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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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5 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

Any thoughts on travel Friday afternoon/early evening? Seems temps will be in the low 20s at that time, although the timing of the front is still TBD. At what temp would you expect roads to freeze solid? 

12z guidance so far seems to be showing that we’ve crashed into the low teens or single digits by that timeframe.

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4 minutes ago, TimB said:

12z guidance so far seems to be showing that we’ve crashed into the low teens or single digits by that timeframe.

Important to note, though, that the ensembles 10th/90th percentiles for 18z Friday still show an absolutely massive range. On the CMC ensemble, these numbers are 4 and 57 degrees.

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1 hour ago, TimB said:

Am I the only one who isn’t all that impressed with the magnitude of the cold even behind the frontal passage? With the lack of snow cover, NWS is already going high on temps for the holiday weekend. Highs in the upper teens and lows in the upper single digits. Meh. We got cold of that magnitude pretty much every winter up until the last few winters when it became nearly impossible to get a high below 20.

Probably, because snow will be minimal.  If we had a good pack you could probably knock those temps down a few degrees.  It is still pretty tough to get temps that cold here in December, though, so...it's something.

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4 minutes ago, TimB said:

Important to note, though, that the ensembles 10th/90th percentiles for 18z Friday still show an absolutely massive range. On the CMC ensemble, these numbers are 4 and 57 degrees.

Yeah it's kinda wild. Yesterday evening the GFS had the cold front not even arriving until late afternoon/evening. Now it's showing the cold entrenched and snow almost over by dinner time. 

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11 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

Yeah it's kinda wild. Yesterday evening the GFS had the cold front not even arriving until late afternoon/evening. Now it's showing the cold entrenched and snow almost over by dinner time. 

GEFS is now almost certain that the front comes through in the morning. The spread at 12z is 11/54, spread at 18z is 2/18. Would like to believe for practical, non weather weenie purposes that it’s probably better if this happens earlier in the day.

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Not all cutters are created equal - I don’t think this is about willing it to the east.

It’s more about intensity and timing. West could be best.

We could have crashing temps with SW winds because of how wound up this is.

Meanwhile, places just east of the track (including as far north as Ontario are raining). Different evolution, but our biggest storm ever (11.1950) did something similar. That’s why I think we have a better than normal chance of having more precip when the cold air gets there. 

The GFS then wants to retrograde it and prolong the snows. That’s what it basically gives us a foot.

So no, it isn’t likely. And no it’s not Nov 1950. But I wouldn’t punt yet just because it cuts. 

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1 minute ago, TimB said:

GEFS is now almost certain that the front comes through in the morning. The spread at 12z is 11/54, spread at 18z is 2/18.

Ugh, thank you. Now it's just a matter of figuring out if it's a terrible idea to tackle frozen roads with AWD. It's going to be mostly highway, (RT19/I-79) which might be okay, depending on a number of factors.

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19 minutes ago, Burghblizz said:

Not all cutters are created equal - I don’t think this is about willing it to the east.

It’s more about intensity and timing. West could be best.

We could have crashing temps with SW winds because of how wound up this is.

Meanwhile, places just east of the track (including as far north as Ontario are raining). Different evolution, but our biggest storm ever (11.1950) did something similar. That’s why I think we have a better than normal chance of having more precip when the cold air gets there. 

The GFS then wants to retrograde it and prolong the snows. That’s what it basically gives us a foot.

So no, it isn’t likely. And no it’s not Nov 1950. But I wouldn’t punt yet just because it cuts. 

Yeah, as long as we can keep that mid level moisture wrapping behind, the existing energy could produce some decent fluff with the crashing temps. 

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Just now, windycutter said:

New here!  Weather enthusiast!  By the looks of the current set up, the tightly packed isobar lines, will more than likely deliver quite a wind storm (regardless of precip types).  I would imagine that the winds will be just as notable.

Welcome! Your name seems appropriate for this week.

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3 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Lol so 2 inches instead of .5. Still time to get a favorable trend. Obviously any hope of 4+ is gone.

That at least allows for a white Christmas.  Moreover, snowfall amounts vary depending on model.  Plus, cannot takes things at this point verbatim.

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