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TS Nicole Banter Thread


NeffsvilleWx
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9 minutes ago, Drummer said:

I’d really love for this thing to defy the odds and either fizzle out or curve north faster. 
 

currently at WDW until the 13th. Hopefully minimal impacts. Maybe some easement in the crowds and some ponchos.  

You're just missing the Artemis launch!

 

Being a recent transplant, I don't have any experience with WDW and storms. But I hope they stay open and crowd size is reduced for your sake. Crowds are easily the worst part of Disney and I consider myself fortunate that neither of my kids are really into it.

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I think due to the size of the wind field that the storm surge in NE FL is being underestimated, 4 days of fetch coming onshore through multiple tide cycles during a "Beaver Tide" will push more water up the St Johns than anticipated, I feel it will be as high or higher than Irma in 2017.

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2 hours ago, olafminesaw said:

I kept wondering why the advisory times are one hour earlier, took me forever to figure out why... Hurricanes after fall back are not the norm apparently 

I suspect that's because they operate on Zulu/UTC time, which does not change for the switch from daylight savings time to standard time (or vice-versa).

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There's not enough lulz for this post

8 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

 

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Many friends and family in Ft lauderdale and North to West Palm Beach.  Not a Single one is taking this storm seriously. Like zero. I hope it’s because they have extra supplies from Ian but I y family there boarded up for Ian and they are not planning to board up for this.

 

 Keeping it at TS intensity < 48 to landfall has a lot to do with the thinking that it won’t get dangerous in time 

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Its not as simple as a Cat 1 can cause this much surge.  This was not an ordinary Category 1 storm.  it was extremely large, and on top of that was interacting with a very strong high pressure system.  Those two elements created a strong pressure gradient that delivered a 200 mile swatch of NW 50-60 MPH winds that drove insane amounts of water into the FL coast.  A similar Cat 1 storm (Katrina) was in a similar situation and evolved much differently as a storm with respect to storm surge.  There have been several hurricanes that have greatly overperformed their storm surge values due to extreme large fetch of winds (Ike, Nicole, Sandy, etc). 

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