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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


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3 minutes ago, rockchalk83 said:

I have a hard time buying a foot plus to the I-44 corridor with marginal temps like the GFS is trying to sell. It's trying to do produce 3 inches of snow here in SC KS tomorrow with temps of 34-37 degrees. 

That said, dynamic cooling is an equalizer. 

Snow depth maps would show 7" in the foot plus snow accumulation zones... so your comment is very valid. Snow output versus accumulation and depth are not the same in marginal situations like this may be. 

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1 hour ago, StormChazer said:

Here's the GFS to drool over.

 

1674669600-Gd7jBbPFZTA.png

 

The lift this run generates is off the charts.

 

1674604800-rOlwLbPraps.png

haha The good ol' GFS teasing us with crazy totals days before the event as usual. Now if the Euro does this later on as well, its all hands on deck.

EDIT: UKMET is not as crazy but shows a very similar swath. Waiting to see what the Euro and Canadian show here shortly.

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4 days out with tight model agreement yielding high snow totals is about best case scenario at this stage of the game.

If these stay in agreement for the next 24-36 hours, then at that point I think we can safely say we have a big one on our hands. But I think at this point it's not a stretch to assume that we WILL get snow, just how much?

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Well I suppose I'll finally chime in after model watching the past couple weeks, watching systems either fall apart once inside the 180hr range or track north of me. Today seems to be first day that all models are starting to align on how this system is going to eject into the plains. Should be fun to monitor over the weekend. At this time, everything seems on the table here in ICT, from a complete miss to the south to one of the better snows we've had in a while. I do like that the track is south at this time, as these tend to trend north when it is a strong system like currently modeled. It wouldn't take much of a shift to get in on some of the higher qpf currently over Oklahoma. Here's to hoping we all cash in some how. 

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10 minutes ago, RocketWX said:

Well I suppose I'll finally chime in after model watching the past couple weeks, watching systems either fall apart once inside the 180hr range or track north of me. Today seems to be first day that all models are starting to align on how this system is going to eject into the plains. Should be fun to monitor over the weekend. At this time, everything seems on the table here in ICT, from a complete miss to the south to one of the better snows we've had in a while. I do like that the track is south at this time, as these tend to trend north when it is a strong system like currently modeled. It wouldn't take much of a shift to get in on some of the higher qpf currently over Oklahoma. Here's to hoping we all cash in some how. 

This 100%. Finally nice to see something around here other than tumbleweeds and duststorms. 

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With temperature being one of the main concerns, the 12Z NAM has it plenty cold in the areas where it’s snowing.

Didn’t love the southern shift of the track overnight, makes me miss out on a lot here in north Tulsa county. But the morning gfs run nudged back North a touch, so hoping for just a couple more nudges and the euro to go back as well.

 

 

image.thumb.png.00f42d2a0e0ca6662ec757e85a997be6.png

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Wait!!!! Where is the 20"+ snow the models were promising me two days ago? Oh that's right... back to reality we go. ;) I wonder how many model maps have been posted on social media the last few days. I will be more interested once the system is fully sampled. Either way, looks like a decent snow for most of us unless there is a huge shift north or a small shift south. :D

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Break out the sad trombone for the southern Kansas folk. It's too warm for snow the system today, and the storm for Tuesday/Wednesday looks to be too far south to do anything, unless there's a drastic shift north.

Bummer. On the plus side, western Kansas (where the heart of the D4 drought is,) is getting some much needed snowfall. 

Onward.

 

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I’m ok with the NAM so far, but can’t focus too much that far out on it, it’ll change a lot until about hour 60.

it’s all about the storm track and temps(duh). As the models project a further south track, you wind up with less snow totals across the board except for the small core of the low where someone gets hammered. The further north we go, the cooler the air and better chances of prolonged and widespread snow. Any delay of the system at this point also increases higher snow odds as it seems pretty likely that after 6PM Tuesday, temps get low enough and the 540 line pushes east. I still genuinely think someone is going to push getting a foot of snow where that deformation band sets up as the low passes through, but will that be Davis, OK? Out in the higher terrain of the Ozarks? Wichita Falls? Even a 20 mile track difference considerably changes the forecast due to the type of set up. I currently am thinking 4 inches for Tulsa, and that will still make me very happy. 

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