brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Getting closer. tick tick tick 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 What is causing that Secondary development 12/16 system to track With such a northerly component instead of NE , the airmass would probably be just good enough if that track direction was altered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: What is causing that Secondary development 12/16 system to track With such a northerly component instead of NE , the airmass would probably be just good enough if that track direction was altered The ULL is so wrapped up to the west it’s trying to yank it NW. it’s fighting the block the whole time though. It eventually succeeds in a limited fashion. It unlikely to play out that way though. If the block is going to sit there in the Davis Strait with a 50/50 trending southwest, I think 12/15-16 will keep trending south too. We can get cutters with a big block there but you typically need a lot of nuances to line up. It’s kind of the opposite of when you have no blocking and a semi-hostile PAC…we’re trying to thread the needle for snow events…in this case, you have to thread the needle for a full cutter. It can happen, but they usually play out messier than that with secondary redevelopments, etc. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 We'll take the EPS and GEFS after the 14th. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll take the EPS and GEFS after the 14th. thats only 7 days from now....it is nice to finally hear someone say that and have it inside of 10 days, fingers crossed they are onto something 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll take the EPS and GEFS after the 14th. Finally within medium range. Things are looking up . 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Finally within medium range. Things are looking up . Kind of a SWFE look with undertones of overrunning or redevelopers with Rockies trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll take the EPS and GEFS after the 14th. All a fuckinboard 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 holy shit 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: All a fuckinboard One leg in, the other watching out to make sure this trough doesn't shift west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kind of a SWFE look with undertones of overrunning or redevelopers with Rockies trough. Yeah the big western PNA ridge isn’t happening I don’t think for now (maybe in January if Ray has the right idea?)….but I love that split flow -EPO/-PNA/weak -NAO look. The EPO ridge is pretty Far East too. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 My guess is a Rockies trough looks good in the extended and the AK ridge should hold, maybe eventually retro west a tad? But if we can get poleward ridging that will help. Forcing supports somewhat of a Nina look. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Having it a bit east of 135E is good IIRC for baked AK. Anyways that's just one piece of the puzzle. I do like the higher heights hanging around to our north like Will mentioned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Pretty good coupling too at 50mb. Always like seeing that for stability. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah the big western PNA ridge isn’t happening I don’t think for now (maybe in January if Ray has the right idea?)….but I love that split flow -EPO/-PNA/weak -NAO look. The EPO ridge is pretty Far East too. Yeah, no issues verbatim. For selfish reasons I like it because it allows for a bit more cold to work into the picture around here and that's needed in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Way out there but Dec 16-17 timeframe also trending nicely on EPS After all the din of worries, we'll hopefully see the potential of this period materialize 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 There are quite a few EPS members that give a good shot of snow for the 12/16 system. There's even a small handful that are mostly/all snow. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: There are quite a few EPS members that give a good shot of snow for the 12/16 system. There's even a small handful that are mostly/all snow. Not a bad signal at all 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 really nice to see the EPS maintain some of the WB -NAO blocking, which helps lead to the slight 50/50 signal. it also has the -EPO oriented such that there's ridging into W Canada, which will dump cold farther E and lead to less cutters 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Definitely a cold pattern on the 12z EPS 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: It happened in 1997....I think 12/11/97 (ironic its almost the same exact date is this upcoming system)....part of S CT got 5-8" while pike got skunked. South of pike into N CT got like 2-5". ORH prior to that had a 5" event in November, but hadn't gotten warning snows yet. They did get 18 inches though 12 days later on 12/23/97. I remember the 12/11 system though because it was originally forecasted to be 3-6" for ORH and then in the final day they kept cutting amounts and settled on 1-3" and we actually got zero. About 10 miles south had 2-3". I remember seeing cars driving north into the city on 290 with snow all over them and it made me furious. I remember that one, I was driving back from working in Queens that day, drive was a nightmare, if I'm thinking of the right one, was that the one that hit mid afternoon and wasn't expected to be much initially Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 Just now, Superstorm93 said: Definitely a cold pattern on the 12z EPS Parts of the west must be On track for Extremely cold December departures 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthCoastMA Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 All aboard the qg_omega / Great Snow of 1717 Express 2 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 28 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Finally within medium range. Weenies are looking up . Some of us had ours looking up the whole time fading the pope and the meme impersonator’s drunken tails of a snowless December. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said: All aboard the qg_omega / Great Snow of 1717 Express You hate to see it. I really hope Kev and a few guys further east got off in time. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 41 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kind of a SWFE look with undertones of overrunning or redevelopers with Rockies trough. Exactly as we expected mid December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 49 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We'll take the EPS and GEFS after the 14th. one thing that i noticed reading here over the past week or so is that the GEFS and EPS have been polar opposites of each other. are they now starting to be at least a little bit aligned with each other? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 7, 2022 Author Share Posted December 7, 2022 42 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: All a fuckinboard I think there should something like the old EE (EURO/ETA) rule for when you and I agree. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 7, 2022 Share Posted December 7, 2022 1 minute ago, SJonesWX said: one thing that i noticed reading here over the past week or so is that the GEFS and EPS have been polar opposites of each other. are they now starting to be at least a little bit aligned with each other? The agreement is now pretty damned good. EPS looks a little better overall because the AK ridge on the EPS is stronger....but the anomalies are mostly matching in the right spots to eachother now. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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