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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The GFS at 12 Z offers yet another option… Completely remove any effect of the NAO exertion …allowing 13.14.15 to Grinch through the Lakes. 
 
you know the recurrence of that kind of phenomenon is getting more and more difficult as the years go by to believe it’s purely random lol

No but I’m not sure this model run really fits the mode of what’s going on here.  I’d probably give this run a lower probability of success

Ya, I think it has a much lower probability of success too.  
 

it would be a kin to having that run show a massive east coast cold/snow system, with a pattern that has a raging pig over Alaska, and a -PNA to Costa Rica..doesn’t fit the pattern being progged.  Pretty low chance imo . 

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3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

See I don’t look at it like that on 12/1…by 12/20 then yes, it would be a lost day. But not yet. Imo. 

That’s just where folks have differing views. To me .. you really only have DJF and after that it’s spring . Sure it snows after that, but it’s high solar angle season and not preferable . I hate wasting December. Just my opinion 

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6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s just where folks have differing views. To me .. you really only have DJF and after that it’s spring . Sure it snows after that, but it’s high solar angle season and not preferable . I hate wasting December. Just my opinion 

Understood.  But I don’t think we’re gonna waste December though.  It can’t snow every day, and we have to establish this incoming pattern first, and the timing seems dam good imo. 

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1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I mean that GFS op run was frighteningly ugly lol.  Was just a different flavor of dog doo then our current one 

Thankfully we all agree it’s tossed  

yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1213600.thumb.png.1f5b65ee9a19c186c0b30edd30869157.png

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52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have this same dream. This aligns well with wanting as many trees and lines downed as possible in wind/ storm events. Don’t want anyone getting hurt , but do like, need, want and enjoy tree and line damage. 

It's suddenly becoming clear... you must be a managing director at Neversource

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1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1213600.thumb.png.1f5b65ee9a19c186c0b30edd30869157.png

Not sure about retrograding back into NS like that but we have see blocks positioned like that. Actually there are some -NAO's where the core of the anomalies extends so far south that parts of NNE actually feature above-average temps during those periods :lol: 

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7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1213600.thumb.png.1f5b65ee9a19c186c0b30edd30869157.png

And just to be funnin’ …I actually wouldn’t mind that position in a scalar sense of it if we could just lop about 30 or 40 dam off the top of that sucker

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1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

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I like the idea of everything stopping. Part of what I dislike about the holiday is feeling forced to visit other places rather than taking the time to just be at home. 

Luckily for us they come to us. I can't imagine being stranded with 20 or so people including like 8 kids. I definitely would be hitting Jerry's Crown and edibles and outside shoveling constantly, hiding in the shed hitting the pipe lol.

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Again again again… The NAO is notoriously stochastic in guidance handling. The fact that this one’s been behaving doing better over the last week or so is really an anomaly in itself  

we’ve been lucky up to this point not to be dealing with that but you know?

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14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah if the block retrogrades to Nova Scotia I'm handing my degree back in. i have never seen anything like that actually happen

gfs-deterministic-nhemi-z500_anom_1day-1213600.thumb.png.1f5b65ee9a19c186c0b30edd30869157.png

Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point...

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

Watching the last 24 hrs of the GEFS, 12z today does have a distinct shift SE of the block around day 10. Could be a hiccup or the start of a trend? Who knows at this point...

At the same time it brings more ringing into Alaska, seems like a whole scale shift. Maybe just a blip, but it does give us a different look for the day 10-15 day period on this particular run.

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You know what would be great, if we could just jump to December 11th. Then we'll all feel more comfortable with what outcome we're going to be seeing four days later.. lol

I think everybody wants a definitive answer on if we're getting a storm, if it's a large snowstorm, if it's a miss to the south, ect... The problem with some of us on here is we wanted an immediate answer now, and we take every single model run as if that's going to be the final outcome.

Things are changing, but it's still going to be a week or so until we know for sure... Patients little grasshoppers 

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