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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


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37 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mild winter regionwide per the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI), with several locations observing a record mild winter thus far. Seems to be a bit of disconnect in Michigan, where some folks are reporting more snowfall than usual, but this objective measure is showing this past winter to have been very mild.

image.png.5a64930fd254a1536b62f11104d9a579.png

Grand Rapids saw one of its snowiest winters on record and hardly any place in Michigan has a big snowfall deficit. In fact southern MI has had some more fierce winter storms than usual. But we don't need cold to get snow. The winter overall was mild and the snow and ice cover less than normal. For individual cities you can go back to 1950 for AWSSI and it's clear that it's an all encompassing formula they use.

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37 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Grand Rapids saw one of its snowiest winters on record and hardly any place in Michigan has a big snowfall deficit. In fact southern MI has had some more fierce winter storms than usual. But we don't need cold to get snow. The winter overall was mild and the snow and ice cover less than normal. For individual cities you can go back to 1950 for AWSSI and it's clear that it's an all encompassing formula they use.

Do you receive a significant percentage of snowfall from LES in DTW?

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40 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Grand Rapids saw one of its snowiest winters on record and hardly any place in Michigan has a big snowfall deficit. In fact southern MI has had some more fierce winter storms than usual. But we don't need cold to get snow. The winter overall was mild and the snow and ice cover less than normal. For individual cities you can go back to 1950 for AWSSI and it's clear that it's an all encompassing formula they use.

 

And it's still not done. Got this weekend and then another behind it. 

Most likely BS but good ole goofus showing 30+ around here for the whole run. Lol 

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24 minutes ago, Cary67 said:

Do you receive a significant percentage of snowfall from LES in DTW?

It really depends on the year. For not being in a lake belt, our weather still is greatly affected by the lakes. We always get mood flakes anytime there's a cold frontal passage while it's often clear by you. But whether or not it's a bunch of traces or something more depends on flow, fetch, etc. Rarely can we say a significant percentage of our seasonal snowfall came from LES, but the two most generous lake seasons for DTW off the top of my head are 2006-07 & 2016-17. I would say the most difficult aspect of trying to decipher synoptic from LES is so many times cold fronts or clippers, which would have a certain amount of synoptic with them to begin with, get  "lake enhanced", boosting totals in MI.

 

In analyzing this year's totals, since everything is fresh enough in memory, of the 37" I estimate around 4-5" has been LES and maybe another few inches lake enhanced. Most of our snow has been synoptic, most of it wet.

 

It's probably very realistic to assume the difference in snowfall average between DTW (45") and ORD (38") is LES 

 

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2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Mild winter regionwide per the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI), with several locations observing a record mild winter thus far. Seems to be a bit of disconnect in Michigan, where some folks are reporting more snowfall than usual, but this objective measure is showing this past winter to have been very mild.

image.png.5a64930fd254a1536b62f11104d9a579.png

51 people died in Buffalo this winter due to the storms and its rated as moderate. 17 were literally found frozen to death outside during the Christmas Blizzard. 

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16 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

It really depends on the year. For not being in a lake belt, our weather still is greatly affected by the lakes. We always get mood flakes anytime there's a cold frontal passage while it's often clear by you. But whether or not it's a bunch of traces or something more depends on flow, fetch, etc. Rarely can we say a significant percentage of our seasonal snowfall came from LES, but the two most generous lake seasons for DTW off the top of my head are 2006-07 & 2016-17. I would say the most difficult aspect of trying to decipher synoptic from LES is so many times cold fronts or clippers, which would have a certain amount of synoptic with them to begin with, get  "lake enhanced", boosting totals in MI.

 

In analyzing this year's totals, since everything is fresh enough in memory, of the 37" I estimate around 4-5" has been LES and maybe another few inches lake enhanced. Most of our snow has been synoptic, most of it wet.

 

It's probably very realistic to assume the difference in snowfall average between DTW (45") and ORD (38") is LES 

 

 

Yep. Some years such as this one the lake has contributed I would guess around 35 inches to the 81 or so here. Like there 06-07 totals had alot to do with the lake.

If you follow the average seasonal snowfall I figured out a few years back that for every mile you go west of here you gain a inch while losing a inch till you get near Jackson where it begins to level out a bit more.  North burbs of Detroit gets a bit more vs where Josh is especially with west flow events. Those guys can explain that a bit better. 

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23 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

51 people died in Buffalo this winter due to the storms and its rated as moderate. 17 were literally found frozen to death outside during the Christmas Blizzard. 

This is an objective index of multiple variables. Looking at Buffalo, I can certainly see support for a moderate designation. Temperatures were very mild, and length of period with snow on ground was fairly low [except at figures of greater than 6"] despite the heavy snowfall.

All dating back to 1950, when the index begins:

  • Second fewest highs less than 32 [16]
  • Ninth warmest mean high Dec-Feb [37.9F]
  • Second warmest mean minimum, Dec-Feb [26.7F]
  • Fourth warmest mean average, Dec-Feb [32.3F]
  • Coldest low temperature of 0F, T-18th warmest [of 74 years]
  • Coldest high temperature of 14F, T-15th warmest [of 74 years]
  • 23rd least [of 74 years] for days with 1"+ snow depth
  • 27th least [of 74 years] for days with 3"+ snow depth
  • 37th [of 74 years], or right in middle of pack, for days with 6"+ snow depth

 

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4 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

So Marquette and Duluth and Minneapolis to date have had severe winters? 
seemed too mild for the severe index. Maybe it’s the snow cover. 

I can't really figure it out because there were a few colder winters with low snow they considered avg or even severe. For marquette the line is really straddling between average and severe

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Just now, michsnowfreak said:

I can't really figure it out because there were a few colder winters with low snow they considered avg or even severe. For marquette the line is really straddling between average and severe

Even tho the snow is a little above average for a few areas, It def had an average if not mild feel. 

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7 hours ago, RCNYILWX said:

The common miss northwest or the (less common this season) miss southeast special. Place your bets and run. Picking that this will be the event to jackpot the heart of the metro would be like those who put money on FDU and Princeton to win their first round games. Not smart bets, but felt good when they worked out.

 

I hope miss northwest on this one. I don't want more cold and snow.

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1 hour ago, TheClimateChanger said:

This is an objective index of multiple variables. Looking at Buffalo, I can certainly see support for a moderate designation. Temperatures were very mild, and length of period with snow on ground was fairly low [except at figures of greater than 6"] despite the heavy snowfall.

All dating back to 1950, when the index begins:

  • Second fewest highs less than 32 [16]
  • Ninth warmest mean high Dec-Feb [37.9F]
  • Second warmest mean minimum, Dec-Feb [26.7F]
  • Fourth warmest mean average, Dec-Feb [32.3F]
  • Coldest low temperature of 0F, T-18th warmest [of 74 years]
  • Coldest high temperature of 14F, T-15th warmest [of 74 years]
  • 23rd least [of 74 years] for days with 1"+ snow depth
  • 27th least [of 74 years] for days with 3"+ snow depth
  • 37th [of 74 years], or right in middle of pack, for days with 6"+ snow depth

 

I guess it’s how you judge a severe winter. This winter had 2 severe storms which imo have a bigger impact then Snow cover.  Not to mention loss of life. 6” on the ground all winter with temps in the 20s isn’t “severe” by any stretch. Imo this is a rather dumb rating system. The Buffalo Christmas blizzard will likely go down as worst winter weather. Conditions east of the Rockies ever…39 straight hours of blizzard conditions with single digit temps. Wind gusts of 79 mph and 50”+ of snow. Drifts were 20’+. The only place you see that type of weather is in the mountains. 

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3 hours ago, Harry said:

 

Yep. Some years such as this one the lake has contributed I would guess around 35 inches to the 81 or so here. Like there 06-07 totals had alot to do with the lake.

If you follow the average seasonal snowfall I figured out a few years back that for every mile you go west of here you gain a inch while losing a inch till you get near Jackson where it begins to level out a bit more.  North burbs of Detroit gets a bit more vs where Josh is especially with west flow events. Those guys can explain that a bit better. 

My area gets a good amount of LES.  Coming from Macomb county and moving to Livingston County it is night and day with LES!!  It has a lot to do with the hills from Ann Arbor to Lapeer as there are many times we do better than Lansing were it is flat.  Flint doesn't do as well either as it flat around there too but the it does better than Detroit.  

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3 hours ago, Lightning said:

What you don't think this is accurate :popcorn:

image.png.6a8f7ac2c5eae000f3257bf55ae6c540.png

 

That would fast track here into the top 3 possibly 2 and thus into the 100+ range. 

So yeah I certainly have my doubts. Ofcourse that would also as well break the March snowfall record and with that last system make a run towards the April record. What are the odds of seing three different months have a record broken like that? So yeah I say the odds of that model run are very very slim. Lol 

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5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I guess it’s how you judge a severe winter. This winter had 2 severe storms which imo have a bigger impact then Snow cover.  Not to mention loss of life. 6” on the ground all winter with temps in the 20s isn’t “severe” by any stretch. Imo this is a rather dumb rating system. The Buffalo Christmas blizzard will likely go down as worst winter weather. Conditions east of the Rockies ever…39 straight hours of blizzard conditions with single digit temps. Wind gusts of 79 mph and 50”+ of snow. Drifts were 20’+. The only place you see that type of weather is in the mountains. 

When I have time I'm going to look up each winter here since 1950 and see what they called it. Then based on temps/snow/snowcover I can get a better feel for what their weighing most heavily. But I have a feeling it's cold and snowcover.

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4 hours ago, Lightning said:

My area gets a good amount of LES.  Coming from Macomb county and moving to Livingston County it is night and day with LES!!  It has a lot to do with the hills from Ann Arbor to Lapeer as there are many times we do better than Lansing were it is flat.  Flint doesn't do as well either as it flat around there too but the it does better than Detroit.  

Best LES for DTW is Harry's favorite and mine, the I94 band.

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17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Best LES for DTW is Harry's favorite and mine, the I94 band.

 

The oddity was the November Les event I think? 21+ on a west flow event is insane for here but that's what it was. Not sure what you got from that. But yeah the i94 band usually works out best for both of us which is usually a more wnw flow.. 

Guessing the November Les event here was one of those one in a 100+ year events? Never ever thought my biggest snow event here would be via the lake but that did it. The PV storm and GHD is now number 2 with 18 from those two. 

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8 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

The oddity was the November Les event I think? 21+ on a west flow event is insane for here but that's what it was. Not sure what you got from that. But yeah the i94 band usually works out best for both of us which is usually a more wnw flow.. 

Guessing the November Les event here was one of those one in a 100+ year events? Never ever thought my biggest snow event here would be via the lake but that did it. The PV storm and GHD is now number 2 with 18 from those two. 

This Nov event wasn't great here. Just run of the mill dusting, then 1.8" from the Arctic front on Nov 19.

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18 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It really depends on the year. For not being in a lake belt, our weather still is greatly affected by the lakes. We always get mood flakes anytime there's a cold frontal passage while it's often clear by you. But whether or not it's a bunch of traces or something more depends on flow, fetch, etc. Rarely can we say a significant percentage of our seasonal snowfall came from LES, but the two most generous lake seasons for DTW off the top of my head are 2006-07 & 2016-17. I would say the most difficult aspect of trying to decipher synoptic from LES is so many times cold fronts or clippers, which would have a certain amount of synoptic with them to begin with, get  "lake enhanced", boosting totals in MI.

 

In analyzing this year's totals, since everything is fresh enough in memory, of the 37" I estimate around 4-5" has been LES and maybe another few inches lake enhanced. Most of our snow has been synoptic, most of it wet.

 

It's probably very realistic to assume the difference in snowfall average between DTW (45") and ORD (38") is LES 

 

Don't forget the ol' faithful Lake Effect Clouds...:arrowhead:

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20 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

Grand Rapids saw one of its snowiest winters on record and hardly any place in Michigan has a big snowfall deficit. In fact southern MI has had some more fierce winter storms than usual. But we don't need cold to get snow. The winter overall was mild and the snow and ice cover less than normal. For individual cities you can go back to 1950 for AWSSI and it's clear that it's an all encompassing formula they use.

Yeah this is how they score the AWSSI for that map: https://mrcc.purdue.edu/research/awssi/AWSSI_InfoSheet_2pg.pdf

image.png.08d31e2a8280db4e0d4abcb99d9e2b59.png

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