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Winter 2022/23 Lake Effect Snow Thread


Chicago Storm
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Thanks for starting this thread. 

They ( w.NY )are about to get a nice boost from lake MI as these bands look to make a run across the whole state. 

Been snowing at a very decent pace the past hour or so with a nice band extending from here back towards the lake. Roads etc all snow covered now. 

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1 minute ago, IWXwx said:

The NFL is ruining the excitement by moving the Bills game to Detroit.  They may not have had a lot fans in the stands, but the ratings would have been crazy. Of course, all of that was based on the Browns making it there.

I guess Buffalo can't handle some snow.  :ee:

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2 hours ago, Harry said:

Latest aviation from GRR said there was some lightening with the stuff towards i96 to the north of here. 

Not too surprised.  I didn’t hear or see anything but that band was intense for 45 minutes before it shifted more to the south.  Hopefully the Saturday event will be more solid coverage.  The monster sized flakes today were cool, but it hasn’t been persistent and its a little sloppy and heavy compared to a normal LES event.  Its not super dense, but its not that really light 20:1 ratio we sometimes get either.  More like 12:1.  The next one is supposed to be colder.

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1 minute ago, frostfern said:

Not too surprised.  I didn’t hear or see anything but that band was intense for 45 minutes before it shifted more to the south.  Hopefully the Saturday event will be more solid coverage.  The monster sized flakes today were cool, but it hasn’t been persistent and its a little sloppy and heavy compared to a normal LES event.  Its not super dense, but its not that really light 20:1 ratio we sometimes get either.  More like 12:1.  The next one is supposed to be colder.

 

Living life on the edge here but thankfully on the good side with the persistent band that's been rolling along between i94 up towards the county line. If that can hang around most of the night should do very well here. Hopefully it spreads out some for you guys.. 

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Just now, Harry said:

 

Living life on the edge here but thankfully on the good side with the persistent band that's been rolling along between i94 up towards the county line. If that can hang around most of the night should do very well here. Hopefully it spreads out some for you guys.. 

So far it looks like the surface winds are actually cooperating in more or less a due westerly flow. Marshall may finally do ok. 

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56 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

And it begins...

KBUF 180154Z 26003KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV004 M01/M02 A2997 RMK AO2 LTG DSNT SW AND W SLP157 SNINCR 3/3 P0002 T10111017 RVRNO $

6.0" in the last 2 hours at BUF.

KBUF 180254Z 00000KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M01/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 TSB04E23 SLP153 TS DSIPTD SNINCR 3/6 P0000 60002 T10111011 58008 RVRNO $

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6 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

6.0" in the last 2 hours at BUF.

KBUF 180254Z 00000KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M01/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 TSB04E23 SLP153 TS DSIPTD SNINCR 3/6 P0000 60002 T10111011 58008 RVRNO $

Curious to see what the max rates will be.  Is that about it or could it go higher?  I haven't looked into that (and besides, the locals may know better).

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16 minutes ago, RogueWaves said:

So far it looks like the surface winds are actually cooperating in more or less a due westerly flow. Marshall may finally do ok. 

 

Yeah if we can keep this going all night I think we could see warning criteria amounts almost to Jackson. Rare air for sure. See what happens once the flow settles into the wnw direction in a little bit. I think the cellular look to some of it could have to do with the low level flow wsw to sw while above it has become westerly. Plus the patches of drier air. a bit better moisture  should be heading over the lake shortly. So between all of that coming together in a little while it should fan out a bit more and intensify. We'll see anyways. 

Ofcourse later tomorrow/tomorrow night the flow should start backing again towards the wsw and even sw ahead of the next impulse on Saturday and then back to wnw/me later Saturday into Saturday night which should light it up again. 

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1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

The NFL is ruining the excitement by moving the Bills game to Detroit.  They may not have had a lot fans in the stands, but the ratings would have been crazy. Of course, all of that was based on the Browns making it there.

That's unfortunate lol.

The red square is where the stadium is located.  When that band settles a bit further south they will get buried.

 

dgdg.jpg

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19 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

6.0" in the last 2 hours at BUF.

KBUF 180254Z 00000KT 1/4SM +SN FZFG VV003 M01/M01 A2996 RMK AO2 TSB04E23 SLP153 TS DSIPTD SNINCR 3/6 P0000 60002 T10111011 58008 RVRNO $

 

Too bad we cannot add another 100 miles east to west across our lake. :D

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3 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

Yeah if we can keep this going all night I think we could see warning criteria amounts almost to Jackson. Rare air for sure. See what happens once the flow settles into the wnw direction in a little bit. I think the cellular look to some of it could have to do with the low level flow wsw to sw while above it has become westerly. Plus the patches of drier air. a bit better moisture  should be heading over the lake shortly. So between all of that coming together in a little while it should fan out a bit more and intensify. We'll see anyways. 

Ofcourse later tomorrow/tomorrow night the flow should start backing again towards the wsw and even sw ahead of the next impulse on Saturday and then back to wnw/me later Saturday into Saturday night which should light it up again. 

We have had more graupel/pellets than actual flakes at times.  Still slowly adding up but certainly not a good way to run a winter storm warning level of snow.

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Just now, WestMichigan said:

We have had more graupel/pellets than actual flakes at times.  Still slowly adding up but certainly not a good way to run a winter storm warning level of snow.

 

Thus the problem with les especially with these types of bands and cellular stuff. Huge cut offs. Right now between either side ( to i94 on the southern end.. And to about i96 on northern end)  of and including Allegan and Berry looking to be ground zero. So far anyways. See what happens once the wnw flow settles in and we get a better moisture supply again along with colder air. 

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My area did ok overnight. Picked up about 3-1/2” maybe 4”. Had about 2” yesterday so overall not too bad. Allegan county looks to have the most based on radar. Interesting to see what some of the totals are this morning. In the end the NWS will probably be correct for my area with their initial range, just not as impressive as you would think because of the long duration the event. Lots of time with little or.no snow in the air. 

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1 hour ago, WestMichigan said:

My area did ok overnight. Picked up about 3-1/2” maybe 4”. Had about 2” yesterday so overall not too bad. Allegan county looks to have the most based on radar. Interesting to see what some of the totals are this morning. In the end the NWS will probably be correct for my area with their initial range, just not as impressive as you would think because of the long duration the event. Lots of time with little or.no snow in the air. 

Just saw 7.6 inches at midnight at GRR.  Seems like the winds were a little too strong today and pushed the snow more inland.  Someone is going to have some impressive totals in West Michigan out of this and that is small amounts compared to Northern Lower Michigan or Western New York.

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Was a bit surprised to see how far south the lake effect bands drifted into Indiana this morning. It was snowing at a pretty good clip when I let the dogs out. I forgot my tape measure, but I’d eyeball about 6 on the ground right now…about 3 of that is fresh snow from overnight/this morning.

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