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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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13 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

It has felt like Groundhog day here the last week.

Big blocking patterns set us up for this....we get lots of hype leading them, but the payoff is usually delayed. Add in that it's the start of the season and it's a perfect storm of angst.. especially considering we got screwed by the largest RNA on record last December.

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2 minutes ago, greenmtnwx said:

Worry about your own game, plenty to keep you busy there. 

Man.. why are you stirring up controversy. At least 40/70 Benchmark brings some facts and puts in the effort on what the models are showing. Wrong place to come at someone who is probably one of the more grounded and brings factual posts to this forum. 

When you have something that explains your reasoning to differ..than post that, not insults. 

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3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-1670112000-1670652000-1670997600-10.thumb.gif.cec305b599b5f4fb49660d9cfc496e56.gif

the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out

I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom-1670112000-1670997600-1671408000-10.thumb.gif.6b00ceee654a2395d04b73d3f15f5343.gif

I believe a +EAMT would help if we can get another one or a few of them this winter. I heard flare-up in IO is having an influence on sensible weather also.

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10 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

I believe a +EAMT would help if we can get another one or a few of them this winter. I heard flare-up in IO is having an influence on sensible weather also.

It would be nice to see a -WPO ...yeah.   Seeing as everything is W--> E ( ultimately) and not -NAO controlled.  haha. 

But I've been watching the eastern Asian/west Pacific for signs of a -WPO to help transmit a AB signal down through the N. Pacific Basin and we're not getting it as of the last month.

It's interesting (then) that we are still getting episodic -EPO's in the models because the WPO caries a positive correlation with the EPO.  +WPO wouldn't infer. I'm wondering if we are actually verifying these -EPOs though?  that's a good question.   

In the general sense of things ... a better Pacific would help matters for winter enthusiasts.

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It’s been talked about a lot here, but another good thread (and image) highlighting where the ensemble uncertainty lies.
 

41 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Nice discussion by Will in here.   I am happy we have a delay puts best chances in the magical ten days of Christmas and beyond. Ensembles look pretty damn good. 

My bar is still a warning level event and advisory event by the end of December and that’s still on the table IMO.

If we do get threats and snowfall in the 20th-31st period, a lot of us will be satisfied.

 

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11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It would be nice to see a -WPO ...yeah.   Seeing as everything is W--> E ( ultimately) and not -NAO controlled.  haha. 

But I've been watching the eastern Asian/west Pacific for signs of a -WPO to help transmit a AB signal down through the N. Pacific Basin and we're not getting it as of the last month.

It's interesting (then) that we are still getting episodic -EPO's in the models because the WPO caries a positive correlation with the EPO.  +WPO wouldn't infer. I'm wondering if we are actually verifying these -EPOs though?  that's a good question.   

In the general sense of things ... a better Pacific would help matters for winter enthusiasts.

The eps has a +wpo and epo trending positive but hopefully we will get what we need to get the pacific in better shape because it don't look like the -ao/nao is having much luck unfortunately. I'm not as smart as you guys are with weather, but if the gefs is correct with the mjo progression, it's going to be a while before it gets where we want it. Something to think about

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26 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

The eps has a +wpo and epo trending positive but hopefully we will get what we need to get the pacific in better shape because it don't look like the -ao/nao is having much luck unfortunately. I'm not as smart as you guys are with weather, but if the gefs is correct with the mjo progression, it's going to be a while before it gets where we want it. Something to think about

You're on point...   The MJO's behavior is (likely) because it is/has been in destructive interference against the La Nina basin footprint.   The La Nina has been remarkably well -coupled this autumn.   

Personally, ( full disclosure ) I was optimistic that would not be the case (the La Nina part of it). Ha.  It would be more loosely coupled, which is not unprecedented over the last 10 years of varying ENSO states ( much to the chagrin of those that are heavily ENSO reliant).  The recent decadal history of that was a hopeful trend that we would not have this longitudinal flow structure coming into western N/A.  

It wasn't just that ...there is a growing body of transition season behavioral evidence for seasonal lapsing.  We have observed early/late cool snaps capably of harboring actual snow events, as early as Octobers and as late as Mays, going back to 2000.  This has - more or less to be determined causally - been coinciding with the acceleration of climate changing during these last 20 years. Whether that is so or not, a statistical oddity in the least, but it also played into the idea above.  If seasonal lapse was causing W/NE N/A ridging early, while (perhaps) La Nina were vague --> ..etc.  

Neither seemed to materialize per that hope - I mean... it wasn't an 'expectation,' it really was hoping.    Ah well... 

There is a statistical bases for 'early performing' La Nina winters. It's perhaps related to the fact that ENSO signals tend to decouple more so during summers, for obvious reasons related to planetary relaxation of gradient turning off triggers/dispersion mechanics...etc.  So that does provide a narrow window for late Novie to early Jan ... but it's not dependable. It's just adding a little.  

That's not doing too well either LOL.

 

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5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Ray approved. DC blizzard and rains to maines.

That's a delicious cinema though.... the 246 frame would probably arrest breathing. 

Boy, the need more hot dog venders in the modeling core to encourage letting these kind of movie reals go out further. HAHA

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