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Winter Forecasts for 2022-2023 (Amateur and Pro welcome)


ChescoWx
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Below is my attempt at a Winter Forecast for Chester County PA. I identified 12 analog years that had similar average temperature departures for October (~2 degrees below normal) and November (~2 degrees above normal). Ten (10) of the twelve (12) featured below normal temperatures - with 8 of the 12 years having above normal snowfall. The coldest analog season was 1977-78, the snowiest was the winter of 2009-10 when we were buried under 86.7" of snow. The warmest was 1948-49, the least snowiest 1930-31.
Overall, I predict below normal temperatures for December, January and February, but above normal March temperatures. Seasonal snowfall will be above average at 47" vs our 36" of average snowfall featuring above average snowfall for all winter months with the exception of March
Below is the chart with the actual readings for the analog years. Let me know your thoughts and if any questions let me know. Wish me luck and get those snowblowers ready!!
image.png.42be15ba1290d4274e998f897f9e2197.png
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fwiw

December 1-7  no snow avg temps

December 8-17  4-6 inches of snow  below normal temps

December 8-24  3-6 inches of snow  below normal temps

December 25-31  4-6 inches of snow  avg temps

January 1-15  6-10 inches of snow below avg temps

January 15-31  4-8 inches of snow avg temps

February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps

Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps

March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps

 

at least 3 storms of 8+ inches  with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV.  Snow cover 25 + days

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We just threw down for a new Ego snow blower since my wife really likes using their lawnmower, and since my Craftsman snow blower is close to 30 years old and held together with literal zip ties and baling twine. (She wants to be able to use it in case I'm traveling, plus we already have the Ego mower and leaf blower so we're already invested in the battery ecosystem. But I digress.) Based on absolutely nothing at all, here's what I'm thinking:

So... Freak snow end of Nov, 3" that melts before we have a chance to use the new machine.

December... cold rain.

January... Freakishly cold, mere dustings of snow throughout.

February... Big 2009/2010 energy, two 12"+ storms, maybe even back to back.

March... Solid 8-incher right around the 8th.

April... A dusting at the beginning of the month, then 70's, then cold towards the end.

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On 11/23/2022 at 9:55 PM, Albedoman said:

fwiw

December 1-7  no snow avg temps

December 8-17  4-6 inches of snow  below normal temps

December 8-24  3-6 inches of snow  below normal temps

December 25-31  4-6 inches of snow  avg temps

January 1-15  6-10 inches of snow below avg temps

January 15-31  4-8 inches of snow avg temps

February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps

Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps

March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps

 

at least 3 storms of 8+ inches  with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV.  Snow cover 25 + days

We have the same total snowfall forecast....I am smelling consensus!! LOL!!

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So I went back and checked on records for 134 winter seasons here in Chester County back to the winter of 1888-89.  Only 30 times or 22.4% of seasons do we see a below normal December - January - February.

Across the last 13 decades we have been very consistent with no significant changes in number of such winters by decade.

1890's (2) / 1900's (3) / 1910's (2) / 1920's (3) / 1930's (2) / 1940's (2) / 1950's (2) / 1960's (3) / 1970's (3) / 1980's (2) / 1990's (2) / 2000's (2) / 2010's (2)

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  • 2 weeks later...
On 11/23/2022 at 9:55 PM, Albedoman said:

fwiw

December 1-7  no snow avg temps

December 8-17  4-6 inches of snow  below normal temps

December 8-24  3-6 inches of snow  below normal temps

December 25-31  4-6 inches of snow  avg temps

January 1-15  6-10 inches of snow below avg temps

January 15-31  4-8 inches of snow avg temps

February 1-15 8+ inches of snow below avg temps

Februray 15-28 6-8 in of snow avg temps

March 1-31 4-6 inches of snow avg temps

 

at least 3 storms of 8+ inches  with at least one week or more of solid single digit lows or colder in early January. Total snowfall 46 inches for the LV.  Snow cover 25 + days

I have a typo error third line should have been Dec 18-24. Regardless, I had 7-12 in before Christmas. The Euro and GEM are leaning in my direction tonight - thats good

 

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On 11/24/2022 at 9:56 AM, Voyager said:

I'm predicting no snow this winter at my current location... :P

Probably better for your health.

No staying up late for model runs. No stressing out on the rain/snow line. (33F/rain) No shoveling. (Heart/Back) No depression when the storm decides to go out to sea. No mental/hallucination issues (seeing flakes falling through the window when they're not) No wasted time tracking a storm 10 days out and end up with zilch. No high heating bills. No salt/brine to eat brake lines/undercarriage of car. No jackknifing truck. And finally you don't have to deal with relentless weenies...

All that aside, it's worth it once it starts falling.  :santa:   :snowing:   

40F/sunny

 

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Probably better for your health.

No staying up late for model runs. No stressing out on the rain/snow line. (33F/rain) No shoveling. (Heart/Back) No depression when the storm decides to go out to sea. No mental/hallucination issues (seeing flakes falling through the window when they're not) No wasted time tracking a storm 10 days out and end up with zilch. No high heating bills. No salt/brine to eat brake lines/undercarriage of car. No jackknifing truck. And finally you don't have to deal with relentless weenies...

All that aside, it's worth it once it starts falling.  :santa:   :snowing:   

40F/sunny

 

Truer words were never spoken!

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1 hour ago, Birds~69 said:

Probably better for your health.

No staying up late for model runs. No stressing out on the rain/snow line. (33F/rain) No shoveling. (Heart/Back) No depression when the storm decides to go out to sea. No mental/hallucination issues (seeing flakes falling through the window when they're not) No wasted time tracking a storm 10 days out and end up with zilch. No high heating bills. No salt/brine to eat brake lines/undercarriage of car. No jackknifing truck. And finally you don't have to deal with relentless weenies...

All that aside, it's worth it once it starts falling.  :santa:   :snowing:   

40F/sunny

 

People who live in the snow belt regions will never understand how much we mid-Atlantic weenies suffer for our snow.

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1 hour ago, JTA66 said:

People who live in the snow belt regions will never understand how much we mid-Atlantic weenies suffer for our snow.

Throughout the years decades I've put my body through stress/sleep deprived hell over white things falling from the sky...a line of midnight thunder storms as well. If I tell my doctor this is why I have trouble sleeping he'll look at me like I have 3 eyes and write me a prescription for Xanax. I don't dare mention imaginary snowflakes falling... 

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  • 2 months later...
On 11/24/2022 at 10:49 AM, Mikeymac5306 said:

Meh. I 'm still going with a repeat of last year. We'll be lucky to get one SECS storm.  

 

Apps runners will give the area a Couple of nickel and dime messes in January/February and that's about it. 

Nailed it...

 

Should've put money on the Eagles/Chiefs Superbowl too. 

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9 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

Nailed it...

 

Should've put money on the Eagles/Chiefs Superbowl too. 

Nickel and dime? Some of you guys didn't even get the .9 that the gas stations show on their signs...

When Tucson, AZ has more seasonal snow than PHL, something's wrong.

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10 minutes ago, Voyager said:

Nickel and dime? Some of you guys didn't even get the .9 that the gas stations show on their signs...

When Tucson, AZ has more seasonal snow than PHL, something's wrong.

Think Philly has .3" which is tied for 2nd or 3rd crapiest season snow total on record. Ugghh...

31F

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