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Hurricane Nicole


GaWx
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23 minutes ago, Roger Smith said:

I don't see much "radar degradation" and the eye is still about 50% over the ocean. Is landfall when the eyewall hits the coast or when the center of the eye hits the coast? 

When the central portion of the storm crosses land. It should be making landfall soon if it hasn't already. Definitely took more of NW track recently so this may delay actual landfall a bit.

ASOS readings indicate it should be over land.

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2 hours ago, Roger Smith said:

The strong side of this eye is about to hit the Cape (Space coast) in about 2h from now, would say the eye is now 60% inland with the center about 20 miles south of Melbourne FL. 

Wind gusted to 100mph. atop Artemis.
I'm getting frequent gusts in the 60 range. Oh, that sound a ferocity greater than Ian. Power going out all over the place. 

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Nothing too exceptional here. Max gust of 37 kts, max sustained of 18 kts. My sensor is not ideally located but I'm at the mercy of the HOA.

 

image.thumb.png.f6b424169573671f8fe40335629645d6.png

 

 

Between Ian and Nicole, our large foxtail palm in the back is down to 2 fronds. I'll have to hit it with some fertilizer this weekend. Have a branch down from a live oak in the back, too. 3/4-1" diameter if I had to guess. Maybe a bit more. Overall, about what I expected.

No idea what the front of the house looks like yet, that's all boarded up.

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Looks like we finally have rotating cells beginning to come onshore. Also the water is pretty high as we head to low tide here in Charleston, I worry this evening as we head for another high tide at 9 PM that we have quite a bit of inundation as the beaches are really worked over from Ian already. Looks like a giant excavator rolled through

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So Nicole packed a little more punch than I anticipated here in EC FL. We had 2-3 hours of intense winds overnight and flooding rains. Definitely more punch than other late season storms (like Josephine in ‘95 or Gabrielle in ‘01) that were similar strength.



.

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 By looking at the county by county power outage map, one can get a good idea of where the highest winds were. In FL going up the coast, significant numbers of outages don't start til Indian River county, where Nicole made landfall. The next county up, Brevard, has by far the highest number and percentage in the state with 25% out (as mentioned above). Significant outages go as far north as St. John's (8%) in NE FL. Even way up here in SAV, my power was out for a couple of hours and just came back on.
 

In stark contrast, SE FL (which was on the weak side of the eye) has only a very low % out (under 2% St. Lucie county southward). 

 Although well inland, Orange county (Orlando) has 6% out and Marion county has 9% out. In NW FL, Madison county at 19% has the second highest percentage out! Does anyone know why?

 Overall, for a minimal hurricane, Nicole has been pretty impactful on the strong side of the eye. I'm pretty sure that most minimal hurricanes haven't had this much impact overall. This was aided by a strong gradient due to the big high that was to the north.

 

 

 

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BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Nicole Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022
400 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

...CENTER OF NICOLE STRADDLING THE COAST OF THE FLORIDA BIG BEND
REGION...
...POTENTIAL CONTINUES FOR STORM SURGE, STRONG WINDS, AND HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM EST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 83.2W
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM SE OF TALLAHASSEE FLORIDA
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES
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As to Nicole not being a 'cane at landfall, probably true near the center, but if you noted that report from the space center further north (100 mph gusts above the surface), I think what happened was that strongest winds decoupled from the core when the storm straddled the coast, and were ejected north. So there was a hurricane aspect to the landfall, but very non-classical as to location of that remnant. How are storm surge outcomes north of the Cape? That might be another aspect that was better anticipated from hurricane Nicole than TS Nicole designations. It's sort of like the Sandy landfall in that what the storm was named could mislead some vulnerable coastal residents, in hindsight many thought that Sandy should have been retained as a hurricane to landfall. Some in storm surge situations might have (wrongly) surmised that Sandy wasn't even a hurricane any more, and let their guard down. This was widely discussed IIRC in the days after landfall. Also a storm with a 16' storm surge and 90 mph wind gusts could safely be called a hurricane for a few extra hours. 

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3 hours ago, GaWx said:

 By looking at the county by county power outage map, one can get a good idea of where the highest winds were. In FL going up the coast, significant numbers of outages don't start til Indian River county, where Nicole made landfall. The next county up, Brevard, has by far the highest number and percentage in the state with 25% out (as mentioned above). Significant outages go as far north as St. John's (8%) in NE FL. Even way up here in SAV, my power was out for a couple of hours and just came back on.
 

In stark contrast, SE FL (which was on the weak side of the eye) has only a very low % out (under 2% St. Lucie county southward). 

 Although well inland, Orange county (Orlando) has 6% out and Marion county has 9% out. In NW FL, Madison county at 19% has the second highest percentage out! Does anyone know why?

 Overall, for a minimal hurricane, Nicole has been pretty impactful on the strong side of the eye. I'm pretty sure that most minimal hurricanes haven't had this much impact overall. This was aided by a strong gradient due to the big high that was to the north.

 

 

 

Orange County looked to peak at several hours of sustained TS (35-38 mph) with gusts to mid 50s. I heard transformers popping this morning. 

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