Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


JoMo
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

Jomo, I know this is off topic compared to what's going on currently, but do we want the euro depiction of the mjo moving forward instead of the gefs, which has the mjo into phase 4? I believe 4-6 are warm phases for sure

I haven't really been following the long range lately as it hasn't seemed to make a difference and will change. With that being said the 18z GEFS looked decent in the long run and had a nice -EPO coming up which dumped cold. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Indeed the NAM has nudged north a bit with more widespread heavy totals and seems to be following what the GFS and Euro have been showing. I am still skeptical of what the actual temps will be on the day of so the 10:1 ratio might be exaggerated but I also think the "Snow Depth" parameter that some are swearing by is underdone. Best to take the two and work towards the middle. sn10_acc-imp.us_sc.png

snod-imp.us_sc.png

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

52 minutes ago, stormdragonwx said:

00z GEFS a bit disorganized on agreement tonight. Will have to see if this trends after tonight now that the system is onshore. I suspect its a bad run.

gefs.png

It's on shore. The temp profiles are messing with the snowfall output since temps are marginal. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This is probably my inexperience showing through, as obviously the NWS meteorologists and even news meteorologists know more than me. But it seems like most of them are calling for just 1-2 inches of snow. I know there will be initial melting from ground temps, onset rain that will cut down potential totals and the fact that it’ll be above 32, so additional melting. But 1-2(or in NWS Tulsa’s case less than an inch of snow) just seems too low to me. I’m not saying that 6 inches should be plastered everywhere but widespread 3-4 doesn’t seem crazy to me.

 

But again, I’m both an amateur and a biased snow lover, so I don’t have the best take on these.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 hours ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Has anyone seen any posts from NW Whiteout on here lately?  He's usually all over these winter conversations.   Hope he's ok.

Hey man I'm good, lots of family things going on so really busy this year. Hope you and the rest of the forum are all well!! Thnx for thinking of me my friend that means a lot. Been mainly just browsing and reading when time permits.

Hopefully this boring winter turns around in Feb. soon. Xmas was awesome though with the lil bit of snow and cold so I'm thankful for that. Take care buddy, ty again

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The 12Z GFS from WeatherBell with this porn eye candy snow forecast.  Am seriously doubting this as realistic of course, but I do the the storm track for NW AR.  Question whether the 10:1 ratio is possible, although time of day does help some.  The temps are certainly marginal as depicted by the 7pm Tuesday GFS temp.  The Euro is a bit warmer, although I am not sure how well models do with dynamic cooling in the heavier snow bands.

image.thumb.png.ca0624d9331d0431cc2fb39f60286c0e.pngimage.thumb.png.2a12113b64e79fbc723c4f53855294e9.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, NwWhiteOut said:

Hey man I'm good, lots of family things going on so really busy this year. Hope you and the rest of the forum are all well!! Thnx for thinking of me my friend that means a lot. Been mainly just browsing and reading when time permits.

Hopefully this boring winter turns around in Feb. soon. Xmas was awesome though with the lil bit of snow and cold so I'm thankful for that. Take care buddy, ty again

Hey man good to hear from you.   Glad to see you're doing well.   I was wondering as I know you, Jomo, and 24/7 have been on here a few years with me.   Are you still in Fayetteville?  What are you thinking about this mid-week storm?  I think we might be good for 2-4 inches around here. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

44 minutes ago, MoWeatherguy said:

Hey man good to hear from you.   Glad to see you're doing well.   I was wondering as I know you, Jomo, and 24/7 have been on here a few years with me.   Are you still in Fayetteville?  What are you thinking about this mid-week storm?  I think we might be good for 2-4 inches around here. 

Yes, still in Fayetteville. Im concerned with temps with that storm, prbly be a heavy sloppy wet snow unless we can get colder or wet bulb in some heavier bands etc. I'm craving snow though that's for sure lol. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Oz GFS definitely pulled north. (to my untrained eye) I've got family in Morris, about 35 miles south-east of Tulsa...they look to be near the bullseye. I live at 61st and Lewis in Tulsa, about a mile south of I-44. I would thrilled with 3 inches, but if we can squeak out 6?? Man, that would be amazing! :snowwindow:

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, stormdragonwx said:

Local forecast totals from KY3 in Springfield and KNWA in Fayetteville. Naturally the guys here in Arkansas are playing it more conservative. Its not too often we see 8+ here.

75W4B7KIFJDRJE3XETA6XNHMLE.png

53463645.png

For what it’s worth, KY3 already lowered amounts slightly 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...