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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Few threats to watch mid month on the GFS

Regardless of what happens the rest of December, if we get 3 wound up coastals, dropping over a foot of rain. There will be melts of historical proportions, even from the most resilient posters. It seems as though the GFS has become the new Dr. No

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Oh m g ...I just saw that GFS serious....  ha HA hahhahahahaha

God, that's beautiful.   Three moderate ( if not more) nor'easters thrash the region in rain, during a -3 SD NAO.   I'm a Science Fiction author, I'm writing my first 3 chapters of that story with that occurrence, as a kind of sneaking attribution case study for CC.   

You just create the fiction of it, and let the wise reader wonder if that's where you're going.  muah hahahaha.

 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s real and it’s spectacular 

That's utterly flawless aloft, that structure.

Yeah, in more analytic terms ( I'm just yankin on the previous post...), it's very unlikely that the mid level heights would fall to that depth and we'd stay that wet. 

Didn't Chris just discuss the "intent" of this model's recent upgrade, to correct bloated QPF under snow columns?   Hmm. Interesting.  I almost wonder ... did they fix one thing by breaking something else.  I remember that system in 2017 March, that had a problem with cold sector QPF being terribly managed with 39/31 in 3" total rain ... I recall a lot of anticipation that maybe a better wet bulb reality would make that more snow - what actually happened was 33/32 cat paws and cold rain, but still... it's not like this model has always had really good BL thermodynamics. 

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15 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

what the hell even is this

gfs-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-1343200.thumb.png.feb8e28197eeca6d98a30eb403c36ab7.png

Exotic blocking event ... to use George's vernacular, historic in nature. 

Whether we are destined to this becoming real or not, this type of extremness might be creating panoply of oddly handled (co-mingling) metrics?   Like concurrent 531 dm, 5 contoured closed -4 SD ... 1978 beating 500 mb black hole, with saturated 850 mb temperatures that warm underneath. 

Wrong.

First of all, that is almost thermodynamically impossible.  The saturation vapor pressure of thickness that low won't allow a saturation in liquid form, so it makes it very dubious that the undercarriage could sustain that layer profile. The pseudo-adiabatic gradient would become too exotic to be supported. 

 

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man...overload of eye candy and talk-about cinema available across the pantheon of movie theaters this mid day.  lol -

this is awesome...

That GGEM solution... really really needs to go on thru the next 18 hours. That is a crime letting that sucker stop on that frame.  haha.  That's heading for NESDIS rating of about a 20, on a scale of 1 to 6(?).  You can see it at 500 mb, that jet max isn't even total, where the DPVA is located in the positive aspect of the trough... There are 125kt winds diving/rounding the base.  The 500mb gradient over MIA is perfect.... lower than 582dm/light winds.  Zip inhibition for digging, so ALL those wind momentum get conserved coming around, within the trough structure and no absorbed by the surrounding planetary medium.

= DEATH. period, that is over the top like no one's business and is not some boner vision -that's what this model is doing... sorry. It is.  The trough axis is shifting E while decelerating ...such that it's going to become something never seen before.   Period.  Gotta love the GGEM ( :wacko:) model. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

As expected ensembles are tamer but I think some have some wintry members in there 12-14th or so.

yeah, I was just having fun with the GGEM's "ominosity"  ( did I just make up a new cool sounding word... nice). But in more practical terms, ...didn't we see an exotic solution from the GFS like this ... 4 or so days ago? 

It just really hearkens to the range of possibilities here.   I posed a little quiz to the general audience but will give away the answer, just cuz we're talking about it - the defining difference here is that we're getting more actual western ridging in after region of these trough ejections. It's amazing how important that is in the total morphology down stream.  

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1 hour ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Man.. why are you stirring up controversy. At least 40/70 Benchmark brings some facts and puts in the effort on what the models are showing. Wrong place to come at someone who is probably one of the more grounded and brings factual posts to this forum. 

When you have something that explains your reasoning to differ..than post that, not insults. 

Again I just started my opinion in a post that had nothing to do with him and he called me a “puke”? That’s ok? That’s why I fired back. 

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11 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Calling me a ‘puke’ for stating my opinion is ok though?

You are probably right that that is too much, but maybe you should look at yourself and how you choose to engage?  I dunno, but Ray brings actual expertise, unlike me and probably you.  But you throw shots at Mets, that's what I remember.

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2 hours ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Pattern change is perpetually 11-15 days a way. Where have we seen that before? :lol:

It's December 4th. Climo every single year says you are at least 11-15 days from a chance of a threat. If you are misinterpreting what everyone is saying when they are talking about nne and the interior, it's on you and no one else. 

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