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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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On 1/8/2023 at 9:34 AM, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Looks like that trend has continued. I'm actually rooting it just stays dry at this point. Personally I have no use for a slop slush dusting that melts by 9am anyways.

Well, got my wish, woke up to dry bare ground. Not complaining though, maybe it's the start of a hot streak. Next I'll try my wish hand at a Blizzard of 93 redux and mega millions jackpot. Sad thing is I'm not sure which has lower odds.:lol:

Next "storm" continues to evolve with some ENS members hinting there is a path to some snow on the backend of the secondary. Nothing else weatherwise to follow but day 10+ pattern changes. Could end up being something more interesting than a straight up rain storm though.

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@TheClimateChanger

You’re usually my go-to for local climate record stuff so I’ll ask you. I’ve always assumed the January 1880 data (+15.7 temp departure relative to current normals with zero measurable snow, both all time records) was fake but I’m starting to reconsider that now that I see places like Columbus and Cincinnati were in a similar ballpark for temp departures. Is there a chance it could be real?

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19 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

Hmm interestingly enough the long range data is starting to show a return of colder air. Get the cold air established and then we can start tracking again. Maybe we can still salvage a 3-4 week period of tracking.

Right now the period around the 20th or so should offer some better chances. PAC fire hose slows down with that low finally shifting to the Aleutians and a -EPO / +PNA ridge popping. I'm skeptical right now on how long it lasts though. Early December the "pattern change" that really ended up only being a 5-7 day cold snap looked similar to what we are seeing now in the mid / long range. 

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1 hour ago, Rd9108 said:

Might as well give up on this winter. All the guidance is now starting to return the Pacific fire hose. Let's see what happens when we hit this "favorable" period.

There seems to be too much conflicting information.  I see on other forums a good period coming end of month, then more warmth, but also professionals on twitter suggesting a PV split and massive cold that can flow from ultra cold Siberia.  I just think we don't have any real clue what will happen.  I think it's safe to say though, that this season will end below average snow wise.

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21 hours ago, Rd9108 said:

I mean eventually one of these storms won't cut right. These storms can't cut west of us forever.

The upcoming pattern looks very gradient like. There is a chance we get on the right side of a couple storms riding along that depending on wave spacing / SE ridge strength. I'd feel better for more dice rolls the further North and West you go.

To many other variables to say much past that but hopefully we can get something. Longer range would lean towards SE Ridge really building into Feb.

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