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MO/KS/AR/OK 2022-2023 Winter Discussion


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Definitely the main threat with this system though as stated by Springfield's AFD. 

"NBM probabilities show the potential for wind gusts up to 50 mph Thursday into Friday, which may result in power outages." "These cold temperatures in combination with strong gusty winds will result in wind chill values near -30F Thursday night into Friday morning. For reference, the last time wind chills dropped below -30F at Springfield was in 1989. Frostbite will occur in 15 minutes or less in these conditions."

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21 minutes ago, The Waterboy said:

For what it’s worth (which may not be much) the ICON has continued to trend more in our favor over the last 5 runs.  The 18z was actually pretty solid.  

The icon moves the cold air in fast. I think that’s what needs to be watched the closest 

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13 minutes ago, MUWX said:

The icon continues to be much faster with the cold air. The 0z icon is about 3 hours faster with the cold air than the nam is. This results in a 6 am temperature difference of 21 degrees between the two models. 

The Icon has the right idea. Cold air is dense and always moves faster than forecast. 

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Really quiet in here... morning model runs so no real dramatic changes to my thinking. Did see that the Canadian and EURO want to drop a clipper in on Monday now it appears. Something else to watch... 

 

Oh, to be in the Buffalo, NY area. Crazy winter they have had already!

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Just now, stormdragonwx said:

Looks like models are trending drier and further north again. As it sits I think outside of MO and KS we will see 1" maybe 2" at best.

I can't emphasize enough how much trouble 1" or so of snow, 40 mph winds, and temps dropping to near zero in a matter of hours can cause. This isn't going to be a huge snow, but the impacts are going to be significant. 

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29 minutes ago, MUWX said:

Springfield extended their winter storm watch. It now includes basically everyone except the southern tier of counties. 

Make sense for them. I figured SGF would either today or tomorrow. You guys up there will have a lot more going on.

Meanwhile TSA is continuing to dial back on the snow impacts and focusing on the wind chills.

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I think we’re all too nervous!  Regardless of the total amount of snow this storm will be crazy with the winds and temps.  Will definitely be one to remember.  My hope is that we are issued a blizzard warning.  Pretty sure I’ve never been under one of those before in all my years.  
 

Keep the updates coming!!!

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Winter weather advisory issued for Northwest Arkansas. Our forecast calls for 1-3 inches. The advisory says that near blizzard like conditions will briefly be possible behind the front:
 

ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Near blizzard like conditions will
  briefly be possible behind the front with greatly reduced
  visibilities.
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