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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


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2 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point...

Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know...

Yeah there's a nice -EPO that sets up in a few days, should bring the Arctic back south. 

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Springfield:

Quote
During the overnight hours, a second heavy band of snow will
develop behind the surface low. This band is forecast to track
along and just south of I-44 as well, producing at least 1 inch
per hour snowfall rates between roughly 1am and 4am. A peek at
forecast soundings highlights some weak instability aloft,
generally across northern Arkansas however it does bleed into far
southern Missouri, therefore some rumbles of thunder may occur,
further enhancing snowfall rates.

 

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Given that we aren't seeing much of a changeover in western Oklahoma and that same precip shield is moving into S KS faster than expected, I'm wondering if don't end up with higher totals similar to what the NAM has shown? 

Would be a boom forecast out here for sure. 

EDIT: The 12z HRRR/3KM and 12KM (Regular) NAM both agree on 3-5" amounts out here. 

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10 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Currently a very pretty snow just on the southeast side of Wichita. 34deg on the weather station though, so what's falling is melting. 

There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid. 

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6 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

Meaning the current actual temp is 2-3 colder than what the HRRR shows? 

Yes, at least in the Mt. Vernon Missouri area. The current temp (11:30) at the university of Missouri extension office in Mt. Vernon is 36.3 and the 16z HRRR showed it being roughly 38 there at 11. 

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4 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

There's a moderate band of snow between us & the OK/KS border, we should see the ground whiten up in that band. Hope the precip fills in south of Enid. 

You're right that band looks pretty healthy. Should also see some dynamic cooling with the heavier snow as well. Seeing signs of that already, temp down to 33.6 from 34.0 here. Flakes are increasing in size and getting heavier. 

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28 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

I don't think we're going to warm as much as what was forecasted.

 

Yeah, its looking that way but still a long way to go, and it could mean that we just never really cool off this evening. 

 

With that said, the HRRR is still 3-4 degrees too warm at soon . 

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