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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That’s even more suppressed. South of DC. 

Cmc had a little compromise on that system or an extension of some moisture wrapping in toward interior E CT over toward Foxboro to the tune of a few inches (I realize it won’t happen like that but I was at least encouraged the model had a airmass that supported snow there )

Gfs turned what  initially look to me like a no chance (cutter) 17’th storm into a late sort of transfer / coastal hugger that buried ski resorts in la la land  

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The surface looks odd, there are 3 lows. I would think they would combine into one big low. The location of the rain snow line is very reasonable though considering the airmass and ocean temps. Interior areas have a really good shot with this threat, those of us closer to the coast I think will have some ptype issues. Maybe something like March 2017 or the Feb storm a couple years ago where my area got 8 inches, and 20 min NW got a foot and a half. 

C5F5B675-9BB1-4470-936C-E4936F743618.png

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Outside of the GFS, not much supporting precip for 12/9-10. Id expect GFS to come considerably more suppressed today with that one. Still a chance there’s a compromise on models where we thread the needle and get a bit of snow but I’m expecting a whiff at this point.

Sig for 12/13-14 is pretty solid on ensemble guidance so we’ll just have to wait and see how that one evolves. 

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Outside of the GFS, not much supporting precip for 12/9-10. Id expect GFS to come considerably more suppressed today with that one. Still a chance there’s a compromise on models where we thread the needle and get a bit of snow but I’m expecting a whiff at this point.

Sig for 12/13-14 is pretty solid on ensemble guidance so we’ll just have to wait and see how that one evolves. 

rather uninspiring op and ensemble runs overnight ..  Hopefully 12z runs enhance the look for the 13/14th period.. 

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5 hours ago, George001 said:

I’m still keeping an eye on it but I like my chances for the 13th better. The airmass is better by then and the blocking is in a better position.

I won't be surprised if we end up having to wait until past mid-month.....the return on these blocking patterns is often greater down the line when its weakening.

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26 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

rather uninspiring op and ensemble runs overnight ..  Hopefully 12z runs enhance the look for the 13/14th period.. 

How inspiring would you expect it to be for threats over 10 days out? The 10th-15th is fair game, but its more of a bonus period IMO.

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Just whipping through the EPS, it looks to me like the real higher-end potential is after about the 20th and towards Xmas, as the shift westward in forcing begins to manifest in the form of some ridging out west as the block also begins to mature.

That period into January is when all hell could break lose.

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