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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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1 hour ago, TimB said:

Even when it’s over we’ll still have a permanent southeast ridge. That feature is set in stone for decades.

Yeah, I don’t think that’s true.  Maybe just check out for this winter and come back ready for next year.  I mean if it’s so permanent why have we had recent good winters?

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Yeah, I don’t think that’s true.  Maybe just check out for this winter and come back ready for next year.  I mean if it’s so permanent why have we had recent good winters?

I’ll believe it when it goes away for more than 4 days.

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22 minutes ago, north pgh said:

Yes looking forward to it.

Maybe some surprises in some localized areas. Idk who remembers the one year in November we had some lake effect squalls and some areas got like 5 or 6 inches because of some heavy bands. Should be a nice a winter day regardless.

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3 minutes ago, TimB said:

Euro seems to give us our chances. A couple inches today, a minor system mid next week, and some weird looking system at the end of its run. 

Yeah I saw that, first time I haven't looked at the 0z models at night. Went to sleep at 1030 and didn't bother to look when we had an accident at 2. Looks like we may get a small dose of winter and might even get a decent event. 

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5 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Yeah I saw that, first time I haven't looked at the 0z models at night. Went to sleep at 1030 and didn't bother to look when we had an accident at 2. Looks like we may get a small dose of winter and might even get a decent event. 

Hard to take the later one seriously, it’s 9 days away and has positive 500 height anomalies up against well below normal temperatures, so it has mixing in areas with single digit temps.

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10 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Honestly, the real surprise is that Lake Erie (and even Michigan) aren't frozen over enough at this point.  Lake effect usually shuts off through winter because Erie gets too cold to produce lake effect snow bands.

Is it shocking?  January has been over 8 degrees above average region wide.  Aside from the bitter air around Christmas, which probably caused a bit of ice, it hasn't been sustained enough, I would think.

 

Also, looks like the short range models are underdoing the snow on radar today.  Maybe we'll get something to write home about today.

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11 minutes ago, TimB said:

Whole thing has been pretty meh today, despite the lake being wide open. We just can’t get the right parameters for anything to perform this winter.

I wasn't expecting much it was nice to just get a wintry feeling day. At my house I got a little under an inch. On to next week

 

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8 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

I wasn't expecting much it was nice to just get a wintry feeling day. At my house I got a little under an inch. On to next week

 

Seems elevation dependent. 
A light grass covering on Washington Rd in Mt Lebanon, but down the road a bit there’s barely anything even on the grass.   

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1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Seems elevation dependent. 
A light grass covering on Washington Rd in Mt Lebanon, but down the road a bit there’s barely anything even on the grass.   

It was nice to see snow falling all day for sure. Inability to drop below freezing despite 18 hours of NW flow on January 26th deflated my enthusiasm some and definitely took away from what would have otherwise been a bread and butter winter day.

Getting some steady light snow now though and ground whitening up finally so take what you can get this year.:snowwindow:

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6 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Storms actually south of us for a change on the GFS. Cmc more amped and actually gives a decent event. We track

Looks like GFS and CMC are keying in on slightly different waves or just timing differences but yeah probably not a big storm but I'd love to get a solid 2-4 / 3-6 type event without temperatures issues. It's all about timing of the short waves / strength combined with that PV lobe placement, I'd expect significant changes one way or another over the next few days one way or the other. Given the way this winter has gone especially I'd rather be looking for it to come North than praying nothing changes over the next 5-6 days.

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Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim. 

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim. 

IMHO another cause is the rare January torch affecting so many. 
The past 15 years have had December and February torch’s, but usually January had been pretty dependable as a winter month. 

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3 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Slowly but surely I'm seeing people give up on winter in other regions/forums after this next period. This may just be the year where it just doesn't snow. Obviously we are better off since we don't live near the coast but the long range looks pretty grim. 

It's just one of those years.  I think people have attempted to over-explain this or over-attribute it to other things, but even places north of us have been getting shafted on the snow.  New England included.  Meanwhile, it's snowing plenty out west.

The pendulum will swing the other way at some point.  Maybe not next year but that's not something to predict, really.

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