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Pittsburgh, PA/Western PA Fall/Winter Discussion 2022-23


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13 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

Realistically, what do we think the furthest west the low can go is?  Is Harrisburg about the limit for us for no mixing issues generally.

Depends on the angle it approaches. If it is negatively tilted and backs into eastern pa on a nw trajectory I doubt we’d mix. The Euro shows something similar to this. Gfs is more progressive and further off shore moving ne.

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7 minutes ago, dj3 said:

Depends on the angle it approaches. If it is negatively tilted and backs into eastern pa on a nw trajectory I doubt we’d mix. The Euro shows something similar to this. Gfs is more progressive and further off shore moving ne.

I guess assuming it's on a s to n or ssw to nne trajectory we should be fine.  Flatter would have more uncertainty, but a weaker storm, I'd imagine.  I still wouldn't say no to the Euro solution.

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17 minutes ago, Ahoff said:

I guess assuming it's on a s to n or ssw to nne trajectory we should be fine.  Flatter would have more uncertainty, but a weaker storm, I'd imagine.  I still wouldn't say no to the Euro solution.

Euro Verbatim is pretty good for us. What we don't want is the Euro to show that frontal passage look it was a few days ago.. which the ICON just did lol. 

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3 minutes ago, dj3 said:

I think it is viewed as worse than the other models. GFS looks like its gonna be a beatdown.

Looked like it would be, but the precip shield kind of fell apart on the west side.  Those are issues to be figured out later, but that track seems like it should have done more for us, especially being that strong of a storm.

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1 hour ago, Ahoff said:

Just for fun, as it will obviously change...

Accuweather's point and click puts down 9.4" between Thursday and Friday.  Never saw it that high this far out.

TWC is 3"-7".

Cool with either.

Compare and contrast TWC with the shitty new Apple weather app. One is very obviously leaning on the GFS and the other is very obviously leaning on the cutter/Arctic front solutions.

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7 minutes ago, jwilson said:

At 12Z, looks like the GFS is all alone.  Watch for a waffle at 18Z.  The ensembles matching the OP raise an eyebrow, though.

Everything else shows a consolidated TPV cruising along an arctic front.  Could be Euro's over-amp bias?  Maybe, but it has support from the "weaker" models.

Yeah, it's dangerous territory now.  As long as we get a few inches on that back end it's a win.

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2 hours ago, MikeB_01 said:

I don't think i have ever seen the flag come out this early. 

 

Come on guys. One run of one model. Stay in the game. The fact is that we are 6 days out and have a system in play. Lets watch for a few days

Screen Shot 2022-12-16 at 1.46.32 PM.png

I'm going to throw out some Christmas optimism.. but let's just imagine if say there is an 80/20 split between GFS and the rest of the models by way of having a weaker piece stretch / break-off and get caught under the block but enough to keep it from cutting way west and this beast bombs and crawls just east of the spine of the apps.:pepsi:

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