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December 2022 Obs/Disc


40/70 Benchmark
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27 minutes ago, weathafella said:

We all said that.  But that isn’t the point.  I thought about what qq said and realized that while not likely, it is plausible.   We’ve seen it in the recent past.

Orientation of the block would have to change pretty dramatically to set up a semi-perma ridge over the east that links up with the NAO block. 

We get the eastern ridge temporarily as the block is just starting to set up shop, but it quickly goes away because that block is oriented from like Iceland back into Davis strait which isn’t the way to blow up an eastern ridge. It forces PV lobes underneath when it’s oriented like that.
 

It’s possible the orientation changes but that’s pretty doubtful considering the consistency and cross-guidance agreement.  

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Orientation of the block would have to change pretty dramatically to set up a semi-perma ridge over the east that links up with the NAO block. 

We get the eastern ridge temporarily as the block is just starting to set up shop, but it quickly goes away because that block is oriented from like Iceland back into Davis strait which isn’t the way to blow up an eastern ridge. It forces PV lobes underneath when it’s oriented like that.
 

It’s possible the orientation changes but that’s pretty doubtful considering the consistency and cross-guidance agreement.  

The 18z op run was pretty wintry.   I understand what you’re saying Will.  But the orientation is exactly what we have to keep our eye on to ensure it holds.  Right now things look good.

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27 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Earth lite is fine . Just that Webb doesn’t know wx 

Weenies root snow on even in bad patterns. Like you 

I think you should judge the content of the post in and of itself, rather than allowing your opinion of the poster to bias how you perceive the information presented.

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It’s unlikely the NAO domain space collapses and merges in that way in late autumn early winter. That type of behavior is a spring phenomenon, as/when the wave lengths abruptly  transition through the seasonal shortening - support washes out and the residual mass field settles south. April etc it can lend to one of those early 85/19 type T/DP red flag patterns.  

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17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Game is on in my eyes....nothing more to say right now. Just a game of "think of as many ways it could go wrong as possible", as some sort of deranged defense mechanism.

Low blow man.  We know each other long enough for you to know my motives.   My original premise was that there were some hints.  But I was pretty clear that things looked pretty good.

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14 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Low blow man.  We know each other long enough for you to know my motives.   My original premise was that there were some hints.  But I was pretty clear that things looked pretty good.

He gets rose colored glasses often times and caught up in verification of outlook. We hear for you Jer . Let’s see how things play out 

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1 hour ago, bristolri_wx said:

Fixed that for you.

This is the best time of year , when the models start to show something promising during winter , but it’s far enough off in the distance that emotions start running wild for some , then others lose patience , thank goodness we have resident psychologist Tip. If he had a script pad I wonder what he would be dolling out . 

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7 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

There’s a pretty reasonable chance we don’t get any snow events through 12/13. That’s like a week (maybe not even) into the pattern change. 

17 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

the key take away is Will and Scott alluded they buying beers If there is not a a winter weather advisory in effect by the 12’th of December . Big cheers to them .

Hmmmm, is that what we got out of today’s posts? Hard to keep track ;).

Everything looks good, it’ll be a painful waiting game for some.  

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My only point was…and Will backed it up,  was that what QgOmega was talking about was a low probability.  
 

Sure Jerry, it could happen, but the chances are low currently, and that was my point, that he is a Troll…he always down plays and trolls everything.  

And If you want to input that possibility, there is a way to do it without making everybody else look like they’re wish-casting, which is what he was insinuating.  

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13 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

This is the best time of year , when the models start to show something promising during winter , but it’s far enough off in the distance that emotions start running wild for some , then others lose patience , thank goodness we have resident psychologist Tip. If he had a script pad I wonder what he would be dolling out . 

By the end of the week, if ensembles shift even a little bit, we will get the first post saying “the pattern change always ends up being 10 more days away, I knew this would happen”. 

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

By the end of the week, if ensembles shift even a little bit, we will get the first post saying “the pattern change always ends up being 10 more days away, I knew this would happen”. 

It’s almost unbearable cuz some just can’t understand what any of this means…just plain sad! But to hell with them.
 

It’s game on(with regard to the pattern) no matter what QgOmega or any other troll says. And if it collapses into a dry cold dust bowl into the Midwest like Omega thinks, then I’ll be the first to congratulate him.

 

 

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