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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You're on point...   The MJO's behavior is (likely) because it is/has been in destructive interference against the La Nina basin footprint.   The La Nina has been remarkably well -coupled this autumn.   

Personally, ( full disclosure ) I was optimistic that would not be the case (the La Nina part of it). Ha.  It would be more loosely coupled, which is not unprecedented over the last 10 years of varying ENSO states ( much to the chagrin of those that are heavily ENSO reliant).  The recent decadal history of that was a hopeful trend that we would not have this longitudinal flow structure coming into western N/A.  

It wasn't just that ...there is a growing body of transition season behavioral evidence for seasonal lapsing.  We have observed early/late cool snaps capably of harboring actual snow events, as early as Octobers and as late as Mays, going back to 2000.  This has - more or less to be determined causally - been coinciding with the acceleration of climate changing during these last 20 years. Whether that is so or not, a statistical oddity in the least, but it also played into the idea above.  If seasonal lapse was causing W/NE N/A ridging early, while (perhaps) La Nina were vague --> ..etc.  

Neither seemed to materialize per that hope - I mean... it wasn't an 'expectation,' it really was hoping.    Ah well... 

There is a statistical bases for 'early performing' La Nina winters. It's perhaps related to the fact that ENSO signals tend to decouple more so during summers, for obvious reasons related to planetary relaxation of gradient turning off triggers/dispersion mechanics...etc.  So that does provide a narrow window for late Novie to early Jan ... but it's not dependable. It's just adding a little.  

That's not doing too well either LOL.

 

I personally hope we can get into enough of a decent pacific so we can at least have a few opportunities this winter instead of the petferbial chasing unicorns all winter. It's somewhat ok now because winter technically isn't here, but we don't want to be singing this same old song and dance a month from now wondering where winter is lol

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12 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

 

638cecfc070b8.png

Yeah...detecting a primitive coalesce attempt on the 13.14.15 period - it was one of the original assessment intervals from last week.

probably be a thread in-coming later, if anyone is interested?  I feel it's worth it for the fact that the rudimentary canvas in place as is/has been well covered, while now subtle Pacific changes showing up in the EPS/GEFs..  Almost immediately we see this illustration materialize in operational, with all three flagging moderate to major cyclogen from the Del Mar to CC region. 

Sorry, that is not a mere coincident series/converged guidance'.   

 

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7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Check this out. I went back on the EPS several days ago. These are valid for 6z Saturday coming up. LOL. The west coast could not be any different as modeled. 
 

 

617AE405-9EB5-49FC-8B14-5F8DB14475F9.png

55AE4157-D258-4029-B191-7B376D02F97B.png

 

The one thing I have noticed the last 48 hours is that while the Pac still looks meh 12/10-12/14 the SER is noticeably flatter or more of TN Valley/S Plains ridge which depending where you are in the NE/MA varies how you feel on that

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57 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...detecting a primitive coalesce attempt on the 13.14.15 period - it was one of the original assessment intervals from last week.

probably be a thread in-coming later, if anyone is interested?  I feel it's worth it for the fact that the rudimentary canvas in place as is/has been well covered, while now subtle Pacific changes showing up in the EPS/GEFs..  Almost immediately we see this illustration materialize in operational, with all three flagging moderate to major cyclogen from the Del Mar to CC region. 

Sorry, that is not a mere coincident series/converged guidance'.   

 

Fire it up.

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2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said:

Again I just started my opinion in a post that had nothing to do with him and he called me a “puke”? That’s ok? That’s why I fired back. 

Yea, of course its too much. Most of us know each other so it isn't a big deal. Nothing personal...sometimes I just sense an annoying kind of tendency to search for the easiest path to get a rise out of folks, like a few other guys on here.

Again, nothing personal...just more of a shot at your forum mojo. 

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50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Check this out. I went back on the EPS several days ago. These are valid for 6z Saturday coming up. LOL. The west coast could not be any different as modeled. 
 

 

617AE405-9EB5-49FC-8B14-5F8DB14475F9.png

55AE4157-D258-4029-B191-7B376D02F97B.png

Yea, that's what kills the first several days of the post 12/10 period for alot of folks...block is inhibited on the western limb, where it matters, and the west coast takes on a full latitude trough type of look.

That's not a deal breaker....just more of a nuisance that delays things. But these types of patterns out west were planned for in my conceptualization, which is why I explicitly stated that the mid atl likely waits until January to cash in big time, and white xmas along the SNE coast is more dubious...inland SNE and of course NNE good to go.

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