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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland

eps_z500a_eus_fh120_trend.thumb.gif.909e51660089aa284b6bb22cbd699ec8.gifeps_z500a_namer_fh102_trend.thumb.gif.a3289ee95d269deb4576bbc52468d479.gif

certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored

eps_mslpaNorm_namer_17.png.6a5bd41a1c8b4d98588a6b8cb5480658.thumb.png.2602f7aaf09986aae4173345f62cbab7.png

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32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Main difference I see is that the low near NF is a bit further away on the GEM, which maybe allows for faster amplification of coastal.

 

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

it'll be really interesting to see today's 12z runs given the trends that we've seen over the last model cycle wrt the possible event on the 12th. i wasn't too hot on this event yesterday given the lack of support, but there's been a pretty dramatic trend towards more amplification given a farther W Plains ridge, which we can attribute to stronger blocking towards Greenland

eps_z500a_eus_fh120_trend.thumb.gif.909e51660089aa284b6bb22cbd699ec8.gifeps_z500a_namer_fh102_trend.thumb.gif.a3289ee95d269deb4576bbc52468d479.gif

certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored

eps_mslpaNorm_namer_17.png.6a5bd41a1c8b4d98588a6b8cb5480658.thumb.png.2602f7aaf09986aae4173345f62cbab7.png

You are correct.

I missed that.

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

certainly not time to lock anything in at this point, but I think it's safe to say that modeling has made a large trend towards a more amplified solution like the CMC... obviously the CMC itself is the highest ceiling outcome, but with a 1040-50 antecedent HP in Canada, it would certainly be cold enough along with a very low sun angle. obviously, this early in the year, slightly inland is favored

eps_mslpaNorm_namer_17.png.6a5bd41a1c8b4d98588a6b8cb5480658.thumb.png.2602f7aaf09986aae4173345f62cbab7.png

One concern I have with that stout high is it's going to be supplying a quite a bit of dry air to the north. This could really be a no-win situation event for most. 

If the storm track is farther south (which obviously is good for colder air) the northern edge of the precip shield could get destroyed with dry air. 

If the storm track is farther north you get increased moisture, but now you're talking about profile concerns (especially towards the coast). 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

One concern I have with that stout high is it's going to be supplying a quite a bit of dry air to the north. This could really be a no-win situation event for most. 

If the storm track is farther south (which obviously is good for colder air) the northern edge of the precip shield could get destroyed with dry air. 

If the storm track is farther north you get increased moisture, but now you're talking about profile concerns (especially towards the coast). 

yeah this event definitely favors SNE... mainly towards CT

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2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah this event definitely favors SNE... mainly towards CT

 

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS is stronger with 12/11-12/12 shortwave but its fighting stronger confluence too. It's a good hit for CT, but eastern peeps struggle to saturate.

Just unreal.

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