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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Very true but 99% in this forum average several inches of December snowfall per season, much more in the mountains. 

True. If I were more north than I am...or still had snowmobiles I'd be seeing how NNE usually has more by now. But for this area we're pretty much on par. We had 1.5 inches a couple weeks back, but I never expect much before the holidays 

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Just now, UnitedWx said:

True. If I were more north than I am...or still had snowmobiles I'd be seeing how NNE usually has more by now. But for this area we're pretty much on par. We had 1.5 inches a couple weeks back, but I never expect much before the holidays 

ya I'd imagine 75% of the average December snowfall is post Dec 15th.

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8 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Very true but 99% in this forum average several inches of December snowfall per season, much more in the mountains. 

Ya , SNE and the entire CP of New England doesn’t usually see much before the 15’th 

While The ole snow stake at the picnic tables may look way below average a week from now . I think it’s probably 6-7” now and ave should creep above 20” next week and mid week rain should pat that down :)

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22 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It definitely seems as if the GEFS has been flip flopping all over the place with the Pacific and the EPS has been more consistent with the December 13-20 period as Will and BrooklynWx said.  One worry as will said, the GEFS was the first to nail the Dec 6-10 period.  Considering EPS consistency recently you'd like to side with the EPS for the December 13-20 period..  Definitely a better vibe to the 00z runs than 12z yesterday, lets see if we can do it again at 12z today and get closer to next weekend with a good pattern to look forward to.  The good pattern is still kind of being pushed back to post day 10, I really want that to move up to day 7/8..  One small not technical thing I follow is all 3 ensembles were very snowy in the 10-15 day for the first time all year especially interior SNE on north..  

I actually noticed this too thougj I looked more at individual members. Even GEFS we’re pretty snowy. Just not as snowy as EPS. EPS had a LOT of snowy members…and we’re more snowy for 12/12-13. GEFS really ramped it up after that threat. 

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a

2 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

still think that the period around the 12th holds a good amount of potential... looks like a strong shortwave gets forced under the block and amplifies

...

the EPS is really nice looking after the 12-14th threat. the -NAO sits in the Davis Strait and the West Coast becomes more favorable as the MJO straightens itself out

I still believe that we're going to see a lot of chances after the 15th as the pattern fully develops. these take time to form... there was even lots of frustration before BDB in 2010

....

I'm not completely sold that the 9th .. 10th period - admittedly now just 6.5-ish days away and thus "outer medium range" - should be ignored for winter enthusiasm, if not more practical operational needs frankly.

Here is the 06z mean, which en masse is an increased implication along a four consecutive cycles, with a classic W-smeared spread, within larger synoptic envelope that is pretty classic -NAO ...with large polar high parked quintessentially N-NE of Maine ...  

image.png.f8541b2281e84b01370bdecfee643f52.png

Farmer John's odds ... I'd place them around 30%  ... 25, a non-zero but more importantly, elevating risk, if one chooses to use this GEFs means. 

More over, the behavior of the individual members still showing general poor handling of the NAO exertion of the local hemisphere. Predictive skill is fleeting. There's variety there, with a growing tendency ( also hinted now in the operational version) to even meld the 10th escape failure, into the latter 12.13 system arrival. That's creating a morass of possibilities there, ranging from a complete suppression, to a protracted light cooling QPF event that probably evolves into a winter profile. And all likely to be parsed into something more real/discrete only upon shorter terms.  There's really very low actual deterministic value ...even as near as the D6 above... But I can tell you, it is not merely subjective ...rather is objective, that there are a large number of significant events in the catalogues that had a D6..7 synoptic structure and spread that looked like that above, and the westerly smear turned out to be telling.    

Also, this hearkens back to 5 days ago: the reasoning and advice then, that these "threats" would emerge in short order compared to either normal signals at range, or user preference ( haha, clearly on the latter, huh), ... really, none of that has changed, despite the range between the neg vs pos narratives owned by various posters.    

You don't know.      you don't.   ;)   

Fwiw - the 17th has an impressive multi-cycle presentation, too.   In fact, that's keeping with both the consensus for colder hemisphere deeper in the month, but also not a bad intuitive fit for the climate suggested gestation wrt the super synopsis when dealing with modestly elevating PNA's during either collapse or pulsed -NAOs. 

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This thread is a good example of the downside of having so much information available to us at our fingertips these days. 30 years ago all we would know is that there’s a chance that the patterns going to turn wintery mid month.  Which is probably going to happen. I enjoy the discussions of every model run just like everyone else but the big picture seems pretty clear. Probably we’re going to turn Wintery next two weeks and the potential for snow storms is enhanced by an unending signal of high latitude blocking. And the fact that we’re getting to the time of the year when it starts to get cold, even when the temperature is average or a bit above.   Details to be determined.

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Gfs op is just digging and digging troughs into CA and just offshore. That’s the issue. 

 

In all honesty what upstream conditions is the gfs seeing / hallucinating that wants to make it continually dig for gold by Sw Cali and is it prone to doing this or what are model bias in that region with persistent troughing if any . It’s pretty clear that area will see a trough that will be established This week , it’s more when does it abate 

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26 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

This thread is a good example of the downside of having so much information available to us at our fingertips these days. 30 years ago all we would know is that there’s a chance that the patterns going to turn wintery mid month.  Which is probably going to happen. I enjoy the discussions of every model run just like everyone else but the big picture seems pretty clear. Probably we’re going to turn Wintery next two weeks and the potential for snow storms is enhanced by an unending signal of high latitude blocking. And the fact that we’re getting to the time of the year when it starts to get cold, even when the temperature is average or a bit above.   Details to be determined.

What-application of logic?   What’s the world coming to!

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