Hurricane Nicole

[NorthHillsWx]

https://radars.bahamasweather.org.bs/

[WinterWolf]

2 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Seriously? Cat 3 is likely? I’m not seeing it, but your the pro I guess. 

[Prismshine Productions]

Kept it at 70 at 7am

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[Modfan2]

48 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Seriously? Cat 3 is likely? I’m not seeing it, but your the pro I guess. 

While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

[olafminesaw]

4 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

While I agree I don’t see CAT 3 on this; the Gulf Stream here is only 1-10 miles off shore  from West Palm to Ft Pierce so I can see it strengthen to possibly a CAT 2

The gulf stream isn't really any warmer than the water Nicole is currently traversing. The warmest waters it will cross will be just before reaching the Bahamas 

[NorthHillsWx]

Dry air and a stable environment are main inhibitors, per NHC. Dry air is extremely easy to see on water vapor 

[CIK62]

Not even an inch for NYC now.      Down from 3", three days ago.      Rains from say, Friday Noon to early Saturday AM.      GFS says T of 70 with strong southerly winds at 4AM Saturday!       45 by Sunday AM.

[WxSynopsisDavid]

The combination of high ocean heat content, Gulf Stream, and notable warm eddies does point towards Category 3 being the ceiling and a real possibility now.

[FPizz]

Sea is angry here in Neptune Beach

[NorthHillsWx]

Nicole Is getting its act together today. Bahamas radar shows an extremely pretty radar presentation. Gonna see if it can maintain convection through the minimum today unlike yesterday but hi res models are showing just that and have been by the time it reaches the Bahamas. It would not shock me to see cat 2 based on recon and radar trends if the storm can maintain deep convection 

[Windspeed]

Nice little reminder about cold pool aloft and tropopause cloud top temperatures. Convection is never going to look as impressive as a hurricane at the same latitude from June into October. Cloudtops simply don't reach those heights or get as cold as previous months from a tropical surface low. Doesn't mean you can't get a strong hurricane as long as core convection is organized.

[PSLwx]

At 7:10 AM EST, 2 E Sewalls Point [Amz555 Co, FL] MESONET reports TROPICAL STORM. FSWN HOUSE OF REFUGE WEATHERSTEM STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 50KT/ 58MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST.

[buckeyefan1]

5 hours ago, turtlehurricane said:

This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses.

I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. 
 

This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making.

Read more and post less before you find yourself on the outside looking in 

[the_other_guy]

1 hour ago, FPizz said:

Sea is angry here in Neptune Beach

On takeoff out of West Palm Beach this morning

 

 

[Modfan2]

Already seeing some flooding on Hutchin Island in Stuart near Bathtub Beach and inlet

[jbenedet]

1 hour ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Nicole Is getting its act together today. Bahamas radar shows an extremely pretty radar presentation. Gonna see if it can maintain convection through the minimum today unlike yesterday but hi res models are showing just that and have been by the time it reaches the Bahamas. It would not shock me to see cat 2 based on recon and radar trends if the storm can maintain deep convection 

There was a relatively cool eddy Nicole passed over yesterday evening - 26-27c isotherm.  My thinking is this was a big contributor to rapid warming  of the convection. And that’s been validated by the big changes today while atmospheric conditions are largely the same.

[PSLwx]

15 minutes ago, Modfan2 said:

Already seeing some flooding on Hutchin Island in Stuart near Bathtub Beach and inlet

 

[NorthHillsWx]

Really a pretty impressive look on satellite atm. Don’t see any real change to environment between now and landfall, still will be limited by dry air. Don’t think anything inhibits gradual strengthening though. 70-80kts would be my guess with an 85 max and 65 minimum. Significant event for time of year and surge will be maximized by fetch, wind direction piling water up for days, and moon.  

[Windspeed]

There was a relatively cool eddy Nicole passed over yesterday evening - 26-27c isotherm.  My thinking is this was a big contributor to rapid warming  of the convection. And that’s been validated by the big changes today while atmospheric conditions are largely the same.

Good for discussion, but I think dry air entrainment was a bigger factor yesterday through this morning. Upper tropospheric temperatures are cooler therefore 26-27°C OHC can be quite sufficent for evaporate induced strong lapse rates to drive convection. We've seen strong late hurricanes in the middle of the Atlantic Basin over relatively moderate SSTs, even around the 26°C threshold as that threshold can drop several degrees based on upper environmental conditions. In other words, if Nicole can mix out the dry air, I do not think the moderate SSTs will be as big a deterrent for strengthening this evening. The Bahama landmasses are also not very big with respect to being a deterrent for strengthening as well. Perhaps for already intense hurricanes or stalled ones there, yes. But not one with a fairly decent relative forward motion. I do think Nicole will become a hurricane tonight despite the small interactions with land and the moderate SSTs if the core can be successful at mixing out the southerly fetch of a dry airmass. We shall see.

[Hotair]

000
WTNT62 KNHC 091653
TCUAT2

Tropical Storm Nicole Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL172022
1155 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

...NICOLE MAKES LANDFALL ON GREAT ABACO ISLAND...

Weather radar data from the Bahamas and surface observations 
indicate that the center of Nicole has made landfall on Great Abaco 
Island in the northwestern Bahamas with an estimated intensity of 
70 mph (110 km/h).  A private weather station on Elbow Cay, just 
east of Great Abaco Island, reported a minimum pressure of 986.8 mb 
(29.14 inches) as the center passed near it.  Data from an Air 
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that the estimated 
minimum pressure is 985 mb (29.09 inches). 

SUMMARY OF 1155 AM EST...1655 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 77.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM N OF MARSH HARBOR GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Normandy]

Category 3 would be an extreme overperform I think.  That being said, I think the NW fetch of winds is going to cause tons of beach erosion and surge damage on the E coast of Florida.  Holding firm low end Cat 2, landfall between WPB and FL.

 

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Read more and post less before you find yourself on the outside looking in 

The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. 

There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast.

[TPAwx]

5 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. 

There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast.

He’s also the resident SME on outer band forecasting and dynamics.

[Richie]

8 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The past is not predictive, but I recall him doing quite well with projecting Ian's intensity. 

There's an overall hyperbolic flair with him, but there's probably some potential upside on intensity compared to the official forecast.

I think it's beyond "hyperbolic flair" when you say that a category 3 is "quite likely" and "might even track as far south as Miami." As of the 1 PM intermediary update, Dade has been removed from even a tropical storm watch.

[Hoosier]

7 minutes ago, Richie said:

I think it's beyond "hyperbolic flair" when you say that a category 3 is "quite likely" and "might even track as far south as Miami." As of the 1 PM intermediary update, Dade has been removed from even a tropical storm watch.

Well, he's gonna have to explain why he feels like it could go that far south.

[GaWx]

1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM.

2. Similar to the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET went 30 miles north to Melbourne! Why so far north? Because it moves NW from 11PM to a 3AM landfall, which is a later landfall than the midnight to 1AM landfalls of recent runs.

Last 4 runs UKMET:

18Z Vero
0Z Ft. Pierce
6Z Vero
12Z Melbourne

12Z HMON is also way up near Melbourne, similar to its three prior runs back to yesterday's 18Z.

[PSLwx]

At 11:05 AM EST, 5 NE Port Canaveral [Brevard Co, FL] OTHER FEDERAL reports TROPICAL STORM. USSF WIND TOWER 3 MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 49KTS/ 56MPH FROM THE NORTHEAST.

At 1:15 PM EST, 2 ENE Daytona Beach [Amz550 Co, FL] MESONET reports TROPICAL STORM. FSWN BEACH SAFETY HEADQUARTERS WEATHERSTEM STATION MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 43KT/ 50MPH.

[Weather Mike]

26 minutes ago, GaWx said:

1. 12Z Euro is way north to just south of Melbourne! Also, landfall isn't til 4AM.

2. Similar to the 12Z Euro, 12Z UKMET went 30 miles north to Melbourne! Why so far north? Because it moves NW from 11PM to a 3AM landfall, which is a later landfall than the midnight to 1AM landfalls of recent runs.

Last 4 runs UKMET:

18Z Vero
0Z Ft. Pierce
6Z Vero
12Z Melbourne

12Z HMON is also way up near Melbourne, similar to its three prior runs back to yesterday's 18Z.

With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 

 

[Prismshine Productions]

With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 
 

Trough is already at the Texas/Colorado border, it is gonna start feeling that tug

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[chris21]

8 minutes ago, Weather Mike said:

With that High pressure you think its going to allow it to all of a sudden head NW that quickly from now vs allow it to head almost due west then begin the NW track after landfall ? 

 

Every model shifted north significantly at 12z. We’ll see.