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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like people are also getting limited data on the free sites like 500mb height anomalies and trying to corroborate that with srfc temps. Can anyone take a guess what the srfc temps look like with this look??

 

image.png.e86045077ec13ed68f2f7a443694fe51.png

My guess is relatively cool with the cold bleeding down from central Canada and being pinned into place underneath the block.

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2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its not only about color shades on the H5 maps....its about the heights relative to the ambient envt....its tough to get warm with very high heights to your north, unless you have a raging PAC jet, which we do not in that image.

Cold to mint julip land as the late Bruce Schwoegler used to say.

image.png.8039d4941ee86281d33b0935afa4427a.png

 

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2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

If I’m reading it right Looks pretty average for All New England -2 to 1 over cape and tad higher over NE Maine 

warm anomalies as close as Nova Scotia +10 line And -5 line back in C Pa/ NY 

 

I don't mean to take it verbatim...my point is that people are seeing warm height anomalies at 500 and assuming torch. I also don't want deep blues sitting over my head.  

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18 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I feel like people are also getting limited data on the free sites like 500mb height anomalies and trying to corroborate that with srfc temps. Can anyone take a guess what the srfc temps look like with this look??

 

image.png.e86045077ec13ed68f2f7a443694fe51.png

The biggest pope torch you can imagine obviously. Sandals, pina colada’s, and beach volleyball. 

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There’s also a subtle tendency to delay the onset of -EPO … which others seem to interpret as a zonal regression? It’s still a curvilinear flow around the Alaskan sector given more time, however. 

As far as the -EPO … it’s really kind of required to set the -NAO into retrograde d(amp) through complex/transitive wave transmission … I mean you can see the sequencing of the hemisphere spanning 10 or so days.  First the EPO —> some sort of Dec 7..8 trough ejection through the east —> big chunk of warm hgts/advection surge up the western wall of the semi permanent W Atlantic ridge, which migrates into the lower D Straight where it marries in and triggers repositions the the -NAO from the eastern toward the western limb of the domain.. It all started back in the C-NE Pacific in the mid range.  It’s fascinating really. How the PAC transmits a wave signal around the globe like that. 

…anyway with all those moving pieces going on over the next 7 to 10 days I mean it’s utterly in germane to even consider what a singular model guidance is illustrating on day 8 through 15+

but I get it… people are bored.  Plus there’s a little bit of addiction to excitement going on when it comes to the stuff that’s another discussion lol. All this stuff looks really intriguing but it doesn’t mean jack if we gotta wait 10 days …looking out the window and it looks like it does right now which is completely uninspired. So all that people have to talk about is really their addiction withdrawals lol

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For what it’s worth… Probably nothing for this group but Saturday may just be very nice out of doors if it doesn’t get too windy.

By Sunday we have a really impressive negative EPO structure with a very intense cold plume channeling down the eastern front range of the Canadian Rockies towards Manitoba in this operational Euro run.  Insane gradient from the border states to Florida

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

For what it’s worth… Probably nothing for this group but Saturday may just be very nice out of doors if it doesn’t get too windy.

By Sunday we have a really impressive negative EPO structure with a very intense cold plume channeling down the eastern front range of the Canadian Rockies towards Manitoba in this operational Euro run.  Insane gradient from the border states to Florida

My yard work crucible pretty much ended this past weekend.....not too much left, but I took full advantage of the mild interludes.

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The pattern change is going to go through multiple stages....when the block is first forming, we get the torch with a likely cutter or warmer type system going to our northwest (Dec 5-7) which actually feeds back into the block.....2nd, we get the initial cold push which still has higher heights in the south. This is what Tip was commenting on earlier with "Velocity" issue. This would be like in the Dec 8-12 time frame. We can get a system in this type of flow, but usually clippers and SWFEs.

Then finally, you get the higher heights in the south retrograding into the western plains and Rockies (post 12/12....heading toward mid-month) which is what Scooter was talking about above....that's more of a big dog look. That's a very good pattern for larger snow events for us. Hopefully it sets up and hopefully we cash in.

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11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the EPS looks sweet in the 11-15. It's doing exactly what others have said...ridge retros and we pop a Rockies ridge with mean trough Great lakes. That's a good look. 

Yup.   EPS is king today in weenieish progs.  GEFS was damned good too.  GEPS is tossed.

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