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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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10 hours ago, Ahoff said:

Hopefully, we can get below 0.  Would be the first time in December since, what 1989?

It will be tough to do, but we’ll be getting close.

1989 is correct. Closest we’ve come since then is a low of 0 on 12/31/17. I think there was also a day in 2004 with a low of 0. I’m wondering honestly if our best shot is midday tomorrow immediately behind the front.

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Definitely less moisture behind the front on the morning models. We'll see but the problem is there's really only a 1-2 hr window for snow now and not as much moisture in that window either.  It does seem the precip type panels are underestimating how quickly the changeover will take place, but this kinda ends up as a wash due to melting at those temps. I think .1" QPF is a pretty reasonable bet. Which we can't assume will be much more than 10:1 ratios. The HRRR does seem to have some banding features which may yield some more localized totals. For that reason I would go with .5-1.5" with localized 2"+

qpf_001h.us_ma.png

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11 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Dropped us to under an inch, lol.  I don't think it gets to even 1 degree, which is their forecast without more snow on the ground, and if it does, I couldn't imagine how cold it would have been with a couple inches.

Every model I'm seeing has us at around 1.5 inches on average. I bet we get an inch but it gets blown around. I guess we shall see. 

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Winter Weather Advisory

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WINTER STORM TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING COLD....STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND WINTER PRECIPITATION...

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-
230015-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.W.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0020.221223T0600Z-221223T1800Z/
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Brookville, Monessen, Sharon, Uniontown,
Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ford City, Punxsutawney, Grove City,
Ellwood City, Clarion, Washington, Oil City, Wheeling,
Murrysville, Hermitage, Aliquippa, Follansbee, Lower Burrell,
Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Kittanning, Wellsburg, Fairmont, Weirton,
New Martinsville, Butler, Waynesburg, Morgantown, New Castle,
Latrobe, Monaca, Franklin, New Kensington, Tionesta, Greensburg,
Moundsville, and Canonsburg
1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations up to two inches, with flash freeze conditions
  possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill
  Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low
  as 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest, and western
  Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 1 AM to 1 PM EST
  Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 AM Friday to Noon EST
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold
  wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as
  30 minutes. Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$
Wind Chill Warning

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WINTER STORM TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING COLD....STRONG TO DAMAGING
WINDS...AND WINTER PRECIPITATION...

PAZ007>009-013>016-020>022-029-031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-
230015-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.WC.A.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1800Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WC.W.0001.221223T1100Z-221224T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WW.Y.0020.221223T0600Z-221223T1800Z/
Mercer-Venango-Forest-Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-
Allegheny-Armstrong-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-
Hancock-Brooke-Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Brookville, Monessen, Sharon, Uniontown,
Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ford City, Punxsutawney, Grove City,
Ellwood City, Clarion, Washington, Oil City, Wheeling,
Murrysville, Hermitage, Aliquippa, Follansbee, Lower Burrell,
Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Kittanning, Wellsburg, Fairmont, Weirton,
New Martinsville, Butler, Waynesburg, Morgantown, New Castle,
Latrobe, Monaca, Franklin, New Kensington, Tionesta, Greensburg,
Moundsville, and Canonsburg
1101 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY...
...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM FRIDAY TO NOON EST
SATURDAY...

* WHAT...For the Winter Weather Advisory, snow expected. Total snow
  accumulations up to two inches, with flash freeze conditions
  possible. Winds gusting as high as 50 mph. For the Wind Chill
  Warning, dangerously cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low
  as 25 below zero.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest, southwest, and western
  Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the northern panhandle of
  West Virginia.

* WHEN...For the Winter Weather Advisory, from 1 AM to 1 PM EST
  Friday. For the Wind Chill Warning, from 6 AM Friday to Noon EST
  Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the Friday morning and evening commutes.
  Gusty winds could bring down tree branches. The dangerously cold
  wind chills could cause frostbite on exposed skin in as little as
  30 minutes. Roads, and especially bridges and overpasses, will
  likely become slick and hazardous.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Avoid outside activities if possible. When outside, make sure you
wear appropriate clothing, a hat, and gloves.

Keep pets indoors as much as possible.

Be prepared for slippery roads. Slow down and use caution while
driving. If you are going outside, watch your first few steps taken
on stairs, sidewalks, and driveways. These surfaces could be icy and
slippery, increasing your risk of a fall and injury.

&&

$$

 

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Wind Advisory

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1104 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

OHZ039>041-048>050-057>059-068-069-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-029-
031-073-075-WVZ001>004-012-021-509-230015-
/O.UPG.KPBZ.HW.A.0001.221223T0800Z-221224T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KPBZ.WI.Y.0012.221223T0600Z-221224T1200Z/
Tuscarawas-Carroll-Columbiana-Coshocton-Harrison-Jefferson OH-
Muskingum-Guernsey-Belmont-Noble-Monroe-Mercer-Venango-Forest-
Lawrence-Butler-Clarion-Jefferson PA-Beaver-Allegheny-Armstrong-
Indiana-Washington-Greene-Westmoreland-Fayette-Hancock-Brooke-
Ohio-Marshall-Wetzel-Marion-Monongalia-
Including the cities of Brookville, Monessen, New Philadelphia,
Columbiana, Malvern, Zanesville, Sharon, East Liverpool,
Uniontown, Woodsfield, Punxsutawney, Grove City, Salem,
Pittsburgh Metro Area, Ford City, Ellwood City, Clarion,
Washington, Oil City, Wheeling, Murrysville, Hermitage,
Aliquippa, Follansbee, Lower Burrell, Dover, Coshocton, Cadiz,
Beaver Falls, Ambridge, Kittanning, Cambridge, Wellsburg,
Fairmont, Weirton, St. Clairsville, New Martinsville, Caldwell,
Butler, Waynesburg, Morgantown, Carrollton, New Castle, Martins
Ferry, Indiana, Latrobe, Steubenville, Monaca, Franklin, New
Kensington, Tionesta, Greensburg, Moundsville, and Canonsburg
1104 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST SATURDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...Portions of east central Ohio. Portions of northwest,
  southwest, and western Pennsylvania. Portions of northern and the
  northern panhandle of West Virginia.

* WHEN...From 1 AM Friday to 7 AM EST Saturday.

* IMPACTS...Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. Tree
  limbs could be blown down and a few power outages may result.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Winds this strong can make driving difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles. Use extra caution.

&&

$$

SH/FM/EB

 

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43 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Also, HRRR seems aggressive with temps.  -6 (a record low) by tomorrow night, and dipping to -7 Christmas Eve (not a record).  With so little snow, I doubt that.

HRRR likes to do that. Watch for that to moderate on subsequent runs. But it has stuck around for several of its long range runs now, so who knows?

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Wouldn't there be upslope snows?  I mean whether the winds come from the southwest or northwest it should run into higher terrain.

Maybe in the very higher elevations, but not really for us in the low lands. That air is bone dry continental Arctic air. The lakes add a source of moisture when we get NW go flow but also moderate the air mass, so colder temperatures than one might expect are possible despite the lack of snow cover.

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1 hour ago, CoraopolisWx said:

Unfortunately, these vorts tend to not dig into the TN Valley as much as we would like. 

Too bad, because the phasing with that coastal energy would have been epic.

I kept waiting to see a phase, it was close a few times but just didn't have a deep enough trough to scoop it up. No doubt that would have been an even more prolific synoptic snow maker. 

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1 hour ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

Maybe in the very higher elevations, but not really for us in the low lands. That air is bone dry continental Arctic air. The lakes add a source of moisture when we get NW go flow but also moderate the air mass, so colder temperatures than one might expect are possible despite the lack of snow cover.

So you would say these subzero afternoon/evening temps the coldest models are suggesting aren’t out of the question?

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