Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Fortunately the 18z gfs came in more amped with the day 5.5-6 system and it isn’t suppressed this run ..unfortunately as it tracks under long island the air mass is torched except for Catskills / Berks I've noticed that about the GFS. Whenever it cuts the low, the airmass ahead is colder, but erodes after a period of snow/sleet amounting to 1/2" mockery. When it collapses and respects the NAO hemisphere ...it's warm on the N side of the storm tracks. Seems the model has been parameterized ...not to snow like on purpose. hahaha joking- 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 39 minutes ago, qg_omega said: 10 to 15 day ensembles have no skill, the 10 to 15 day ensemble mean looked good two weeks ago as does today’s….as I said many times statistically it is worse than a coin flip That is not statistically worse than a coin flip. A coin flip means something is not correlated at all. We’re talking independent trials. It would be a 0 on that graph. A correlation of 0.4 is not ironclad but it is statistically significant. If you started getting “opposite” results of what you expect, then your correlation is negative. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Rain It’s at least something I’ll be tracking that’s well inside 10 days. That was as amped as I’ve seen it and you can see this is basically a western threat if it’s gonna do much anywhere Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 2 hours ago, greenmtnwx said: Wnswmbkea Ensembles look better, but they have regressed as well. Bottom line is I don’t care how negative the NAO is, it’s not getting rid of that stubborn SE ridge without a western ridge developing. We need help with the PNA, otherwise the SE ridge is the most dominant feature. You are in Vermont. Don’t you want a se ridge given the blocking developing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said: It still may happen.. but this uneasiness that most of us here are feeling is not for naught. We simply cannot waste the first 3 weeks of December and expect it will just flip to snow and chill Um yes we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Another transfer situation next weekend but no cold air around once again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 We need the rain. Reservoirs still low around here. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We need the rain. Reservoirs still low around here. Many many days of kids stuck in house making noise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s at least something I’ll be tracking that’s well inside 10 days. That was as amped as I’ve seen it and you can see this is basically a western threat if it’s gonna do much anywhere Reminds me a little of Dec 5, 2020…hammered ORH hills and monads with warning level paste but was a sloppy 1-4” for the rest of the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another transfer situation next weekend but no cold air around once again There’s enough cold air up here but it doesn’t get precip into New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 18 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s at least something I’ll be tracking that’s well inside 10 days. That was as amped as I’ve seen it and you can see this is basically a western threat if it’s gonna do much anywhere This is a kind of 'personalism' but this is one of the "blue-bomb months" of the year. Granted, on the front side...but by the time 156 hours rolls around we're out around the 9th...which is getting into the sweet climo of whence marginal wet forecasts bust cotton balls. This can happen any point in autumn and spring, really... Seeing that cartoon layout with blue holes punched in it over western MA/E NY ...etc, is obviously there because it's "marginal" ... Two aspects: one, ... trending colder as the system nears was a bankable error correction up to about 15 years ago... Since, either model improvements, climate change, or both, seem seems to lend to less of that... That said, a -2 SD west limb NAO may tilt that the other way. So there's some speculation art here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 19 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is not statistically worse than a coin flip. A coin flip means something is not correlated at all. We’re talking independent trials. It would be a 0 on that graph. A correlation of 0.4 is not ironclad but it is statistically significant. If you started getting “opposite” results of what you expect, then your correlation is negative. The overt skeptical position sees theirs/the 50% on their side as an extraordinarily large value LOL just sayn' good luck. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: That is not statistically worse than a coin flip. A coin flip means something is not correlated at all. We’re talking independent trials. It would be a 0 on that graph. A correlation of 0.4 is not ironclad but it is statistically significant. If you started getting “opposite” results of what you expect, then your correlation is negative. I think I've seen NCEP use 0.6 as the "useful" cutoff. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 6 minutes ago, dendrite said: I think I've seen NCEP use 0.6 as the "useful" cutoff. Yeah like the NAO has a temp correlation of 0.4 here during peak winter months…it loosely means colder but it has a ton of wiggle room so I don’t place a lot of value on it. It gets to like 0.6 once you are down in Dc and VA and those types of areas so it’s a bigger deal. But the main point is that you cannot be “worse than a coin flip” without being an inverse (negative) correlation. Coin flip would be exactly 0.0 correlation since they are completely independent random trials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 23 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Another transfer situation next weekend but no cold air around once again It’s probably best to check out for a few weeks and hopefully the good pattern isn’t still 15 days away when you return. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: We need the rain. Reservoirs still low around here. This is true, still running a deficit here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Well yes Monday is December 5th and is next week. It’s delayed about a week from the initial great pattern depiction about 2 weeks back. But it quickly turned into a December 7-9 pattern change last weekend, however the past two days has now turned it into December 13+. I am a bit uneasy about the delay too, however if we can get this pattern into the 5-10 day range instead of the 10-15 day range I’d feel much better. I have been saying for days I am not going to worry about the upcoming pattern until at least one met shows concerns Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah like the NAO has a temp correlation of 0.4 here during peak winter months…it loosely means colder but it has a ton of wiggle room so I don’t place a lot of value on it. It gets to like 0.6 once you are down in Dc and VA and those types of areas so it’s a bigger deal. But the main point is that you cannot be “worse than a coin flip” without being an inverse (negative) correlation. Coin flip would be exactly 0.0 correlation since they are completely independent random trials. Right ..but the crux of his post was to show having high confidence in ensembles Days 11-15 is not warranted . Now I know all set ups are not created equally so is it higher than normal with a PNA/ /NAO set up we are hoping makes it inside 9-10 days by mid week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDRY Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 What a crazy pattern. Coastals are tracking in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Just now, RDRY said: What a crazy pattern. Coastals are tracking in the opposite direction. But still resulting in rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: But still resulting in rain. I still think this will be a good interior pattern when all said and done. I do think the coast will just have to wait until maybe after the 14th or 15th. Sounds like climo to me. Everyone is so jumping the gun and not looking at the fucking calendar. 5 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: I still think this will be a good interior pattern when all said and done. I do think the coast will just have to wait until maybe after the 14th or 15th. Sounds like climo to me. Everyone is so jumping the gun and not looking at the fucking calendar. Can’t imagine anyone doing good in the next three weeks, the pattern screams rain to Maine. There is no cold air under the block and the PV is gone. One of the worst patterns we have seen in December in many many years. Hard to get 5 straight rain events in NNE in December but that’s on deck 1 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 10 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Right ..but the crux of his post was to show having high confidence in ensembles Days 11-15 is not warranted . Now I know all set ups are not created equally so is it higher than normal with a PNA/ /NAO set up we are hoping makes it inside 9-10 days by mid week That is way different than saying they have no skill. I would drain all of your money quite quickly if you kept giving me even money odds on something that has a 0.4 correlation. Like if you said “I’ll take the coin flip solution and you take the EPS at day 14-15”….you’d get annihilated pretty fast. Nobody should ever take long range ensembles as very high confidence. But they are useful and have skill. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I still think this will be a good interior pattern when all said and done. I do think the coast will just have to wait until maybe after the 14th or 15th. Sounds like climo to me. Everyone is so jumping the gun and not looking at the fucking calendar. It’s very early here. I’d almost prefer a better period centered around the holidays if possible. However, it’s okay to discuss things don’t look as good in the last few days. It is what it is. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 This second round of wind driven rain certainly sucks tho. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: That is way different than saying they have no skill. I would drain all of your money quite quickly if you kept giving me even money odds on something that has a 0.4 correlation. Like if you said “I’ll take the coin flip solution and you take the EPS at day 14-15”….you’d get annihilated pretty fast. Nobody should ever take long range ensembles as very high confidence. But they are useful and have skill. In this pattern with short wave lengths and lots of blocking, I would suspect correlation coefficients near 0.2 or worse in 10 to 15 day ensemble range. Would easily bet on an opposite look of that today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 There's a few that have been leading the pack with this pessimism. I honestly and truly don't care if it doesn't snow until after Christmas. We don't truly get our winter weather going until January or February and even March. Our biggest snow storms ever have been in those months. Less common to have them in December. I would love to have some snow by Christmas. That would be awesome. But am I going to crawl into a hole and die. Am I going to keep on talking about how horrible this is and how I told you so and how I said that I knew this was going to happen and the pattern wasn't going to change. Or that It was going to keep getting pushed back. No. Those of you who have been saying that can keep on torturing yourselves lol. I'll be ready when that big one comes about. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 Walking the streets of Burlington VT-47 with squally rain at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Walking the streets of Burlington VT-47 with squally rain at times. Deep winter indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted December 3, 2022 Share Posted December 3, 2022 You hate to see the F bombs .. jk .. i prob care less about the weather in my specific spot more than most bc I’ll drive to snow Like a degenerate Feind . My schedule and work let’s me do this more than ever this year . Once we get passed mid week rain to Quebec I’ll be relaxed as long as NNE doesn’t torch post that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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