StruThiO Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 All I gotta say is. I hope people are taking this one seriously despite the calendar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 986mb on the dropsonde not much wind at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 TS wind field. HUGE On the current forecasted track my location will be in the RFQ for an extended period of time. I'm about 40miles W. abeam of DAB. Already observing gusts in the 30mph range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 The structure has certainly improved. However, the core convection has really dried out this afternoon. We should see more fire overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 We've had gusts to 40 mph on Tampa Bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Wow that recon pass really just ramped things up quick. On the verge of being a hurricane now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Already some 40 mph gusts at PBI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Gusts to 40-45 near Jax Naval. Pretty wild already a couple blocks from the St. John’s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdennis78 Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Local mets are all over the place with rain for the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast. Is it possible to get a good handle on the amounts we could see in northern NJ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Hmmm….gotta be really close to hurricane Nicole. Maybe 70mph.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 New dropsonde says 984 mb. It's doing quite well considering the core is currently pretty hollow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 The 12zHAFS nailed the evolution today if you flip through the IR frames. Like, shocking really. Gets convection ramping up again around midnight 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Normandy Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 ^ Agreed. Any deep convection and this is a solid Cat 1/2 cane with this structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 8, 2022 Share Posted November 8, 2022 Outer bands are here. It’s getting wild. I’m out trying to get supplies. Neglected preparations due to work… it was my own choice so I can’t complain… 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Kept it 65mph, pressure 984 on the 7pm updateSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SENC Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 decent thunder storms ya say? /sarc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prospero Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 The strongest winds right now are on the NC coast. So far the highest gust I've seen is 58 at Alligator Bridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSLwx Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 At 7:51 PM EST, 4 NNE Walton [St. Lucie Co, FL] MESONET reports NON-TSTM WND GST of M46 MPH. WEATHERFLOW STATION XSTL AT THE SAINT LUCIE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT MEASURED A WIND GUST OF 40KT/46MPH FROM THE NORTH-NORTHEAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Current satellite image reminds me of an eagle attacking a school of tuna, all that's needed is a bun and some mayo. Anyone else getting the sense that Nicole may not really make a landfall in FL but may just graze the east coast of the state and move towards coastal GA? http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 12 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: Current satellite image reminds me of an eagle attacking a school of tuna, all that's needed is a bun and some mayo. Anyone else getting the sense that Nicole may not really make a landfall in FL but may just graze the east coast of the state and move towards coastal GA? http://www.weather.gc.ca/data/satellite/goes_eusa_1070_100.jpg No chance. High pressure way too strong 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 3 minutes ago, AnthonyEC said: No chance. High pressure way too strong Agree that high is going to force it into Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cptcatz Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Looks like it's trying to pop some convection on the western eyewall. Needs it to stick if it's gonna intensify some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Up to 70mph at 10pmSent from my SM-S102DL using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeNormanStormin Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 CAT 2 at landfall is my guestimate Structure is solid 100 mph hurricane into Brevard county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 Tropical Storm Nicole Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL172022 1000 PM EST Tue Nov 08 2022 Nicole's satellite appearance has changed little since this afternoon. Deep convection is not very strong near the center of the cyclone at this time, and there appears to be some dry air intrusions into the circulation as evidenced by water vapor imagery. Nonetheless, wind and central pressure observations from NOAA and Air Force Hurricane aircraft indicate that the system is very close to hurricane strength and the current advisory intensity is set to 60 kt. Center fixes indicate that the cyclone is moving west-southwestward, or about 250/9 kt The track forecast philosophy is basically the same as in the previous advisory package. Nicole should move west-southwestward to westward, on the south side of an eastward-moving high pressure area, for the next 24 hours. Thereafter, the system should turn northwestward and then northward along the western side of the high. In 3-5 days, Nicole is likely to accelerate northeastward over the eastern United States, to the east of a large mid-level trough. The track model guidance has not changed significantly, nor has the official forecast. This is near the southern edge of the guidance suite for the next 1-2 days, and roughly in the middle of the guidance thereafter. Nicole will be moving over fairly warm SSTs of 27-28 degrees Celsius during the next day or so. However, the SHIPS guidance indicates that the vertical shear will be 25 kt or higher, with low-to mid-tropospheric humidities on the order of 50 percent, during the next 24 hours. Nicole is likely to become a hurricane soon but, given the marginal dynamic and thermodynamic environment, significant strengthening seems unlikely. The official intensity forecast is near or above the available model guidance, and closely follows the decay-SHIPS model after landfall. Weakening is expected after Nicole moves inland over Florida and Georgia and while it accelerates northeastward over the southeastern United States. The cyclone should complete extratropical transition by 72 hours and merge with another extratropical low near Atlantic Canada in 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyEC Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 1 hour ago, LakeNormanStormin said: CAT 2 at landfall is my guestimate Structure is solid 100 mph hurricane into Brevard county I’m Not sure there is enough time to get there or enough latent heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted November 9, 2022 Author Share Posted November 9, 2022 0Z UKMET continued the south trend on landfall and does so at Ft. Pierce vs Vero Beach on the 18Z: TROPICAL STORM NICOLE ANALYSED POSITION : 27.3N 74.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.11.2022 0 27.3N 74.6W 991 46 1200UTC 09.11.2022 12 26.9N 76.4W 990 45 0000UTC 10.11.2022 24 26.9N 79.2W 987 47 1200UTC 10.11.2022 36 28.5N 82.0W 989 39 0000UTC 11.11.2022 48 30.1N 84.6W 992 33 1200UTC 11.11.2022 60 32.8N 84.6W 998 25 0000UTC 12.11.2022 72 39.5N 81.2W 994 20 1200UTC 12.11.2022 84 45.7N 73.4W 985 33 0000UTC 13.11.2022 96 48.6N 61.0W 987 44 1200UTC 13.11.2022 108 CEASED TRACKING Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses. I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making. 4 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 34 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: This is gonna be such a good day to be a hurricane meteorologist in Southeast Florida. We’re already getting one intense band after the next, and the hurricane will be rapidly getting closer and stronger as the day progresses. I think Cat 3 landfall is quite likely. Conditions are extremely favorable and it will go insane over the Gulf Stream. It could also directly hit the densely populated Southeast Florida metro area. It might even track as far south as Miami. This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making. Better let the NHC know then since their latest disco says barely any strengthening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 9, 2022 Share Posted November 9, 2022 35 minutes ago, turtlehurricane said: This is not a minimal hurricane situation at all. This is an extremely powerful hurricane in the making. Extremely powerful hurricane, y'all! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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