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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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42 minutes ago, TimB said:

I like the “maybe it’ll shift back east” mentality better than the 1/19/19 “we may have lost the storm but at least we’ll get a couple inches on the back end with the Arctic front” mentality.

Not sure the east shift is something we should count on, but getting some snow on the back end that the grass is still poking through is hardly a silver lining.

Edit: Euro has barely any precip on the back end after the changeover. Maybe an inch. That’s probably the most likely scenario, not an advisory level amount.

GFS still has 3-6" back end.  Why don't we wait.  it's still 5 days, not 2 away.

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10 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

GFS still has 3-6" back end.  Why don't we wait.  it's still 5 days, not 2 away.

Ehh this one is over. It's more so 3 days away for the actual storm to form. Honestly I said I'd be fine with a few inches and I stick to it. I just hate seeing massive cutters.

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58 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Ehh this one is over. It's more so 3 days away for the actual storm to form. Honestly I said I'd be fine with a few inches and I stick to it. I just hate seeing massive cutters.

It's 5 days before it affects us.  Models are not infallible which is clear with the inconsistency they've shown.  Believe me I never for a second bought the 30" from the GFS and that's not what I am suggesting in possible moves back east, but to just say only 1" maybe is not certain at all at this time.  I'm good with a few inches too, and that looks possible.

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44 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

It's 5 days before it affects us.  Models are not infallible which is clear with the inconsistency they've shown.  Believe me I never for a second bought the 30" from the GFS and that's not what I am suggesting in possible moves back east, but to just say only 1" maybe is not certain at all at this time.  I'm good with a few inches too, and that looks possible.

Yeah, with so many moving parts, still in play for anything. 
The ENS means are still pretty solid last time I checked. 
Kinda interesting with all the separate pieces of energy. 

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28 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Well just watched the latest Bernie video and he fully believes the models are most likely too far west and will move east somewhat. As of now he has us in his thinking for heavy snow. Hopefully we see some improvements starting at the latest tomorrow. 

It really doesn’t take a lot for us to win out.  The coast is not getting it like they thought.  We have a chance.

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1 minute ago, TimB said:

When I look at any of these snow depth maps for 12z Christmas morning all I can see is blades of grass poking through the snow and bare spots in any areas that may have gotten any degree of sun on Saturday or where the wind behind the Arctic front drifted the snow.FD904C4E-693B-47F4-9786-62D48455C8EE.jpeg.5266ecfdc53fcad97b16fd34e1a9fd3b.jpegAA359E13-B988-4E09-9F8B-09BFF9CF1E92.jpeg.aed2229a1e7c79a9dd2ede22738b2bd8.jpegC512271D-E95B-4EFB-9060-EBD5E405AC46.jpeg.063be099c9c04ca7ef882ef81f2c8419.jpeg10E89BA1-E194-4D60-9B63-C2104BE1F17A.jpeg.52f5ac9728a7e7801c62e825a6989bf5.jpeg74E57723-313D-4002-A2D2-5443386A0400.jpeg.9040161ab3f6cd7d4e2d0675e5d16fbe.jpeg 

Well, doesn’t mean it’s right.  Keep the faith, it’s Christmas time.

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59 minutes ago, TimB said:

So how long do yinz think the warm spell that’s coming a few days after Christmas is going to last?

As of right now I don't think it's projected to last very long. Low near Alaska should shift West letting -epo re-establish. People much more up on things also think the -Nao will reload and typically strong negative -AOs like we have now bode well for reoccurring throughout winter. That all assumes models aren't breaking the colder look down to fast. Nina Winters seem to swing back and forth, I don't think anyone was saying the cold pattern would lock in until March.

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4 hours ago, Ahoff said:

It really doesn’t take a lot for us to win out.  The coast is not getting it like they thought.  We have a chance.

Yeah I wouldn't give up on this yet. I doubt a full blown snow storm like yesterday's 18z GFS happens but we could still get a progression that's favorable for more than a 1-3 inch type deal we are looking at right now.

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4 minutes ago, RitualOfTheTrout said:

As of right now I don't think it's projected to last very long. Low near Alaska should shift West letting -epo re-establish. People much more up on things also think the -Nao will reload and typically strong negative -AOs like we have now bode well for reoccurring throughout winter. That all assumes models aren't breaking the colder look down to fast. Nina Winters seem to swing back and forth, I don't think anyone was saying the cold pattern would lock in until March.

Well yeah, prevailing wisdom seems to be that February could be ugly so hoping we can have a solid January.

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45 minutes ago, Rd9108 said:

Figured one more post for I go to sleep. Here's the 12z vs 0z. Big jump there. We track

All 00z models look to be slightly better. As is we would have one hell of a flash freeze / abrupt change to snow. Should be some serious wind too, plus the low position in New York state would give a period of lake enhancement as it pulls away. 

Captain obvious but if we get a continued improvement could get even more interesting. I'm all for a clean snow event but a dynamic beast of a storm could still be fun.

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