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Winter 2022/23 Short/Medium Range Discussion


Chicago Storm
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58 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

Final product still TBD, but the Euro and GEM have caved towards the GFS idea of a late week/weekend S Plains cut off storm system, which eventually moves NE.

The needle does not look as if it will be thread.

No kidding.  The model handling of this one has not been stellar to say the least.

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I do like the potential going into December, you get ridging into Alaska and the eastern Aleutians which tends to be favorable for troughing in the west so we would at the very least have a storm track coming in from the southwest, if that ridge can tilt a bit northeastward you could dump down a good amount of cold air.

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15 hours ago, Stebo said:

I do like the potential going into December, you get ridging into Alaska and the eastern Aleutians which tends to be favorable for troughing in the west so we would at the very least have a storm track coming in from the southwest, if that ridge can tilt a bit northeastward you could dump down a good amount of cold air.

All key Indices are pointing cold. Hopefully we can a favorable system or 2 to go along with.

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Final product still TBD, but the Euro and GEM have caved towards the GFS idea of a late week/weekend S Plains cut off storm system, which eventually moves NE.

The needle does not look as if it will be thread.

Some ENS are now threading the needle, with another incoming trough.

Not a likely scenario, but I guess it’s something to watch if you’re looking for a fairly minor event across portions of IL/WI/IN/MI.


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1 hour ago, Stebo said:

We need precip more than anything right now. I'd gladly burn some of next month if it means putting down moisture for later on.

Sad, but true. This Sunday's system has a shot at being the single wettest event since 2-17. If that doesn't paint the picture, I can't help explain it further.  

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  • 2 weeks later...

First potential to watch will be late this upcoming week. A piece of the trough currently along the West Coast moves east across the CONUS, with the PV lobe in Canada departing back north.

How quickly things evolve will greatly dictate track/strength of this potential.


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