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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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On 2/3/2023 at 8:17 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Yeah it is, 14 degrees now. The wind really cuts right through you, especially when our bodies are more accustomed to 30s and 40s. I happened to wake up right around 2:30am and catch the front coming through and the snow falling, could really hear the wind howling. Probably picked up a quarter inch or so but looked wintry at least for awhile. Now see who / if anyone gets lucky enough to maybe get under a lake band and pick up some extra snow. Looks like we will have a Huron connection for awhile, but other variables not favorable for better coverage.

This cold snap is so quick though, midnight high today, and making it back close to 30 tomorrow it will largely be lost in the history books outside of overnight lows.

Outside of that, the next 7 days looks pretty uneventful, maybe another cool / cold shot past that. Pattern looks pretty meh for any sustained winter. Still a solid 6 weeks to cash in on something. 

Especially considering the temp somehow managed to jump to thirty-#%$&ing-nine at PIT before midnight. Probably the most pathetic looking cold snap on record for our area by a long shot.

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10 hours ago, north pgh said:

GFS and Canadian are starting to come around to something possibly next Saturday. 

All 3 00z runs had some sort of secondary wave develop for the weekend. Highly timing dependant for where it tracks. 06z GFS for example gets it going to late / North. 

It's our best shot at something, need it to track close enough behind the initial storm during the week while heights are suppressed in the east, but not amplify to soon / late since we aren't getting any help. Really the proverbial thread the needle setup.

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19 hours ago, Burghblizz said:

Such a boring sports weekend too…bad timing to have no real threats to track.

I have to admit one of the best parts of tracking is when we are all collectively tracking together and the storm starts trending better as we close in. I'm on the edge of my seat refreshing the model pages as excitement builds and you can't keep up with the new posts. That and when a storm hits and we are all posting obs of heavy snow etc. Really missing one of those right now.

Still looks like maybe a shot at some wintry weather this weekend, better than 50s and rain I guess.

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Idk how but this next wave is gonna get squashed south. Pretty incredible since most storms have trended into cutters. Also looks like by the end of Febuary we switch to possible winter. I'm betting we get our biggest snowstorm somewhere between March 5-9 since I'll be in Texas then. Book it 

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On 2/5/2023 at 12:06 PM, north pgh said:

Heck with all this rain showing up on the models it might be a good time to plant some grass.:flood:

I made that mistake last year right as the snow was melting and then we got two weeks of below 50F weather.  I can't tell how people are supposed to seed their lawns here.  Does everyone just buy sod?  LOL

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Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1121 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-031-073>076-WVZ001>004-012-021-
509>514-090100-
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WI.Y.0002.230209T1600Z-230210T1200Z/
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Higher
Elevations of Westmoreland-Fayette-Higher Elevations of Fayette-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-Ridges of
Eastern Monongalia and Northwestern Preston-Preston-Eastern
Preston-Western Tucker-Eastern Tucker-
Including the cities of Wheeling, Oil City, Bruceton Mills,
Greensburg, Kittanning, Latrobe, Canonsburg, Uniontown,
Punxsutawney, Davis, Washington, Donegal, Ohiopyle, New Castle,
Pittsburgh Metro Area, Beaver Falls, New Martinsville, Monessen,
Clarion, Champion, Franklin, Saint George, Indiana, Wellsburg,
Moundsville, Kingwood, Brookville, Weirton, Follansbee, Hazelton,
Monaca, Tionesta, Ambridge, Canaan Valley, Thomas, Hendricks,
Butler, Ligonier, Hermitage, Rowlesburg, Coopers Rock, Ellwood
City, Lower Burrell, Sharon, Aliquippa, Morgantown, Terra Alta,
Grove City, Parsons, Ford City, Fairmont, Waynesburg, New
Kensington, and Murrysville
1121 AM EST Wed Feb 8 2023

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THURSDAY TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest, and western
  Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 11 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

CJM

 

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Didn't mention it to my wife or anyone so as to not jinx all of us but I heard birds singing during that far above average run at the end of January.  Early in the day too.  I said to myself that it sounded like Spring and it was then that I knew our winter was in its last gasps.

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1 minute ago, TimB said:

1952-1996: 0

1997-2016: 5

2017-2023: 4

This is a good comparison.  I honestly don't understand why we trust the precision or accuracy of measurements before 1940~1950.  Instrumentation was rudimentary and nowhere near up to the specs or requirements we have for present-day.  Official temperature readings are to be 2m off the ground, out of the sunlight, away from obstructions, and more.  Downtown Pittsburgh was already sweltering because of industry during the early records, bias is everywhere, pointing at pre-1950 data is disingenuous at best.

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Just now, donyewest said:

This is a good comparison.  I honestly don't understand why we trust the precision or accuracy of measurements before 1940~1950.  Instrumentation was rudimentary and nowhere near up to the specs or requirements we have for present-day.  Official temperature readings are to be 2m off the ground, out of the sunlight, away from obstructions, and more.  Downtown Pittsburgh was already sweltering because of industry during the early records, bias is everywhere, pointing at pre-1950 data is disingenuous at best.

I’d say there are 3 days that would have definitely been 70 at the current location in the older era: the 77 on 2/8/1900, the 76 on 2/16/1883, and the 75 on 2/11/1932. The rest are iffy - a couple of 72’s and the rest 70.

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