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December 2022 Obs/Disc


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4 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure if it has a seasonal forecasting impact but impressive nonetheless 

 

I haven't kept up in recent months, but back in the first weeks after the eruption, I recall reading that it didn't eject enough mass sulfates up into the stratosphere to really be anything close to something like a Pinatubo when it comes to climate impacts.

I'm guessing that is still the case....a lot of the material probably stayed under water and/or settled back to the earth as much of it never got high enough to get into the stratosphere.

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8 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Not sure if it has a seasonal forecasting impact but impressive nonetheless 

 

Unrelated to meteorology per se but it seems that area of the world has a history of these kind of single pop detonation out of the blue… I.e. Krakatoa and the like. Tambora too. I’m not sure that Krakatoa or Tambora gave very many warning signs before hand? I’m not sure that.  But this thing just showed up. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I haven't kept up in recent months, but back in the first weeks after the eruption, I recall reading that it didn't eject enough mass sulfates up into the stratosphere to really be anything close to something like a Pinatubo when it comes to climate impacts.

I'm guessing that is still the case....a lot of the material probably stayed under water and/or settled back to the earth as much of it never got high enough to get into the stratosphere.

Probably right. I wonder how big an impact we would have seen if this was above water. -1 to -1.5C globally?

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Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Probably right. I wonder how big an impact we would have seen if this was above water. -1 to -1.5C globally?

I saw the same that Will saw. I also saw that it injected a lot of water vapor into the stratosphere and some were wondering if that actually would help warm the atmosphere (troposphere) in the coming years...but that's the extent I have heard.

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35 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

And people think Stowe doesn’t represent SNE , odd

and yes even the 90% of the forum staring at green grass for a month there was a pattern change from obscene warmth , that’s clear 

Yeah the north probably had one of the stronger changes too… from BTV 120 year all-time November max to 4-5” of snow even at BTV airport within like a week is quite a flip.

 

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18 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Huge blocking on the gfs. Gfs is finally showing a loaded pattern.

It finally gets rid of the cutter city look, only to replace it with the congrats Gulf coast states look while we freeze the ponds over and solidify our brown yards. Hopefully the answer lies in between. Some SWFEs and clippers would be ok to start of the first couple weeks of December....

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Just now, Spanks45 said:

It finally gets rid of the cutter city look, only to replace it with the congrats Gulf coast states look while we freeze the ponds over and solidify our brown yards. Hopefully the answer lies in between. Some SWFEs and clippers would be ok to start of the first couple weeks of December....

Yes it establishes a better footprint there, but I think it’s also hinting at some of the compression/limitation associated with too much velocity that we were talking about earlier…

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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yes it establishes a better footprint there, but I think it’s also hinting at some of the compression/limitation associated with too much velocity that we were talking about earlier…

We could use some blocking to our northeast to slow the pattern down a bit. Otherwise it's the paper shredder....

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3 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

no, not really. these retrograding Scandinavian blocking events are usually picked up at range just like most anomalous weather events. March 2018 was modeled at 10-15 days out and never waivered

there are definitely some similarities between the two blocking events:

  • initial SE ridging that gets squashed 
  • a strong Aleutian high
  • western trough
  • Plains ridging that eventually retrogrades to the Rockies, leading to a trough over the east and a favorable pattern for larger storms 

this is kind of what I expect to happen here, but every setup is different

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Yea I posted a March 18 map several pages back.

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2 minutes ago, Hazey said:

You don't want to rely on a -NAO to save the winter but it is what it is.  We'll ride it and see what happens. Hopefully we can get a bit of snow down for the holidays for festive appeal.

With La Niña especially stronger ones we need a -NAO otherwise everything will cut. La Niña and a raging positive NAO is a disaster, that’s how you end up with 2011-2012. The flip side of that though is when you do get a really strong -NAO, you would rather have a powerful Nina to offset the suppression risk. In my opinion the strength of the La Niña actually helped us in 2010-2011, it made it so instead of the mid Atlantic getting clobbered New England got clobbered. 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were both strong -nao winters, but 2009-2010 was a strong Nino and 2010-2011 was a strong Nina. My area got more than double the snowfall totals in 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.

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1 minute ago, George001 said:

With La Niña especially stronger ones we need a -NAO otherwise everything will cut. La Niña and a raging positive NAO is a disaster, that’s how you end up with 2011-2012. The flip side of that though is when you do get a really strong -NAO, you would rather have a powerful Nina to offset the suppression risk. In my opinion the strength of the La Niña actually helped us in 2010-2011, it made it so instead of the mid Atlantic getting clobbered New England got clobbered. 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 were both strong -nao winters, but 2009-2010 was a strong Nino and 2010-2011 was a strong Nina. My area got more than double the snowfall totals in 2010-2011 than 2009-2010.

Has the MA ever been snow wise ground zero in a nina?   Maybe 1995-96 but that was widespread wealth.

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Just another article that was written last night again on the upcoming pattern and what they're thinking is going to happen for the upcoming Winter season. Again, very positive for us to have an active winter here in the east. 

https://justinweather.com/2022/11/27/how-the-winter-weather-pattern-may-develop-in-early-december/

Screenshot_20221128-125935.thumb.png.0f313535c8869e92fbdb29fa38795f71.png

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