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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


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1 hour ago, Wx 24/7 said:

It is really going to have to pick up in the second half of January and February or most of these long range forecasts were waaaay off. 

I agree. We have a strong jet, more typical of strong El niño so it will be tough. Our best chance imo is with the SSW event if we get one but there are alot of if's with that. 

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At hour 8,982,336 there is a massive blizzard for the area... some 60+" of snow. I know it is that far out, but that's when winter will really start. 

(This is sarcasm... merely frustrated at how uneventful this winter has been. It is really going to have to be backloaded to live up to its hype.)

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8 hours ago, Wx 24/7 said:

At hour 8,982,336 there is a massive blizzard for the area... some 60+" of snow. I know it is that far out, but that's when winter will really start. 

(This is sarcasm... merely frustrated at how uneventful this winter has been. It is really going to have to be backloaded to live up to its hype.)

We've cashed in on like 200" of snow so far on the models. 12z Euro looked great. Too bad it'll change.

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39 minutes ago, StormChazer said:

Maybe another quick burst of snow Sunday morning? Hoping something comes of the 25th.

Looks like models give N OK 1-2" of snow Saturday night into Sunday.

Not sure what to make of the storm aoa the 25th. Each model shows the range of possibilities with this. Upper lows that dig south across the Rockies are tricky. 

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All three major players are now in agreement of this storm dropping significant snowfall in our area for this storm 4 days out, can’t get much better if you’re a snow lover at the moment. 
still have to refine the track of the low, which inevitably means someone will go from excited to disappointed, but will that be someone to the south, north or east or west? Either way. Feeling good about this at the moment.

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The 06Z Euro run doesn't go out past 90 hours, so can't tell anything yet on the operational. However, the control run of the 06Z Euro goes out 144 hours. FWIW, the control run of the 06Z euro puts down more snow and has the storm track slightly further north than the control run of the 00Z Euro. So we will see if that trend is reflected in the 12Z operational run today.

Might be a sign of the models consolidating even more.

 

Here is what I'm talking about.

 

00Z Euro Control

1674712800-HpfgOq2uSj8.png

 

06Z Euro Control

 

1674712800-7QwqIRcFhCc.png

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