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nicole's remnants thread


forkyfork
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  • Rjay pinned this topic

In 1861, Hurricane 6 moved up the east coast Nov 1-3 and brought higher tidal levels for New York harbor than for many years previous, and did other damage in the region up to and including Boston. I have no source of rainfall for New York City that far back, but Toronto had a large amount of rain Nov 1-2 (over 3 inches) indicating that this hurricane must have phased with a GL low in the vicinity of upstate NY. This storm is also known as the Expedition Hurricane because of its impact on a Civil War battle further south. Another possible concept to keep in mind is the explosive deepening of the Nov 9-10 1913 storm which moved from Georgia to southern Ontario and created the hurricane force northerly winds that caused a shipping disaster on Lakes Huron and Erie (mostly Huron), the storm being labelled the White Hurricane at the time as blizzard conditions developed on its western flank. It was quite warm on the east coast and even as far inland as Toronto during the approach of this rapidly deepening low (somewhat analogous to the Jan 1978 storm over the GL). 

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My hope would be for the eastern track-more rain area wide which we still need and less wind. I tend to think the west track is more likely which means more rain in PA/NJ and 60+ mph wind for NYC and east, which has also been the most common the last few years with these tropical/transitioning systems. If the Euro insists on it that much and now the GFS is trending to it, it’s likely more right. 

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1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

Still lots of questions regarding intensity, phasing, etc. 

Will be interesting to see if this blows up before hitting FL. A stronger system there will mean a stronger one up here. 

I think your idea of a more phased (west) system is correct. We will proabably need another 48 hours to resolve any questions that remain regarding track, intensity etc. But decent potential for a very heavy rain/wind event in the metro region.

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10 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

I think your idea of a more phased (west) system is correct. We will proabably need another 48 hours to resolve any questions that remain regarding track, intensity etc. But decent potential for a very heavy rain/wind event in the metro region.

It's becoming likely there will be a PRE on Fri as well before what's left of Nicole makes it here. That looks to be well west of us. Looking like it's becoming the usual PA/NJ soaker and NYC east showery/windy with these systems. At least we have something interesting happening.

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3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

My hope would be for the eastern track-more rain area wide which we still need and less wind. I tend to think the west track is more likely which means more rain in PA/NJ and 60+ mph wind for NYC and east, which has also been the most common the last few years with these tropical/transitioning systems. If the Euro insists on it that much and now the GFS is trending to it, it’s likely more right. 

we'll all get at least an inch or two of rain regardless of the track though

 

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Both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z ECMWF are calling for widespread damaging wind gusts up to 50 MPH across the area (includes many inland areas and coastal areas) with the passage of Nicole and the phasing with the Polar jet.  Timing on this would be Friday night and Saturday morning for worst impacts.  Places along the coast could see gusts closer to 60 mph with the Euro solution.

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13 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Both the 0Z GFS and the 0Z ECMWF are calling for widespread damaging wind gusts up to 50 MPH across the area (includes many inland areas and coastal areas) with the passage of Nicole and the phasing with the Polar jet.  Timing on this would be Friday night and Saturday morning for worst impacts.  Places along the coast could see gusts closer to 60 mph with the Euro solution.

60mph is right on the cusp of causing issues on the south shore. It’s really when you get Above 70mph. There are so few trees left.

I think this ends up

being more run of the mill 40/50mph gusts type deal. 

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