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Historic Lake Effect Event?! 11/17-11/21


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50 minutes ago, wkd said:

Is a 10:1 ratio as shown on the GFS realistic or in these LES events is it higher?  Also, what is the typical compaction rate? Thanks.

I expect the ratios to be 1:12-1:15 in the beginning and then slowly rise as temperatures drop to 1:15-1:20 ratios. Compaction depends on how much snow falls, the greater the snow depth the more compaction there is. 

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Open Lake Forecast for Lake Erie


National Weather Service Cleveland OH
1023 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022

For waters beyond five nautical miles of shore on Lake Erie

Waves are the significant wave height - the average of the highest
1/3 of the wave spectrum. Occasional wave height is the average of
the highest 1/10 of the wave spectrum.

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough will linger over the Great Lakes through Sunday and
average 29.90 inches over Lake Erie. Within this trough, a cold
front should sweep east across Lake Erie Friday morning and
another cold front should sweep southeast across the lake Saturday
night into Sunday. Behind the second front, a high pressure ridge
averaging 30.00 inches should build from the Upper Midwest later
Sunday through Tuesday.

LEZ061-168-169-172130-
Ripley to Buffalo NY extending from 5NM off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-Geneva-on-the-
Lake to Conneaut OH beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
Conneaut OH to Ripley NY beyond 5 nm off shoreline to US-
Canadian border-
1023 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022

.THIS AFTERNOON...West winds to 30 knots. A chance of rain and
snow showers, then rain and snow showers likely late. Waves 5 to
8 feet. Waves occasionally around 10 feet.
.TONIGHT...Southwest winds to 30 knots . Rain showers, snow
showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. Waves 7 to 11 feet
building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally around 15 feet.
.FRIDAY...Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west in the
afternoon. Rain and snow showers. Waves 8 to 12 feet. Waves
occasionally around 15 feet.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Snow
and rain showers in the evening, then snow showers overnight.
Waves 8 to 11 feet. Waves occasionally around 14 feet.
.SATURDAY...Southwest winds to 30 knots becoming west. A chance
of snow showers during the day, then snow showers Saturday night.
Waves 7 to 11 feet building to 9 to 12 feet. Waves occasionally
around 15 feet.
.SUNDAY...West winds to 30 knots becoming southwest. Waves 8 to
11 feet subsiding to 5 to 9 feet. Waves occasionally around
14 feet.
.MONDAY...Southwest winds to 30 knots diminishing to 15 to
25 knots. Waves 8 to 12 feet subsiding to 3 to 6 feet. Waves
occasionally around 15 feet.

Winds and waves higher in and near thunderstorms.

 

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Tonight
33-49"+ point and click. :mapsnow:
 
A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers after 2pm. Areas of blowing snow between noon and 2pm. High near 30. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly before 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%.
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2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:
Tonight
33-49"+ point and click. :mapsnow:
 
A chance of snow showers, mainly between 7pm and 9pm, then snow after 9pm. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 28. Southwest wind 6 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 11 to 17 inches possible.
Friday
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. High near 33. Southwest wind 8 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 14 to 20 inches possible.
Friday Night
Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Some thunder is also possible. Low around 22. Southwest wind 11 to 16 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 8 to 12 inches possible.
Saturday
Snow, mainly before 2pm, then a chance of snow showers after 2pm. Areas of blowing snow between noon and 2pm. High near 30. South wind 14 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Saturday Night
Snow, mainly before 3am, then a chance of snow showers after 3am. Low around 20. Chance of precipitation is 90%.

That isn't even the entire event either.

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Canadian side of Lake Erie getting some of the highest amounts Ive seen in a while. 15-60cm from Long Point ON-Fort Erie ON. 

Discussion:
An intense snow squall is expected to develop over Lake Erie tonight and may impact parts of Long Point through Friday before lifting northward toward the remainder of the Lake Erie shoreline on Saturday. At this time, the highest accumulations are most likely over Long Point.

Kincardine-Owen Sound-Parry Sound off Lake Huron and Georgian Bay looking at 30-60cm 

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3 hours ago, Weather Mike said:

On plane now arriving in 20min. Will be later today. Thanks for asking,    Meet two other chasers on my flight 

This is great! I know I am not the only one from the Central PA forum checking in here. I hope everybody stays safe and keeps reporting in so we know what's happening. 

Looks like there may be a big one next week, too. Wild days for November, especially when it was in the mid 70s just last week here in Williamsport.

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Lake Effect Snow Warning


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
219 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022

NYZ010-011-180330-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0005.221118T0000Z-221120T1800Z/
Northern Erie-Genesee-
Including the cities of Buffalo and Batavia
219 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS
EVENING TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Heavy lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations
  of 2 to 4 feet in the most persistent lake snows. The greatest
  risk of the highest totals will be from South Buffalo to
  Lancaster. The heaviest snow is expected late this evening
  through Friday night when snowfall rates could exceed 3 inches
  per hour. Winds gusting as high as 35 mph will produce patchy
  blowing snow.

* WHERE...Northern Erie and Genesee counties.

* WHEN...From 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Travel will be very difficult to impossible. The
  hazardous conditions will impact the Friday morning and
  evening commutes. The heavy snow could also bring down some
  tree limbs and cause scattered power outages.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy snow will fall in relatively narrow bands. If traveling, be
prepared for rapidly changing road conditions and visibilities.

Submit snow reports through our website or social media.
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Damn

Northern Erie-
Including the city of Buffalo
1259 PM EST Thu Nov 17 2022

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM
EST SUNDAY...

.THIS AFTERNOON...Mostly cloudy with a chance of rain and snow
showers early, then partly sunny with a chance of snow showers late.
Cold with highs in the mid 30s. West winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts
up to 30 mph. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.
.TONIGHT...Lake effect snow with some rumbles of thunder possible.
Snow may be heavy at times. Accumulation 9 to 17 inches in the most
persistent snows. Lows ranging from the upper 20s inland to the
lower 30s along the Lake Erie shore. West winds 5 to 10 mph,
becoming southwest. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY...Lake effect snow with some rumbles of thunder possible.
Snow may be heavy at times. Additional accumulation 9 to 17 inches
in the most persistent snows. Cold with highs in the lower 30s.
Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Chance of snow
near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Lake effect snow with some rumbles of thunder
possible. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows ranging from the lower
20s inland to the mid 20s along the Lake Erie shore. Southwest winds
10 to 15 mph with gusts up to 30 mph in the evening. Chance of snow
near 100 percent.
.SATURDAY...Lake effect snow in the morning, then a chance of snow
showers in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning.
Cold with highs in the upper 20s. Southwest winds 10 to 20 mph with
gusts up to 35 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Lake effect snow. Snow may be heavy at times. Lows
in the lower 20s. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.SUNDAY...Partly sunny with a 50 percent chance of snow showers.
Highs in the upper 20s.
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