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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


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9 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

@ouamber Its also digging and slowing down a bit more when you look at the model trend loops. This means nearly everyone will be seeing more snow. I am still just impressed with how well the models have overall locked on with this system.

It really has been remarkable. Absolutely rock solid for DAYS with only minor shifts. Memphis Low track was snuffed out late last week and hasn't budged.

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NWS Springfield had an excellent and thorough write-up overnight.  It’s too much to post all of it here.  But here are a couple of paragraphs that highlight the strength of the storm.  This is a great setup for some of us to cash in on a big one (if temps cooperate).  
 

FROM NWS SPRINGFIELD: 

 

When comparing this system to the local heavy snow climatology,
there continues to be several potential matches: Upper level jet
structure would support strong lift for precipitation/potential
snowfall. A pivot of the closed 500mb low near/just southeast of
the area could lead to TROWAL development (currently this looks
most likely across south central Missouri). The current mean
850mb low track from southwest to northeast through Arkansas is
also favorable along with the aforementioned 700mb low track over
the area. Night time snowfall accumulation is typically efficient,
especially in any mesoscale/heavier bands. At this time surface
temps appear to remain near freezing which would support a heavy,
wet snow. Current snow to liquid ratios of 10-12:
1 are supported by most guidance with the colder SLR`s expected as
the precip comes to an end Wednesday morning. CIPS historical
analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system
with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982
systems.

Forecast trends over the last 24 hours:
1. Guidance has come in slightly higher with overall qpf amounts
with anywhere from 0.75-1.00 total qpf with this system along and
south of I-44. This is a significant amount of qpf to be dealing
with a winter event. 2. A slight shift north in the overall track
of the system (very subtle but important). 3. Given the increase
in qpf, snowfall amounts in general have increased for areas along
and south of I-44.

Here are the latest NBM snow probs:

>2 inch snow: 60-90% in the Winter Storm Watch area.

>4 inch snow: 50-80% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest
probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

>6 inch snow: 40-60% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest
probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

>8 inch snow: 20-40% in the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.
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Slight northern jog on GFS, NAM and Icon, might be enough to push Tulsa county into a Winter Storm Watch.

Canadian and the long range 12Z HRRR keeping that heaviest snow to the south. Euro still playing catch up with the others so I'm not considering it as heavily as the others right now(has been an outlier almost this entire time so far).

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4 hours ago, The Waterboy said:

NWS Springfield had an excellent and thorough write-up overnight.  It’s too much to post all of it here.  But here are a couple of paragraphs that highlight the strength of the storm.  This is a great setup for some of us to cash in on a big one (if temps cooperate).  
 

FROM NWS SPRINGFIELD: 

 

When comparing this system to the local heavy snow climatology,
there continues to be several potential matches: Upper level jet
structure would support strong lift for precipitation/potential
snowfall. A pivot of the closed 500mb low near/just southeast of
the area could lead to TROWAL development (currently this looks
most likely across south central Missouri). The current mean
850mb low track from southwest to northeast through Arkansas is
also favorable along with the aforementioned 700mb low track over
the area. Night time snowfall accumulation is typically efficient,
especially in any mesoscale/heavier bands. At this time surface
temps appear to remain near freezing which would support a heavy,
wet snow. Current snow to liquid ratios of 10-12:
1 are supported by most guidance with the colder SLR`s expected as
the precip comes to an end Wednesday morning. CIPS historical
analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system
with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982
systems.

Forecast trends over the last 24 hours:
1. Guidance has come in slightly higher with overall qpf amounts
with anywhere from 0.75-1.00 total qpf with this system along and
south of I-44. This is a significant amount of qpf to be dealing
with a winter event. 2. A slight shift north in the overall track
of the system (very subtle but important). 3. Given the increase
in qpf, snowfall amounts in general have increased for areas along
and south of I-44.

Here are the latest NBM snow probs:

>2 inch snow: 60-90% in the Winter Storm Watch area.

>4 inch snow: 50-80% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest
probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

>6 inch snow: 40-60% in the Winter Storm Watch area with highest
probs along the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

>8 inch snow: 20-40% in the higher terrain of the Ozark Plateau.

"CIPS historical analogs also highlight similarities with the setup of this system with past heavy snowfalls, including the 12/24/2002 and 1/31/1982 systems."

I remember the Christmas 2002 snowstorm. I was in SW Missouri at the time. That was fun. Had 26 inches on the ground for Christmas day.

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26 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

Advisory out for south-central and southeast Kansas. Looking for 1-3" in metro Wichita, with higher amounts southeast of the Flint Hills. 

Though, the NAM may be onto something...

Been patiently waiting for the northwest shift that seems to always happen with these stronger systems. Models have held steady the past few days, but as mentioned, there may be signs of a last second shift here. It won't be much of a shift, and south and east of here will certainly be the jackpot but South Central KS may sneak out a surprise over achiever. We'll see if the trend continues. 

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Some of the QPF totals being put out by models are insane tonight. If SGF is right, and ratios are close to 12-1…. Could get pretty crazy. 
 

Oklahoma is getting screwed because most of theirs will fall during the daylight hours, and with marginal temps, I don’t think they see efficient accumulation. 

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3 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Some of the QPF totals being put out by models are insane tonight. If SGF is right, and ratios are close to 12-1…. Could get pretty crazy. 
 

Oklahoma is getting screwed because most of theirs will fall during the daylight hours, and with marginal temps, I don’t think they see efficient accumulation. 

NAM is still amped tonight. Would love to see temps start to model colder.

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10 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

NAM is still amped tonight. Would love to see temps start to model colder.

That's the one thing the TV Mets are going on about down here right now, they aren't buying the 10:1 ratios and staying conservative on the totals thinking the 32-34 degree temps could make the ratios closer to 7:1 which makes sense as the snow would be wetter and cause compaction. Its noteworthy TSA and SGF are sticking to the 10:1 data though. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and if this storm system does go colder.

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I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point...

Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know...

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3 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

That's the one thing the TV Mets are going on about down here right now, they aren't buying the 10:1 ratios and staying conservative on the totals thinking the 32-34 degree temps could make the ratios closer to 7:1 which makes sense as the snow would be wetter and cause compaction. Its noteworthy TSA and SGF are sticking to the 10:1 data though. It will be interesting to see who winds up being right and if this storm system does go colder.

If it were to actually verify colder, these 10-1 totals could verify in places and we'd see some of these double digit totals per the NAM, HRRR, and GFS.  Would be sweet.

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2 minutes ago, Wx 24/7 said:

I definitely think MO and AR cash in because of the majority of this snow falling in the overnight hours. The models are really going gung-ho. I am trying to temper my expectations, but man... if Lucy moves the football at this point...

Also, don't look now, but next week looks like the arctic air is coming back... good signal for some light icing Sunday, too. One system at a time, I know...

Yes, I agree the more N and E you go are in a much better spot.  I'm anticipating some good snow,  but maybe not anything really big.

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