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nicole's remnants thread


forkyfork
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Even at the time{for Southern B'lyn} of greatest probability of exceeding 39mph, the Probability here is 0%.    Gusts could briefly be near 50mph off shore.    We get about 1" of rain.    The T at this time, say 4am, is near 70!.     Th, F, Sat could average +7 together.

1668254400-91vwA2iWbfE.png

 

Nicole crosses east coast of Florida shortly--near 27.5N.      Strongest winds are to the north of this.        20 hours later it will cross the Florida Panhandle area near 85W.

1668060000-tZ0nWTxiorg.png

 

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our local police department put out this advisory

11 NOV 2022

Late Friday into early Saturday morning we are expecting a Tropical Storm with heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and strong winds. Secure any outdoor furniture to prevent physical damage or harm. Please report and avoid any flooded areas, down powerlines and trees.  Any immediate emergencies please dial 9-1-1, all other calls dial the non-emergency line at (908)-753-3112.

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4 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

our local police department put out this advisory

11 NOV 2022

Late Friday into early Saturday morning we are expecting a Tropical Storm with heavy rainfall, isolated thunderstorms, and strong winds. Secure any outdoor furniture to prevent physical damage or harm. Please report and avoid any flooded areas, down powerlines and trees.  Any immediate emergencies please dial 9-1-1, all other calls dial the non-emergency line at (908)-753-3112.

I got a similar email from Optimum.

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The dynamics for the wind gust potential don't look all that severe now, but the dry slot to the west may force this oncoming frontal rain to max out over the NYC region, further west, lower totals until central PA with the heavier rain from the dying tropical depression over w PA and upstate NY towards BGM and BTV. Could be some locations in n NJ that get essentially dry slotted until the cold front arrives. 

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Upton:

"Thus there is a concern as these

environmental parameters max out late in the night and into early

Saturday morning that a fine line of convection develops as the

front and max forcing coincides with the anomalous moisture rich

environment. The potential is there for lower top convection with a

struggle to get higher instability this time of year, with the low

top convection possibly triggering a very short round of severe

weather. There is some backing of the lowest wind in the column.

Thus, a spin up with higher speed shear and some directional shear

in the lowest 2 km, and especially 1 km remains a concern for some

short lived, but intense convection approaching Saturday morning.

With more of an isothermal profile in the column, the concern is

that with the front approaching mixing extends lower down in the

column resulting in strong to damaging wind gusts along the boundary."

 

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