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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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Forget which model but one got it spot on yesterday with this SW-NE band setup overtop of me for the past hour or two.  The model had me in the vicinity of ~5" and we're at 3" right now.  It appears this may keep going for a bit longer so might just get closer to that 4~5" mark.

Heavy wet snow too, I'm slipping all over the driveway.  The single salt truck they sent out here was not enough, our road (a tertiary right off a secondary split from the primary state route) hasn't been touched since the end of the Bengals game.  I can see people trying to make it up the steep secondary road through the trees, slow going around here for sure.

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8 minutes ago, donyewest said:

Forget which model but one got it spot on yesterday with this SW-NE band setup overtop of me for the past hour or two.  The model had me in the vicinity of ~5" and we're at 3" right now.  It appears this may keep going for a bit longer so might just get closer to that 4~5" mark.

Heavy wet snow too, I'm slipping all over the driveway.  The single salt truck they sent out here was not enough, our road (a tertiary right off a secondary split from the primary state route) hasn't been touched since the end of the Bengals game.  I can see people trying to make it up the steep secondary road through the trees, slow going around here for sure.

Glad people in our area are finally enjoying some winter weather. Hopefully it's the rest of the sub forums turn next. One final gfs map before bed.

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38 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

NAM alittle over 4 inches and then dry slot? Looks like a little more just north but who knows what's gonna happen with this type of set up. I'm just excited we may actually see some legit heavy snow and not just a squall.

Let’s hope the Canadians are wrong. Not liking anything the op or the RGEM or the ensemble are spitting out.

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2 minutes ago, TimB said:

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The verbiage in the previous forecast for Allegheny was “Snow accumulation possible.” Now it’s “Little or no snow accumulation.” Can’t be good.

We don't usually win in these scenarios so I'd temper expectations and anything that falls is a win. 

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18 minutes ago, CoraopolisWx said:

IIRC with past similar storms, the NAM at this range joins the CMC with a stronger WAA push.

So far it has stayed steady with a more muted push, tonights 0z run will be interesting.

That's what's confusing me is the NAM usually is the one super amped and warm. Hopefully the Euro holds serve here at 12z.

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It's still early but I like the way things are looking up for Wednesday. I think we all know that we are going to rain or dry slot Wed afternoon but the GFS and Canadian are trending to maybe 4 hours or so of moderate to heavy snow at the onset Wed morning until noon or shortly thereafter. We could be looking at a 3-4 inch scenario with a quick dump in the am which I would take at this point. Like Tim said if we can move it a little more southeast then the changeover slows and we get more snow. 

I think NWS is taking the right measures with 1 minimum and 4 maximum at this point. As bad as this winter has been thus far I think we would all be happy with a surprise. 

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Ended up with about a half inch that all mostly fell between 3am and 9am. Never made it below freezing and it's all melted now. Can see on some higher hills nearby not much higher in elevation made a difference. Rained all day yesterday, my location sucks in these marginal setups and is equally pretty bad in the type of setup we will have Wed.

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1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

IIRC with past similar storms, the NAM at this range joins the CMC with a stronger WAA push.

So far it has stayed steady with a more muted push, tonights 0z run will be interesting.

Anything like this the short range hi res models should out perform when it comes to getting the temp profile nailed down. 3k NAM seems to do well, but we all know typically the change over happens quicker.

If your expectation is a quick  1-2 with a period of moderate snow that's probably a reasonable bet, then adjust as we get closer.

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