NeffsvilleWx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 37 minutes ago, GaWx said: 1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM. Also worth nothing, Euro maintains intensity. No further strengthening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
w1pf Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 The 1PM Nicole advisory map showing tropical-storm force winds over the whole FL peninsula is just wrong. FLZ041-047-054-059-064-141-147-092000- EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA CITY SKY/WX TMP DP RH WIND PRES REMARKS DAYTONA BEACH HVY RAIN 71 69 93 N24G32 29.96F FOG DELAND RAIN 68 66 95 N16G23 29.98F FOG JFK SPACE CTR PTSUNNY 74 64 69 NE23G36 29.88F TITUSVILLE LGT RAIN 77 70 78 NE20G29 29.91F FOG CAPE CANAVERAL RAIN 75 70 83 NE24G32 29.84F PATRICK AFB PTSUNNY 75 73 94 N30G37 29.83F MELBOURNE CLOUDY 74 71 91 N22G35 29.87F VERO BEACH RAIN 76 73 91 N29G37 29.81F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windspeed Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Best radar presentation yet. More symmetrical eyewall, though not fully closed ATM. The W to SW semicircle however is looking better organized and currently raking Grand Bahama, which should be ongoing for a while this afternoon with current motion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 Summary of 12Z runs at FL landfall south to north for documentation purposes: GFS, HWRF: Stuart ICON, CMC: Vero Beach HAFS: Sebastian Euro: just south of Melbourne UKMET, HMON, NAM: Melbourne Stuart to Melbourne is 65 miles straight line 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 34 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 12Z UKMET is straight westerly til 4PM EST, when it has Nicole at the eastern end of Grand Bahama Island. Then it turns WNW from then through midnight. After that it turns NW til the 4AM landfall at Melbourne. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Weather channel at my hotel. Can't attach a pic unfortunately, file too big 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Nicole will strengthen over the Gulf Stream, especially with the tighter core. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dbullsfan Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 As long as Tampa remains in the cone the assumption should always be it will turn to the north quicker than expected. Nicole most likely doesn’t even sniff the west coast of Florida and just works her way up the center of the state. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 11 minutes ago, FPizz said: Weather channel at my hotel. Can't attach a pic unfortunately, file too big You have a webcam?? How about a website link? is this the one with the beach erosion. UGH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 As long as it is near the E tip of Grand Bahama Island at the 4PM advisory, it wouldn't be tracking south of any of the models. It is only then when it would need to start turning WNW to not be tracking south of the models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 A storm pic from Coopers Town as Nicole passed. https://twitter.com/Tribune242/status/1590431132113580032?t=IjG5Oh36pRIpJn_xnRaCiQ&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TradeWinds Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 A doorbell video from Abaco. Looks like what you would expect from a TS. https://twitter.com/NashWX/status/1590433968822026240?t=OTtGHJ03ch35aw3Ipsr-fQ&s=19 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, TradeWinds said: A doorbell video from Abaco. Looks like what you woukd expect from a TS. https://twitter.com/NashWX/status/1590433968822026240?t=OTtGHJ03ch35aw3Ipsr-fQ&s=19 Curious about the second eyewall. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Has anyone calculated the IKE for Nicole? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 4 hours ago, Hoosier said: The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast. You should read more and post less too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Floydbuster Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 I cannot properly describe with words how eery and awe inspiring it is outside right now. Constant wind and rain. I can feel the power in the air, and it is the same look and feel as when we got real hurricanes in the past. Outer bands keep popping up and hitting us, we’re in a zone with extremely exotic dynamics, near the boundary of the inner and outer band zones. The clouds are just roaring along at the speed of a car on the highway 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hyphnx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Drove down from Virginia, the outer bands were pretty intense in the Daytona Beach area. We are staying in Orlando and it seems pretty calm, wind wise. Rain seems to be picking up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan2 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Now have Hurricane Nicole 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, Modfan2 said: Now have Hurricane Nicole 000 WTNT62 KNHC 092258 CCA TCUAT2 Hurricane Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 600 PM EST Wed Nov 09 2022 Corrected header ...NICOLE BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MAKING LANDFALL ON GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND... Recent observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Nicole has strengthened in to a hurricane. The maximum winds are estimated to be 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. SUMMARY OF 600 PM EST...2300 UTC...INFORMATION --------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...26.6N 78.4W ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF FREEPORT ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES $$ Forecaster Roberts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 That’s a 5 mb drop. What the reasonable lid on deepening prior to FL landfall? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 hours ago, Prospero said: You have a webcam?? How about a website link? is this the one with the beach erosion. UGH I'm in Jacksonville beach. Got a pic with Reynolds Wolf 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clyde Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Looks like South Daytona is going to have some real problems overnight. They have evacuated multiple high rise condos that they have deemed at risk of ‘complete structural failure’.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TPAwx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 976mb reading on current pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 14 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. Wtf? Not close to Sandy strength. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AChilders Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 18 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Just starting to cross the warmer core of Gulf stream, I would say Nicole reaches at least low end cat-2 at some point tonight, possibly mid-range cat-2, and also performs more of a curve north than model consensus, earlier was asking people what they thought of a grazing coastal track, possibly some inland movement now probable, but I think Nicole will try to stay over warm water as long as it can, could mean a landfall Jupiter to Melbourne. Never all that far inland, heads up NNW with enough of circulation over water to retain cat-1 intensity for quite a while, strong TS near Georgia coast in 36-42h. Long duration fetch means storm surge issues must be taken very seriously. This is now almost as strong as Sandy approaching NJ and Staten Island comes to mind. Were not the storm surge forecasts lowballed there? Or did people not take accurate warnings seriously? One or other as I recall. While this isn't close to Sandy in size or strength, I do think with the duration and size of the wind field that the surge is being under forecasted. There could definitely be areas that see 6-8' of storm surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Sandy! there it is 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 Please take the banter to the correct thread and stop with the hyperbole 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 10, 2022 Share Posted November 10, 2022 I feel like this is probably not quite right... 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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