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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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9 hours ago, MJO812 said:

18z Para gfs is worlds better than the regular goofus

Interestingly… The ensuing 0Z operational Gfs was - imo – largely improved over priors in terms of actually representing some of the forcing we’ve been collectively observing in the ensembles for the past week. Pretty much one of the first ones I’ve seen actually do that…

I’d also watch 7.8.9.in addition to 13.14.15

Those two intervals have been there pretty much all the while in spite of all the modeled din and fractal efforts to hide them it in the noise. It’s understandable for the midmonth. Christ, talking about at the 300+ range

I think the 8th has a chance to be a flat, minoring event with option for more should a GGEM -like solution pass under our latitude. Low levels in either GGEM or Euro option look cold due to low level thickness wedging off erstwhile -EPO passing over recent improvements in cryosphere in Canada    The Canadian has a deep vortex coming overhead and deepening further at 500 mbar, pinning under the -NAO … which this latter aspect is shown some remarkable residence/continuity for a long while as we all know by now.  

The 8th period of time is over 7 days away so there’s time for that to modulate into a little bit more of a concern. Not a leap to tell winter enthusiast an opportunity to monitor. It’s really the inflection in the index modal change in the NAO. Which has admittedly a lower but still above N/S correlation with activity over the eastern mid latitudes of the continent for a reason. 

0ZGFS has the 8th system passage but it seems to be responding to NAO forcing later than the other two guidance types and that -assuming causality - allows it to sneak west through the Detroit transit 

The folks that are seeking big dogs it’s more likely the event between the 13th and 15th evolves that way imo from what I’ve been seeing lately. Bearing in mind … in this context that is like I don’t know the difference between 10% above climo vs 20% above climo… because it’s just too far out in time. Definitely fits the larger hemispheric timing and cadence tho.  Interesting. 
 

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I feel like we could have an 07-08 type of assembly line, but with a better Arctic.

 

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

But that would have been 1995-1996 if it had blocking.

I'm not sure enough people appreciate how high the ceiling is this season....the most  likely outcome? No. Did I forecast it? No. But this season has about as a high of a ceiling as you will ever see due to a pretty unique set of circumstances around the globe...I will bet some place east of the Mississippi gets a top 5 season.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

I'm not sure enough people appreciate how high the ceiling is this season....the most  likely outcome? No. Did I forecast it? No. But this season has about as a high of a ceiling as you will ever see due to a pretty unique set of circumstances around the globe...I will bet some place east of the Mississippi gets a top 5 season.

Hopefully I get to see a 100 inch winter in my lifetime but most likely I would have to move to see that .

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Interestingly… The ensuing 0Z operational Gfs was - imo – largely improved over priors in terms of actually representing some of the forcing we’ve been collectively observing in the ensembles for the past week. Pretty much one of the first ones I’ve seen actually do that…

I’d also watch 7.8.9.in addition to 13.14.15

Those two intervals have been there pretty much all the while in spite of all the modeled din and fractal efforts to hide them it in the noise. It’s understandable for the midmonth. Christ, talking about at the 300+ range

I think the 8th has a chance to be a flat, minoring event with option for more should a GGEM -like solution pass under our latitude. Low levels in either GGEM or Euro option look cold due to low level thickness wedging off erstwhile -EPO passing over recent improvements in cryisphere in Canada    The Canadian has a deep vortex coming overhead and deepening further at 500 mbar, pinning under the -NAO … which this latter aspect is shown some remarkable residence/continuity for a long while as we all know by now.  

The 8th period of time is is over 7 days away so there’s time for that to modulate into a little bit more of a concern. Not a leap to tell winter enthusiast an opportunity to monitor. It’s really the inflection in the index modal change in the NAO. Which has admittedly a lower but still above N/S correlation with activity over the eastern mid latitudes of the continent for a reason. 

0ZGFS has the 8th system passage but it seems to be responding to NAO forcing later than the other two guidance types and that -assuming causality - allows it to sneak west through the Detroit transit 

The folks are seeking big dogs it’s more likely the event between the 13th and 15th evolves that way even when I’ve been seeing lately. But more likely in this context is like I don’t know the difference between 10% above climo vs 20% above climo… because it’s just too far out in time. Definitely fits the larger hemispheric timing and cadence tho.  Interesting. 
 

December is def the time of year that I am most receptive to minor events...I am with Kev on that. Getting wintery set ups to coincide with the solar nadir and the holiday season is special.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'd say the odds of NYC pulling a 100" season in your lifetime are about 30%.

Probably lower but everything has to go right for that to happen.

 

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny how @snowman21 hasn't been quoting as many of his tweets of late...he'll be back for the thaw in January lol

Snowman19

He does this everytime 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

If I am not mistaken passage through 8,1,2 is preferred.

Thereafter a high amplitude wave comes around the bend. Hope that leads to another 8,1,2 passage.

image.png.727b7614f9d89407689168763cf279f2.png

 

7 is fine my for my area, but it gets dicey south of here.

Frankly, I am okay with the MJO taking a nice, long nap given the where the background forcing is headed with la nina right now.

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1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

7 is fine my for my area, but it gets dicey south of here.

Frankly, I am okay with the MJO taking a nice, long nap given the where the background forcing is headed with la nina right now.

Yeah I think we want COD for the MJO right now after it passes through 8 and 1....no need to screw up a good pattern with some other variable.

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5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I would hedge higher because crazy shit is going to go down with climate change.

Maybe it starts this winter :weenie:

2 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I think Snowman19 was banned for trolling Brooklynwx99.

Rjay said he is not 

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

7 is fine my for my area, but it gets dicey south of here.

Frankly, I am okay with the MJO taking a nice, long nap given the where the background forcing is headed with la nina right now.

Hopefully this is the last la nina winter.

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4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I think we want COD for the MJO right now after it passes through 8 and 1....no need to screw up a good pattern with some other variable.

I think it would struggle to impart much deconstructive interference in the milder phases right now, but I would rather play it safe in keep it dormant after skirting into 8, which is what "looks" to happen.

This colder, stormier flip is DEEPLY rooted in the tropics...its not some hail-mary wave break from a recurving typhoon.

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it would struggle to impart much deconstructive interference in the milder phases right now, but I would rather play it safe in keep it dormant after skirting into 8, which is what "looks" to happen.

This colder, stormier flip is DEEPLY rooted in the tropics...its not some hail-mary wave break from a recurving typhoon.

The EURO has what you want as compared to the GEFS with the COD

image.png.92fffb6bbeb8e69e052a71c1f5bf99c8.png

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1 minute ago, EastonSN+ said:

Courtesy of CAPE from the MA forum.

We can hope for the Holidays!

image.thumb.png.090f8090b7d47fc754d7c19b777d7484.png

Full blown El Nino North Pacific look. I'm a bit skeptical it looks that nice, but the EPS were showing a more favorable PAC near the end of the run.

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44 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December is def the time of year that I am most receptive to minor events...I am with Kev on that. Getting wintery set ups to coincide with the solar nadir and the holiday season is special.

Good thing as I think the Windex potential rises significantly. Wouldn't be surprised if Thursday features some dying LES and Windex.

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It’s good speculation but the reason the MJO has been reproducing that same behavior of collapsing into to the COD astride the 7/8 quadrants of the RMM has more to do with the wave attempting to move out of the marine continent … straight into a headlong -ENSO circulation footprint. And not being strong enough … it loses out within that destructive tension. Notice the wave seems to briefly amplify in 7s? Anology is a wave rearing up nearing the shore  

Phase 8 —> 1..2 is actually a constructive interference wrt the -AO should it succeed. It destabilizes the AA phase of the N PAC Basin … triggering tendencies for wave migration into higher latitudes which proceeds blocking events.     

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15 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The EURO has what you want as compared to the GEFS with the COD

image.png.92fffb6bbeb8e69e052a71c1f5bf99c8.png

Keep in mind … the COD is a weakened state …. It’s exertion in terms of forcing wave mechanical dispersion/modulation downstream drops below the forcing of the westerlies and becomes lower correlative. 

In other words …  phase 8.1.2 migrations while within the COD do not represent in the pattern very well. 

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