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Hurricane Nicole


GaWx
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1 hour ago, GaWx said:

   I think the 12Z UKMET track is probably too far north because it initialized at 26.3 N, 69.1 W. The NHC actual position for then was 25.9 N, 69.1 W. This means Nicole was initialized by the 12Z UKMET ~30 miles too far north.
 

So how far further south does that translate to at landfall? Vero Beach area?  That would still make it a N outlier.

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Question for the experts on the board. 

In the Hurricane watch Statement the NHC mentions the possibility of 80 MPH gusts all the way down to Hallandale Beach. Looking at Weather.US wind gust maps of 5 different models for southern PBC I see nothing higher than the high 40s as gusts. Presumably sustained would be lower.

 

Am I missing something or is the NHC just being extra cautious because of what happened with Ian?

 

Thanks in advance

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44 minutes ago, bigtenfan said:

So how far further south does that translate to at landfall? Vero Beach area?  That would still make it a N outlier.

 

Not a 1:1 translation.

An initialization error will have ripple effects downstream that can translate to significantly different -- sometimes extreme -- outcomes when compared to properly initialized models.

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 The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

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9 minutes ago, GaWx said:

 The recon had it at 26.5N, 70.5W a little before 2 PM EST. The 10AM NHC forecast for 7 PM is for 27.0N, 70.5W. So, Nicole is already as far west as and 35 miles south of the NHC position for 5 hours later! Does anyone feel confident about the implications on future track adjustments? Further south? Or something different?

It appears another recon flight will be in the storm in 4-5 hours. It will be interesting to see if the LLC continues to move south or moves back to the W or NW in that timeframe.

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16 minutes ago, floridapirate said:

It will probably, but then again it might not.  With the storm track today there is a 50-50 chance of cancellation.  

@jllevin79 If not cancelled, there will probably be shifting winds in squalls, which will cause ground stops/delays.  Also look where your flight to TPA originated at before your airport.  Coming out of PBI or MIA/FLL almost certainly suggests either cancelled or delayed.  I've been on badly delayed flights because of weather in distant cities.

 

OT- Nicole just spit out 'an' LLC within a broader within a broader center from beneath convection.  Probably forms a new LLC, but not a sign intensification will be anything but slow.

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GEFS taking this just south of TB on 18z run.

Power outages and downed trees/vegetation likely the primary impacts here.  Debris cleanup is mostly but not completely done from Ian.

Suppose the solutions that take it offshore would bring fetch up the bays and could present some flooding issues for parts of the area.

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4 hours ago, Floydbuster said:

Video Update on Nicole

I wish I had archived that Unisys track database fully as only the front page had been crawled to Wayback and 1 other before they turfed it along with some maps. I noticed that Yankee and Kate hurricanes are in that Unisys track map format which was always my favorite. I did locate them on different random sites but was there another source of more? Other formats are so unappealing I'd rather just have the software myself.

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0Z UKMET: This is even more of a northern outlier with landfall Cape Canaveral vs slightly south of CC on 12Z run. 0Z is about 20 miles north of 12Z landfall and is slightly stronger. This track is 30+ miles further north than all 31 0Z GEFS members!


 This initialized at 26.9N, 70.7W. The NHC actual position then was 26.7N, 70.8W. So, it initialized ~15 miles NNE of actual, which is not too far off.

TROPICAL STORM NICOLE     ANALYSED POSITION : 26.9N  70.7W

     ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL172022

                        LEAD                 CENTRAL     MAXIMUM WIND
      VERIFYING TIME    TIME   POSITION   PRESSURE (MB)  SPEED (KNOTS)
      --------------    ----   --------   -------------  -------------
    0000UTC 08.11.2022    0  26.9N  70.7W     1001            36
    1200UTC 08.11.2022   12  27.7N  72.2W     1000            38
    0000UTC 09.11.2022   24  27.0N  74.3W      998            42
    1200UTC 09.11.2022   36  26.9N  76.1W      997            43
    0000UTC 10.11.2022   48  27.3N  78.3W      995            47
    1200UTC 10.11.2022   60  28.8N  81.3W      993            42
    0000UTC 11.11.2022   72  29.9N  83.4W      995            32
    1200UTC 11.11.2022   84  32.3N  83.7W     1000            29
    0000UTC 12.11.2022   96  37.6N  79.7W      996            33
    1200UTC 12.11.2022  108  43.8N  72.7W      984            40
    0000UTC 13.11.2022  120  47.8N  61.5W      979            52
    1200UTC 13.11.2022  132              CEASED TRACKING
 

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Intensifies up to landfall (near 975 mb) on HWRF.  Large eye or eye like feature near Port St. Lucie (I lived in Orlando, for a year, but don't know the FL East Coast well, other than Daytona-KSC-Cocoa Beach).  Speaking of, sustained storm (50 knot) winds to near there on the coast, gales extend well N.  Surge would seem to be larger than a purely tropical system.

 

Semi-related- how well does the HWRF usually do with hybrid systems?

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  • GaWx changed the title to Hurricane Nicole

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