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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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2 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

Better than nothing imho. Unless you have another resource for better maps?

I would have gladly made the maps if they would have paid me lol. A truly accurate map would take a lot of Time time because you'd have to analyze individual events each winter and the pns statements that went with them.

These are the sites they report consistent snowfall data:

DTW, FNT, MBS, DTX, ARB. Everything else is relying on coop and cocohras data. While some coop observers are diligent (myself included hehe) others are not. So what you would get is the coop sites that were filled with missing data, or would call a snowfall that had melted or sublimated a trace by their observation time, are going to have much lower totals than other nearby areas. So when you take all those numbers and make a map. You're making all these weird squiggles and circles to try and make it make sense when it doesnt. As stebo said. Nothing is better than somethinh wildly inaccurate data. Coop observer data is often notorious for lowballed snow data, so there's little accuracy to the actual accumulated season total data.

 

Now they do have an archive for all their event writeups which is great because you can see the haves and have not for individual events. 

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9 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I would have gladly made the maps if they would have paid me lol. A truly accurate map would take a lot of Time time because you'd have to analyze individual events each winter and the pns statements that went with them.

These are the sites they report consistent snowfall data:

DTW, FNT, MBS, DTX, ARB. Everything else is relying on coop and cocohras data. While some coop observers are diligent (myself included hehe) others are not. So what you would get is the coop sites that were filled with missing data, or would call a snowfall that had melted or sublimated a trace by their observation time, are going to have much lower totals than other nearby areas. So when you take all those numbers and make a map. You're making all these weird squiggles and circles to try and make it make sense when it doesnt. As stebo said. Nothing is better than somethinh wildly inaccurate data. Coop observer data is often notorious for lowballed snow data, so there's little accuracy to the actual accumulated season total data.

 

Now they do have an archive for all their event writeups which is great because you can see the haves and have not for individual events. 

I get all that and precision suffers ofc. APX finds a way to make it happen. Perhaps they should share their secret with the two SMI offices. I like maps, lol. In your opinion, how far off are they on avg? 6" in a season, or even more in certain regions? And you hint that it is almost always a lower amount of snow. I'd be more concerned if totals were artificially inflated. 

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9 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I get all that and precision suffers ofc. APX finds a way to make it happen. Perhaps they should share their secret with the two SMI offices. I like maps, lol. In your opinion, how far off are they on avg? 6" in a season, or even more in certain regions? And you hint that it is almost always a lower amount of snow. I'd be more concerned if totals were artificially inflated. 

 

I have seen those maps be off 2+feet for seasonal snowfall. Ofcourse it's a bit trickier thanks to the lake out this way. 

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9 hours ago, RogueWaves said:

I get all that and precision suffers ofc. APX finds a way to make it happen. Perhaps they should share their secret with the two SMI offices. I like maps, lol. In your opinion, how far off are they on avg? 6" in a season, or even more in certain regions? And you hint that it is almost always a lower amount of snow. I'd be more concerned if totals were artificially inflated. 

The grosse pointe spotter, which was the only observer near Detroit city proper, used to be notorious for low balling and tons of missing data. But yet those maps would represent whatever amount was reported, including the low balls, missing data, and all. They've gotten a bit better but still not great. Just ask powerball lol, he used to live near there. It causes the maps to have an unrealistic representation for detroit and the far east side. I understand they are working with what they had, but I wish there were more diligent observers. There are also handful of good observers who phone in for individual storms but don't keep consistent data. 

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1 hour ago, Stevo6899 said:

I'd feel more comfortable if I was more out by you than in se mi. This has nw trend written all-over it if if bombs out like the gfs portrays. 

 

Unless that MJO can make a run at 4 the nw trend thing should stay dead as it has most of this month. Ofcourse it looks to be headed into the COD next weekend and beyond so harder to say beyond that time frame. The EPO, NAO, AO look to tank later this week as well. Interesting times ahead for sure. 

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looks comically similar to all the other events this season, amazing consistency really
The common miss northwest or the (less common this season) miss southeast special. Place your bets and run. Picking that this will be the event to jackpot the heart of the metro would be like those who put money on FDU and Princeton to win their first round games. Not smart bets, but felt good when they worked out.


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Mild winter regionwide per the Accumulated Winter Season Severity Index (AWSSI), with several locations observing a record mild winter thus far. Seems to be a bit of disconnect in Michigan, where some folks are reporting more snowfall than usual, but this objective measure is showing this past winter to have been very mild.

image.png.5a64930fd254a1536b62f11104d9a579.png

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