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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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3 minutes ago, OceanStWx said:

Q2. But it's an ensemble upgrade. EPS going to 9 km and the extended is now going be a separate run rather than an extension of the medium range model. 

I feel like all of these additional data streams is like adding fentanyl to the weenies' crack.

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1 minute ago, OceanStWx said:

That's kind of how I feel about the resolution upgrades to the models. Man what I would give for a nice smoothed 80 km fronotogensis grid sometimes. 

Yea, give me a microscope to hone in on mesoscale storm dynamics instead of trying to increase general resolution across the global canvass....its helpful to a point.

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6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

That could trend colder. Normally they trend warmer but with a big block building it could go the opposite 

Yep… I spoke about that earlier that exact same aspect because of the differentiating mass fields the correction factor is likely pointed south , i.e colder solution either way

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Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

Yep… I spoke about that earlier that exact same aspect because of the differentiating mass fields the correction factor is likely pointed south , i.e colder solution either way

I totally glossed over that in my write up yesterday, so would have to back pedal if that keeps trending.

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5 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

T.T. stuck at 156 on the GFS

The world ends on that day. The billionaires are already heading to their top secret enclaves to wait it out. Appears an extra terrestrial event is going to happen that surpasses Carrington by perhaps a factor of 5. 
 

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The extremely amplified EPO ridge is often something that causes systems to trend colder inside of 7 days....we have been talking a lot about the developing monster NAO block, but in the early stages of that, we actually have a very stout EPO ridge dumping cold into Canada....see below.....this is what is starting to cause the flow to become flatter over the east....pressing the cold further south ahead of the Dec 6-7 system

 

 

Nov30_12zGFS120.png

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Just now, MJOatleast7 said:

Looks like crazy velocity though - whatever forms should be quick hitting

Yes, Dec 6-7 would be an overrunning/SWFE type winter system if it trends cold. The potential for coastal storms would be later into the pattern....most likely beyond 12/12.

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28 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, Dec 6-7 would be an overrunning/SWFE type winter system if it trends cold. The potential for coastal storms would be later into the pattern....most likely beyond 12/12.

In some respect it's pointless to sweat the details of model runs this time of year. A good pattern will put snow down somewhere, and that will ultimately change the baroclinicity that affects future events. 

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