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Season's first ...albeit minor, synoptic event late Tuesday in the Mid Atlantic ... New England on Wednesday


Typhoon Tip
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7 minutes ago, tunafish said:

Could only muster a Trace here last night.  Seeing some pooling of the rain in various spots.  Made me wonder if the top layer of the ground had frozen this week.  

 

Yep.  Definitely frozen.

 

image.png.bcdeef90a8691d3e3c9ab15cd50b83b9.png

damn, the soil is pretty cold. -483F to -490F? when did I move to Mars?

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Went back and looked at yesterday's model runs....one red flag on the NAM was that it's warmest layer was basically right at 850mb....it didn't have that big elevated warm tongue around 750-800mb that we often see on front enders. And it was pretty cold in the layer below 850 down to around 950mb.

When the NAM scores a coup on these, it's often a larger elevated warm layer significantly higher than 850mb...we didn't have that yesterday. PRobably something to think about the next time the NAM is the warmest....see exactly where in the column the warm layer is.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Went back and looked at yesterday's model runs....one red flag on the NAM was that it's warmest layer was basically right at 850mb....it didn't have that big elevated warm tongue around 750-800mb that we often see on front enders. And it was pretty cold in the layer below 850 down to around 950mb.

When the NAM scores a coup on these, it's often a larger elevated warm layer significantly higher than 850mb...we didn't have that yesterday. PRobably something to think about the next time the NAM is the warmest....see exactly where in the column the warm layer is.

Yeah when Tip and I were talking, I noted that this wasn't the classic warm tongue event above 800mb where it does well in. It just missed the mark overall on this one for whatever reason. HRRR did well and showed the good initial thump...and it was consistent with each run.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Went back and looked at yesterday's model runs....one red flag on the NAM was that it's warmest layer was basically right at 850mb....it didn't have that big elevated warm tongue around 750-800mb that we often see on front enders. And it was pretty cold in the layer below 850 down to around 950mb.

When the NAM scores a coup on these, it's often a larger elevated warm layer significantly higher than 850mb...we didn't have that yesterday. PRobably something to think about the next time the NAM is the warmest....see exactly where in the column the warm layer is.

And we still had several takers that held the NAM in front. It was a good outcome though on our favor

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah when Tip and I were talking, I noted that this wasn't the classic warm tongue event above 800mb where it does well in. It just missed the mark overall on this one for whatever reason. HRRR did well and showed the good initial thump...and it was consistent with each run.

The NAM warm layer was like 10-15mb thick....lol. It didn't really make a lot of sense. It was something that could get wiped out anyway with good lift.

The fact that all other guidance disagreed with it too was kind of a red flag. Usually when NAM does well, you'll at least see some other guidance hedging a little toward it even if it's not as robust as NAM, but that wasn't the case yesterday.

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14 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Went back and looked at yesterday's model runs....one red flag on the NAM was that it's warmest layer was basically right at 850mb....it didn't have that big elevated warm tongue around 750-800mb that we often see on front enders. And it was pretty cold in the layer below 850 down to around 950mb.

When the NAM scores a coup on these, it's often a larger elevated warm layer significantly higher than 850mb...we didn't have that yesterday. PRobably something to think about the next time the NAM is the warmest....see exactly where in the column the warm layer is.

Very good find and explanation. I didn’t peak at soundings but like you said the nam is known to sniff out the over performing warm layers in that 750-800 mb range at 48 hours , and it wasn’t doing that at those levels . So this warmth it saw Wasn’t in nam’s wheelhouse . I saw BTV disco was basically tossing nam yesterday . 

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5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Very good find and explanation. I didn’t peak at soundings but like you said the nam is known to sniff out the over performing warm layers in that 750-800 mb range at 48 hours , and it wasn’t doing that at those levels . So this warmth it saw Wasn’t in nam’s wheelhouse . I saw BTV disco was basically tossing nam yesterday . 

You definitely should chase. Epic

20221116_104547.jpg

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About 2" here, with a few tiny, rimed things still coming down.  No tracks yet in the woods after a wet 2 hours this morning, though flushed partridges walking in and walking out.  Yesterday at 4 PM heard 3 very loud shots, evenly spaced at an interval about what I'd do with my pump .30-06, definitely at the tree stand for which I'd given permission.  Walked most of the way in 45 minutes later to see what happened, heard/saw nothing though the 2 pickups were still parked roadside.  (If I'd thought to bring a flashlight I'd have continued but didn't wish to walk too close at late twilight when my blaze orange would look gray.)  My guess is they thought/knew they'd hit the deer and were tracking it, as if the critter had been quickly on the ground I'd have heard/seen the guys dragging it out.  Maybe - old saying is, "One shot, probable.  Two shots, possible.  Three shots, waste of ammunition."

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38 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Having not lived in Aroostook since 1985, I'm probably not qualified to comment.  Also, while I know what the "f" stands for (of course), I'm ignorant or have forgotten about the rest of the letters.  :nerdsmiley:

In other news, the dz/frdz switched back to tiny snow grains about 3 PM.

mother i'd like to f. I've seen many hot, good looking women up there. Some are from over the border, but they seem to take very good care of themselves and dress well, at least in the establishments I've been to. Winterwolf snowmobiles a lot up there, so I'm sure he can comment as well

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3000ft… 6”

1500ft… 5.5”

750ft… 4.0” (likely higher when snow stopped but measure when you can.  It’s a very soaking wet 4” left at home.)

Heres the 1500ft stack after some melting.  Might’ve gotten 6” if measured earlier but still a very wet dense slug of snow.  Had to think there was some good QPF in this.

So nice to have everything covered white again.  Good Advisory level snowfall.

6A92D66A-332B-4AD8-B8EE-23D60FAF3A5E.jpeg.1c0d7b8eed868a79115e9182e0e1e446.jpeg

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