- _ --- _ 1-0 _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ 1*-0 _--- _ ---- _---- _ 1-0 __ 4-0 (3.5 - 0)

BKViking _______________ --- _ --- _ 1^-0_ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- _ --- __ --- _ 1-0 _ 1-0 _ ---- __ 3-0 (2.25 - 0)

hudsonvalley21 _________--- _ --- _ --- _ 1*-1 _ --- _ ---- _1*-0 _ 1-0 _ --- _ --- __ ---- _ ---- __ 3-1 (2.0 - 1)

wxallannj _______________--- _ --- _ 0-1 _ ---- _ --- _ 1*-0 _ 1-0 _ 1*-1 _ --- _ --- _ ---- _ ---- __ 3-2 (2.0 -1)

===============================

(Normal is not considered for ties and can score a loss when 0.0 is between a win and a loss, but not when 0.0 is lower than a winning low forecast)

 

 

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